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February Mid/Long Range Discussion


George BM

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Starting this off..

GEFS looks like it trended in the right direction. Couple warning level hits bunched in there

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_fh126_trend.thumb.gif.adad9d5e3f44482e0b8df3314809f460.gif

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_25.thumb.png.fd111738c38c8da7c5dfc9b926e77779.png

Keep in mind some of this snowfall is from Tuesday's event, but not a whole lot.

gefs_snow_ens_washdc_15.thumb.png.5ffdd6a0ba7340463f06663075f9e274.png

Interesting that GGEM/ICON are still amped, while the GFS is suppressed. Could be the situation we've seen very often this winter where models tend to suppress the storm at medium range after having it amped at long range, and then bring it back within hr 96. 

Also, I watched Rayno's periscope regarding the next 3 wintry threats, and he seems interested in the Feb 5th timeframe as well. I think we can all agree that seeing these threat windows pop up before we were expecting the good pattern to arise during. 

 

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I'm bothered more by the fact that the trend is towards more emphasis on the northern stream wave that goes way to our north on the front and pretty much nothing behind it. It's not trending south it's just trending towards there not being a wave at all. But still time for more changes. 
It's trending to the trend its trended all year. This likely is another T to 1 event as is the next.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:

It's trending to the trend its trended all year. This likely is another T to 1 event as is the next.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Well good news is if the pattern shifts towards lower heights to our northeast and as wavelengths shorten we're likely to see some bigger precip events. 

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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It took 4 events over 10 days but the gfs gives you 4" of snow. 

gWDAHVu.jpg

We just all need to go west to deep creek. Today wasn't a great day after a few nice ones in a row. Gefs just totally lost the feb 2 threat. But we're still not even to the start of a very long lasting promising pattern it looks like so I'm willing to let this play out. Not thrilled with the turn of events the last 12 hours but not ready to give up at all. 

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Lol- euro is like the gefs with 4 separate periods of snow over 8 days with 1-4" total snow. It's certainly look active but not a very exciting type of active. Hopefully one of these opportunities breaks right. 

Winter theme....promising patterns, fair amount of threats, progressive ns, no major snow events over 3" (location dependent obviously). Not being negative but these are the facts and the theme cant be denied. If this were 3rd week December we could argue this might night be the overall theme this year but here we are days from Feb 1 and this is the hand we were dealt. It is what it is.

 

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Winter theme....promising patterns, fair amount of threats, progressive ns, no major snow events over 3" (location dependent obviously). Not being negative but these are the facts and the theme cant be denied. If this were 3rd week December we could argue this might night be the overall theme this year but here we are days from Feb 1 and this is the hand we were dealt. It is what it is.

 

That's a typical La Nina pattern. Pattern is just to progressive to produce a large event. With the lack of Atlantic blocking, every time a shortwave tries to dig there's a kicker on its heels to shunt everything out. Very frustrating. That's what makes the winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11 so special. 

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35 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z wants to bring back the cold dry theme of December.  Look cold..looks dry.  Those are the cards so we play them.  Maybe we can finish strong latter Feb/March.

We really could use some help to slow and buckle the jet. The NAO has been,  and continues to be a non factor this winter and for the last four winters. 

I believe I read that the CPC has not registered a DJF averaged NAO period for many years. 

I thought the Easterly QBO was a plus for a - NAO , but I defer that to HM and others who might know the reason(s) better than me. 

What is the cause of this , from what I am reading it could be related to changing SST patterns, and currents  in the North Altlantic or maybe the

long duraton + PDO.

This was an interesting read,  and within this thread the comments did touch on the PDO.

 

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2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

That's a typical La Nina pattern. Pattern is just to progressive to produce a large event. With the lack of Atlantic blocking, every time a shortwave tries to dig there's a kicker on its heels to shunt everything out. Very frustrating. That's what makes the winters of 1995-96 and 2010-11 so special. 

You might want to edit that last comment when you come into this forum.

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8 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a wide swath of .4 qpf thurs night/fri but the first half is rain due to warm surface. An inch or 2 after the changeover. Close to a more sig event but temps don't cooperate at first. At least the run upped qpf.

sounds like a mini jan '11, which would be acceptable.

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I feel bad now. All those Great GEFS screen shots where every member either had us in Purple, blink and blue. What is happening? And that hole is showing up again over DC. Edit: this 6z mean precip is actually wetter than 00z and 18z of last night

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

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2 hours ago, frd said:

We really could use some help to slow and buckle the jet. The NAO has been,  and continues to be a non factor this winter and for the last four winters. 

I believe I read that the CPC has not registered a DJF averaged NAO period for many years. 

I thought the Easterly QBO was a plus for a - NAO , but I defer that to HM and others who might know the reason(s) better than me. 

What is the cause of this , from what I am reading it could be related to changing SST patterns, and currents  in the North Altlantic or maybe the

long duraton + PDO.

This was an interesting read,  and within this thread the comments did touch on the PDO.

 

 

Yeah, the +NAO was a mainstay of my winter forecast again this year. The AO is averaging close to neutral for the winter thus far, and the NAO positive. The Atlantic is a factor (as is the Pacific), and exogenous variables like solar. The coupled indicator I've been using has shown excellent success (retrospectively 87% since 1950). I'd rather not discuss details but what I will say is that the end of +NAO cycle, in the means, is rapidly approaching.

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