rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Euro gets pretty cold at end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 312 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 NYZ006-008-011615- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.180302T0500Z-180303T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.180302T0300Z-180303T0300Z/ Oswego-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville 312 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected. * WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions. Submit snow reports through our website or social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Local Mets calling 12 to 14 buffalo north...seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think the easiest forecast is 6-12" from WNY into Central NY with isolated lollies of 15-20" in elevations above 1k feet. I guess I'll still go with 4" for Toronto, 6" if I'm really lucky. You guys in Buffalo look to get pounded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 06z NAM and gfs both crush BUF. 16-20” at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 KBGM forecast maps...quite the spread between exp texted and max 1 in 10 chance. Nervous much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, Syrmax said: KBGM forecast maps...quite the spread between exp texted and max 1 in 10 chance. Nervous much? The prudent question would be, What has to happen for the higher end to occur as the spread is enormous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It could be, the espected totals is the GFS and the highest possible is the Nam, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hopefully the euro is off its game, or this map going bust big time lol Many individual ensembles members are pretty far south as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 KBGM Onondaga-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna- Northern Wayne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Cortland, Norwich, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, and Equinunk 415 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, are expected. The higher end totals will be found over the higher elevations in the area. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna and Northern Wayne Counties. In New York, Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Chenango, Tioga and Broome Counties. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult, including during the morning commute on Friday. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph Friday afternoon will cause areas blowing and drifting snow, along with scattered power outages. Snow could fall heavy at times after midnight tonight and into the day on Friday, with rates up to 2 inches per hour possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, wolfie09 said: Hopefully the euro is off its game, or this map going bust big time lol Many individual ensembles members are pretty far south as well... Euro hasn't been that consistent last 2 days, same with GFS. GFS more or less caved to NAM whereas Euro went it's own way. Hard to dismiss Euro given its pedigree though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Both offices didn't even mention the EURO in their discussions. They took a blend of the NWP and went with it. I think their on the NAM big time for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Posting clowns is my job. Actually might be close. The short range model HRRR says What S trend? This is the German. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Gotta say, besides that off run, the NAM has been the most consistent I think but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RGEM is plenty North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I will be saving all precip maps at 12Z so if you have em post em and I'll save em like I just did the German but that was 00Z or 06Z? I wanna do 12Z so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 That’s not the German, it’s the high Rez Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Icon is basically 8”-12” for mostly everyone.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Could see a scenario where say Euro is more right in some areas whereas it's worse in others. A mixed bag. The NAM is about the only model that unloads in NE with snow. Maybe it's off there but more or less right elsewhere along with the balance of other modeling. Ive seen this before, where NAM or GFS gets bashed but it performed ok IMBY. And vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I posted both. The German and high Rez Canadian. All the stuff I’m seeing brings that primary to north of pitt Initial precip should be solid. I guess the big snow depends on what kinda deformation hangs back once the energy transfers. You can’t dismiss the Euro and NAM with their South trends. Hey, we all get 6”+. That ain’t bad. Nailing down that 18” is the rub. I was always bullish on this set up. It’s a great set up. Climatologically the timing is freaking perfect!! Diurnally (never concerned me) the timing is perfect. F..., drive a 989 just N of Pitt and transfer to NYC ? Fu.. yeah! Buf- 12 Roc- 18 Bristol- 23 Syr 17” Fulton- 13 Irondequoit- 12” Bing 9 NYC 1 Alb 12 went big on Roc because of lake enhancement. Can we stop with the elevation nonsense? It’s plenty cold after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 FYI map from KALB...its all elevation. Looks like HV gets downsloped and/or too warm BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Winged it on the far eastern ones. They’ll have the precip type and elevation issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I wouldn’t call it all elevation, just mostly like me my old stomping grounds of herkimer in the western Mohawk valley.. Feel for the HV, I lived there too , wasn’t fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I think KALB is getting shadowed by the berks and the Catskills get intense upslope conditions and thats where I think 20" totals will be most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I posted both. The German and high Rez Canadian. All the stuff I’m seeing brings that primary to north of pitt Initial precip should be solid. I guess the big snow depends on what kinda deformation hangs back once the energy transfers. You can’t dismiss the Euro and NAM with their South trends. Hey, we all get 6”+. That ain’t bad. Nailing down that 18” is the rub. I was always bullish on this set up. It’s a great set up. Climatologically the timing is freaking perfect!! Diurnally (never concerned me) the timing is perfect. F..., drive a 989 just N of Pitt and transfer to NYC ? Fu.. yeah! Buf- 12 Roc- 18 Bristol- 23 Syr 17” Fulton- 13 Irondequoit- 12” Bing 9 NYC 1 Alb 12 went big on Roc because of lake enhancement. Can we stop with the elevation nonsense? It’s plenty cold after midnight. Best dynamics are over wny. No lake enhancement with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hunter MT can see upwards of 30" if it all comes together right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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