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H2O

JAN 4th Coastal

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Low is 973 versus 968 last run and a hair east. That's noise.  At least it's not a skunk.

Yea, no red flag. Similar to 18z so no step back. Changes on the edge were noise. Delmarva qpf increased. Basically the gfs held on the rather big jump at 18z

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534 h5 contour backed a little further nw. Thats one of the gauges for how far west the shield can get. The upper levels say the gfs could have easily pushed further. That wasn't the reason for trimming the edge. 

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GFS says there should be blizzard warnings for the shore winds 37-45knts at the surface. Interesting to see if akq pulls the trigger

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2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

CMC is similar to the RGEM. Not quite as wet but gets precip west of 95.

Precip shield is certainly farther West by maybe 10 miles, but the heavier precip doesn't get farther West, which really isn't a worry atm. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

534 h5 contour backed a little further nw. Thats one of the gauges for how far west the shield can get. The upper levels say the gfs could have easily pushed further. That wasn't the reason for trimming the edge. 

It's just noise probably, which is why the GFS basically held place. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

3+" for you, 2-3" for me

Looks like 2-3 for me as well... 2" line is just west of I-95

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16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good news is look how the Gfs gets snow to our north. Where is Shunt?

 

gfs_asnow_neus_9 (1).png

I’ll take that and run, but feel bad for people...well...mostly in Leesburg. 

:lol:

Eta: Just playing. Pulling for everyone obviously.  We all need this win!

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7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good news is look how the Gfs gets snow to our north. Where is Shunt?

 

gfs_asnow_neus_9 (1).png

Yep. My biggest takeaway is that NE Pa gets a little loving so there is potential for this to come north...which would help all of us. 

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Cmc also backed up the 534 contour from its previous run. The upper level changes right now sure seem like it wants to snow in the corridor. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Cmc also backed up the 534 contour from its previous run. The upper level changes right now sure seem like it wants to snow in the corridor. 

All good news. 0z has been very generous for us so far. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cmc also backed up the 534 contour from its previous run. The upper level changes right now sure seem like it wants to snow in the corridor. 

This is about the time I start looking for Yoda or Mitch to post that weird ukie site and pray it clobbers me, you, and the other MoCo posters. Really great to see the UL changes showing up on all the guidance during the 00z suite. Hopefully...the ukie and/or euro don'y try to drop a turd in the weenie magic punch bowl. The vibe from the juice is good tonight lol. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is about the time I start looking for Yoda or Mitch to post that weird ukie site and pray it clobbers me, you, and the other MoCo posters. Really great to see the UL changes showing up on all the guidance during the 00z suite. Hopefully...the ukie and/or euro don'y try to drop a turd in the weenie magic punch bowl. The vibe from the juice is good tonight lol. 

Quit stalking me dude!  

:P

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is about the time I start looking for Yoda or Mitch to post that weird ukie site and pray it clobbers me, you, and the other MoCo posters. Really great to see the UL changes showing up on all the guidance during the 00z suite. Hopefully...the ukie and/or euro don'y try to drop a turd in the weenie magic punch bowl. The vibe from the juice is good tonight lol. 

I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other at h5. Only subtle differences with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other. At h5. Only subtle differences there and with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. 

It'd be a massive comeback. We were down like 17 with about 4 minutes to go and 1 timeout with the ball on our own 5. Now we're sitting with a chance to eek out a win. 

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I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other at h5. Only subtle differences with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. 
Remember when this was East of Bermuda a few days ago?

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I have a hunch the ukie will follow. All meso's and globals have been pretty close to each other. At h5. Only subtle differences there and with track and strength. If we get a couple inches I'll admit this is the biggest reverse bust of at short range in our area in a long time. Not so much the snow totals but how much the storm had to trend to get us in the game. 

It certainly would be a great feeling to actually kick Lucy’s football.

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