psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Do we have to ruin the last 4 weeks or so of winter every year because it's almost spring? If we throw away feb 10 on our snow climo would really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: By the long range, it’s basically March and the party is pretty much over. 2014-15 basically didn't even start until 2/15 and ended up going down as a year to remember. For some fun reading, pull up the Feb 2015 long range thread for this exact period. It was as dire as it gets. lol. This year might go down in flames in comparison but we have 5 weeks to confirm it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 2014-15 basically didn't even start until 2/15 and ended up going down as a year to remember. For some fun reading, pull up the Feb 2015 long range thread for this exact period. It was as dire as it gets. lol. This year might go down in flames in comparison but we have 5 weeks to confirm it. Amen. Every year some people act like they want to toss the last 1/3 of our winter in the trash just because they can sniff spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: By the long range, it’s basically March and the party is pretty much over. Not even close. Only real thing that matters is sun angle, and that can easily be overcome. On March 15th 2014 it was 70 degrees On March 16th it was 50s On March 17th we got 8-10" of snow It only matters when it snows during the day, and temperatures are marginal. That's a concern any time it does that during the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Amen. Every year some people act like they want to toss the last 1/3 of our winter in the trash just because they can sniff spring. EPS is actually picking up the # of members for a follow up wave between Thurs-Fri next week. Similar to what the Navgem does. Can't discount the possibility yet. The initial shortwave is pretty locked for rain but there's more than a subtle hint of a trailer. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Interesting 3-4 week outlook from CPC. Coin flip as to what happens temperature wise but expected to be drier than normal. NWS CPC Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 17 2018-Fri Mar 02 2018 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Given the stark discrepancy among dynamical model guidance that trends warmer and empirical guidance from the MJO suggesting a colder outlook focused over the Great Lakes, equal-chances of above- or below-normal temperatures are forecast from the Plains through the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The interest around D8 on the EPS def trended toward more ridging to our N with a CAD signal showing up. 00z Run: 12z Run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 2014-15 basically didn't even start until 2/15 and ended up going down as a year to remember. For some fun reading, pull up the Feb 2015 long range thread for this exact period. It was as dire as it gets. lol. This year might go down in flames in comparison but we have 5 weeks to confirm it. How do you retrieve past threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, wkd said: How do you retrieve past threads? You have to go back pretty far (18 pages of threads) https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45469-february-mid-to-long-range-threats-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You have to go back pretty far (18 pages of threads) https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45469-february-mid-to-long-range-threats-discussion/ Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, poolz1 said: The interest around D8 on the EPS def trended toward more ridging to our N with a CAD signal showing up. 00z Run: 12z Run: Actually been looking at around day 8 or so as a possibility since the overnight runs. Couple of things I like about the setup knowing some of the bias' on the models at this time. But.... Day 8 and the models haven't been exactly stellar so I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, wkd said: Thanks Start here for same time period. Lol. It's funny as heck. We are a broken record. When you get done laughing at us....skip to the next long range thread when it started breaking loose. The tone did a 180 and our shovels started wearing out. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45469-february-mid-to-long-range-threats-discussion/?page=31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Start here for same time period. Lol. It's funny as heck. We are a broken record. When you get done laughing at us....skip to the next long range thread when it started breaking loose. The tone did a 180 and our shovels started wearing out. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45469-february-mid-to-long-range-threats-discussion/?page=31 Even more so for 2014 iirc. eta: scratch that, 2014 was rocking! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?page=32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually been looking at around day 8 or so as a possibility since the overnight runs. Couple of things I like about the setup knowing some of the bias' on the models at this time. But.... Day 8 and the models haven't been exactly stellar so I guess we will see. Gefs has hp to our north as well. I can't recall a single time this winter where we had cold highs sliding across to our north all winter so I'll remain skeptical but it's on guidance and it's inside of 10 days. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs has hp to our north as well. I can't recall a single time this winter where we had cold highs sliding across to our north all winter so I'll remain skeptical but it's on guidance and it's inside of 10 days. Worth watching. An HP in the north that escapes the trap door? What does that look like? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 This keeps showing up on op runs and it's hinted off and on with the gefs. Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This keeps showing up on op runs and it's hinted off and on with the gefs. Hope isnt the trough axis way to east though...how is anything going to climb that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ji said: isnt the trough axis way to east though...how is anything going to climb that? Something would have to pinwheel and dig down the backside but with blocking and a 50/50 that can happen. Many of our snows 48 hours before have the lower heights to our northeast with nothing but ridging to our west. It's not ideal. The blocking there is a bit north of my liking but it's just building in there. If it drops some that becomes a very good look. But I'm not being overly picky about a day 16 prog. It's way closer to what we need then anything we've had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I am intrigued by Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Through 348 there isn’t 1 flake of snow on the op GFS. Nothing. That takes us to 17Feb. It’s remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Through 348 there isn’t 1 flake of snow on the op GFS. Nothing. That takes us to 17Feb. It’s remarkable. I think the writing is on the wall for this winter Im not saying its' not going to snow again this season because I'm sure it will at some point but we are going to have to fight for every inch we get...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Through 348 there isn’t 1 flake of snow on the op GFS. Nothing. That takes us to 17Feb. It’s remarkable. As I and others have posted, the GFS/GEFS has been consistently advertising some nice h5 looks up top in the LR. Check out the end of the 0z GFS op run- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: As I and others have posted, the GFS/GEFS has been consistently advertising some nice h5 looks up top in the LR. Check out the end of the 0z GFS op run- I see it. I’m just not ready to buy into it. We will see if it holds that look for the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see it. I’m just not ready to buy into it. We will see if it holds that look for the next week or so. I get that. We have seen this act before, so it is hard to buy. That said, if we are going to have a shot at a nice run for the last few weeks of winter, getting a -NAO period may be the only ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I get that. We have seen this act before, so it is hard to buy. That said, if we are going to have a shot at a nice run for the last few weeks of winter, getting a -NAO period may be the only ticket. To the end....Drago said that to Rocky in Rocky IV...I’m in. It’s true...-NAO is the only thing that can save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Interstate said: I am intrigued by Wednesday storm. Euro shifts initial storm Southward by about 100 miles. It's close, and I'm not sure how far South it can go. Certainly would take a whole lot of shifting to get close to any snow before abruptly changing to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 hours ago, Cobalt said: Euro shifts initial storm Southward by about 100 miles. It's close, and I'm not sure how far South it can go. Certainly would take a whole lot of shifting to get close to any snow before abruptly changing to rain The Wed event is warm going in, so it's rain. Maybe a change to snow on the tail end. Based on the the last 2 events and our overall lack of success with cold chasing rain, I wouldn't count on it amounting to anything, but it looks like the cold gets is pretty quick so who knows. Odds are we end up with what usually happens- precip shuts off just as cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 hours ago, BristowWx said: To the end....Drago said that to Rocky in Rocky IV...I’m in. It’s true...-NAO is the only thing that can save us. 0z and 6z GEFS still trying to develop a NA block towards mid month. Last few runs of EPS have improved somewhat. 12z hinted at some +heights building over GL, but 0z took a step back. Still a ways to go to get to a decent looking pattern for the stretch run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Next Saturday might be the Feb 2014 storm HM was hyping. Same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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