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Jan 4th Coastal


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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That is what concerns me the most.  It’s been rock solid.

It did this to us in 2015. Can't remember the exact storm but run after run after run it refused to push the shield nw of the low off obx. I heard every reason in the book. Convective feedback, model bias, gulf stream issues, seagull farts, you name it and I heard it. It did cave though. Not until 48 hours out but it finally did it and we snowed. 

Otoh- I've seen the gfs do it and make euro huggers look stupid. Which way is this one going to break? Beats me. One thing we need to change is being on the edge. We need wnwxluvr to be on the edge before I bite. Lol

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It did this to us in 2015. Can't remember the exact storm but run after run after run it refused to push the shield nw of the low off obx. I heard every reason in the book. Convective feedback, model bias, gulf stream issues, seagull farts, you name it and I heard it. It did cave though. Not until 48 hours out but it finally did it and we snowed. 

Otoh- I've seen the gfs do it and make euro huggers look stupid. Which way is this one going to break? Beats me. One thing we need to change is being on the edge. We need wnwxluvr to be on the edge before I bite. Lol

March 19 2016 did the exact thing. Euro was showing a big hit for March standards for DC (4-8", but probably closer to 3-6" with melting and high sun angle considered). GFS remained OTS and only hitting extreme SE New England. Once the Euro caved, the GFS kind of caved too, and there became a solution in the middle. Fairly sure I remember Boston got 6", which neither the GFS or Euro showed, so they basically went for a solution in between. There have been way more times where the GFS was wrong (Such as last week's Christmas storm, or the Dec 8-9 storm). Right now, given this setup, either could be right. 

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The 18z GGEM took a pretty big step back.  It looks more like the Euro now.   0.1" line running through Baltimore, about 0.05" through DC.

njsWadB.gif

I suspect the goalposts have been set now, with the 12z GGEM on the left and the GFS on the right.  It's possible that the mesos might spot something the globals are missing, but I won't have any confidence in that until tomorrow night at the earliest.

 

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Riding the edge of big storms is brutal. I can't think of a time outside of 48 hours where I felt good being on the edge. I do believe the gfs has a se bias with precip with coastals so that's in my mind. Conversely, I don't trust the accuracy of the rest enough to discount anything.

This storm has one very bad/difficult thing going for it....it's not born yet and when it does its going to become really big really fast. If this was a more normal long track storm i would trust the euro the most. But not when a storm doesn't even exist yet.

Models are nothing but giant complicated calculators. A hell of a lot of math goes into something like this and the data is imperfect. That allows errors to extrapolate and magnify quickly. If this storm was over land and already getting underway I would feel different. It's pretty wild how much stuff is about to happen in the atmosphere in the next 72 hours. 

Models are really good but this specific instance is unusually complicated. We're still a good 24 hours at least from understanding what is possible here out on the edge. The delmarva is getting snow. That's probably a lock. How much is another big bag of who knows. Haha

Bob - your infinite pragmatism is incalculable (bit of an intentional pun there, but completely agree with your observations.  Having lived here for much of the last 32 years we've been in this boat so many times.  None the less, even the slightest hope keeps us charged up for the "what if" potential. 

I feel for the forecasters who have a lot of people relying on their call.  And with something like this that is going to bomb so quickly with such a sharp cutoff, the potential for miss-allocation of resources  high or low is enormous.  e.g., do they dispatch more plow crews or not? 

I'm hoping for a 2000 redo, or perhaps the surprise of Nov 87 for those that remember that one.  It came out of nowhere and shellacked us good.

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7 minutes ago, cae said:

The 18z GGEM took a pretty big step back.  It looks more like the Euro now.   0.1" line running through Baltimore, about 0.05" through DC.

njsWadB.gif

I suspect the goalposts have been set now, with the 12z GGEM on the left and the GFS on the right.  It's possible that the mesos might spot something the globals are missing, but I won't have any confidence in that until tomorrow night at the earliest.

 

Disappointing.  But not unexpected.  Big shifts either east or west mean it doesnt have a handle on it yet..but the GFS has not had big shifts past 5 runs or more.  

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Just now, smokeybandit said:

THe nice thing about storms like this is I can wake up in the morning and know how the 0z model runs went just based on the number of new posts since the night before.

Probably not with this one. If the euro pulls the plug there will be a long string of disaster and "why do I do this to myself?" posts. 

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Disappointing.  But not unexpected.  Big shifts either east or west mean it doesnt have a handle on it yet..but the GFS has not had big shifts past 5 runs or more.  

Man brother you are predictable lol

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

It's pretty close in time for steps back.  Fine, I was looking for a life raft.  I'll just stay on the ship and go down with it.  

I mean be you...i'm just saying that you're predictable.  We all are to some degree. I like when a model run comes out and everyone is loving it for trends you just know Bob will come in with...actually this was a step backwards I hate it post. Lol...love you Bob 

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It's pretty close in time for steps back.  Fine, I was looking for a life raft.  I'll just stay on the ship and go down with it.  

The prior run was a serious outlier in general so it was a step towards everything else. We're firmly on the edge until further notice. Seeing it drop the heavy hit in SNE is actually comforting honeslty. The slp track north of us doesn't concern us either way. This is one of those weird storms where we can do well while up north gets hosed even though the storm hits ME or NS.  If it goes down like that we need to cherish this event for eternity. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The prior run was a serious outlier in general so it was a step towards everything else. We're firmly on the edge until further notice. See it drop the heavy hit in SNE is actually comforting honeslty. The slp track north of us doesn't concern us either way. This is one of those weird storms where we can do well while up north gets hosed evendors though the storm hits ME or NS.  If it goes down like that we need to cherish this event for eternity. 

We already have one of those on the "cherish for eternity" list. Somehow I dont think this one is going to compare :)

20100204-20100207-4.381.jpg

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

We already have one of those on the "cherish for eternity" list. Somehow I dont think this one is going to compare :)

20100204-20100207-4.381.jpg

Those were different though. This one tracks into Canada. One that you expect to clobber the NE and hose us. Still time for that to happen though. Maybe shortly after 1am. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Those were different though. This one tracks into Canada. One that you expect to clobber the NE and hose us. Still time for that to happen though. Maybe shortly after 1am. 

Oh no doubt. Completely different setup. But that was kind of my point. That setup with the displaced PV was the perfect set up to screw over NY and NE. This one not so much. I know where I would put my money if I had to bet who gets snow, if anyone does with this system.

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