CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Blizzard of 1993...we got 5" of snow then sleet then dryslot and drizzle. Disgusting. West Hartford had like 20". Nothing can top that from a brutal crushing standpoint. That would of killed me but I was living in Denver back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RGEM a big hit for western half. Holds warmth near 81. Buf gets pummeled. Buf is a lock now. Roc is close. Now let’s get the Cuse into the solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Not concerned about the RGEM tbh. I'm actually not concerned about any precip output on any one model as they will all be different for sure. Im more concerned about the mid level lp's as that is what delivers the goods to get the precip to fall, lol. Can't see the mid levels on the RGEM unfortunately as I'd like to see what happens with both the H850 and the H700lp's and how they track. Perhaps Weather.us has the mid level but I'm not sure. SO far the NAM is in 1st place and the GFS is incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Agreed. Just got my eye on that pesky slot that shows up between the two surface lows. I think anywhere to the north of the 700 should be good to go. Fun stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Agreed. Just got my eye on that pesky slot that shows up between the two surface lows. I think anywhere to the north of the 700 should be good to go. Fun stuff. That's the sort of feature that could cause some heartbreak. Not saying it's real but these redevelopers usually offer tricks and treats...so trying to contain my NAM weenie enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 IMO this is most likely option but shave off a few inches for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS a little north, going to be another massive hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Stronger and further North much like the Nam tbh, lol, but its still early in the run but it looks good to these eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 So nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 3" per hour stuff in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Completely closed off wave. I haven't seen a track like this since I've been following weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 That is the best run yet for WNY, just unreal. Closes off at the perfect time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Central NY doesn't do as well because the primary holds on longer than past runs so the transfer doesn't complete until it's too late. Definitely a possibility. If this does occur there will most likely be a dry slot somewhere in central NY that will receive much lower snowfall totals. Has high bust potential for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Central NY doesn't do as well because the primary holds on longer than past runs so the transfer doesn't complete until it's too late. Definitely a possibility. If this does occur there will most likely be a dry slot somewhere in central NY that will receive much lower snowfall totals. Has high bust potential for most areas. GFS torches New England with just scraps for most of it. Not sure it’s right but interesting nonetheless. Hearing the trash can rattle right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'm not buying the GFS's thermal output as it has us close to 40F at 1AM Friday. That's NOT happening with a closed off H500LP to our SW then heads due east through PA. All other upper level features all head due East just to our South in CPA. All systems are a go and it looks like the models ( at least the American Model suite so far) have converged at least on the track so that to me is a win so far and being this close in its a lock that we're about to see one of the best synoptic systems around these parts in quite some time! WInds may also become a factor with it being this close to our CWA so paste and wind doesn't mix to well but we can deal with that after the event, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: GFS torches New England with just scraps for most of it. Not sure it’s right but interesting nonetheless. Hearing the trash can rattle right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm not buying the GFS's thermal output as it has us close to 40F at 1AM Friday. That's NOT happening with a closed off H500LP to our SW then heads due east through PA. All other upper level features all head due East just to our South in CPA. All systems are a go and it looks like the models ( at least the American Model suite so far) have converged at least on the track so that to me is a win so far and being this close in its a lock that we're about to see one of the best synoptic systems around these parts in quite some time! WInds may also become a factor with it being this close to our CWA so paste and wind doesn't mix to well but we can deal with that after the event, lol! It could happen because with this run the primary stays the primary for quite a bit while longer than before. When the transition occurs to an offshore low the primary doesn't penetrate NE with warm air like this run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Oh to be a meteorologist in Connecticut. Take the bridge already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Was going to wait for Euro for final call but WSW for all of WNY in overnight forecast 8-14" of heavy wet snow with higher totals possible in higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 True weather porn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Accuweather has gone dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 No that’s wb version of the Gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Central NY doesn't do as well because the primary holds on longer than past runs so the transfer doesn't complete until it's too late. Definitely a possibility. If this does occur there will most likely be a dry slot somewhere in central NY that will receive much lower snowfall totals. Has high bust potential for most areas. 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I'm sure they'll be a spot in Central Oneida county that gets 4" while 5 miles away they get close to a foot, lol. Look at Onondaga, lol, the NE portion gets 5" less than Fulton thats 15 miles away. I know its elevation dependent but come on, lol! I'm at 495' is that gonna matter, lol?I completely understand So. onondaga cty getting pounded but the rest of the output is just weird is all but I'll take my ft and run. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Canadian Funniest one I've seen yet, lol. These precip maps are just hilarious and almost NEVER verify. Someone should do an experiment with perhaps tomorrows 12Z runs. Take the precip output from every model out there and then see which one came the closest to verifying. I think I will do that tomorrow and then I will post the results! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.