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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think the slower solutions would end up being more west, would allow more time for the pv lobe to phase in. But just looking at the mean at h5, it doesnt seem like an improvement...so I get his take. 

I also like an increase in the western members but the overall mean and most aspects of the GEFS are the worst run out of the past 4 that I've been toggling through.

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm.

It may end up right ... but the overwhelming characteristic during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

I freaking love this post Tip. I posted on another forum that if I had woken up from a coma and just looked @ the 12z EURO @ 72 hours I would think there was a blizzard on the way. The trough just seemingly doesn't want to buckle near the FL panhandle. Instead it takes until off the SE coast to do. I'm 31. I went to college as a meteorology major but dropped out to pursue other things. It is just a hobby for me now, and since the day I started looking at wx models around 2000 I have learned that disappointment is just part of it. I live in Philadelphia so my hopes are not really high for anything really at this juncture barring a miracle. The truly worst part of all of this for me is just how damn close we are meteorologicly (is that a word?) to a monster. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The Graupler said:

Hopefully the small east tick east is the start of a trend. 

 

I have some Treehouse Sap, Knee Deep Breaking Bud, Widowmaker Gowanus Canal Screwjob.  Way too IPAcentric.  With temps this cold Russian Imperals and Barleywines should be the go to. 

Wow, No holds barred, Huh?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If this doesn’t come closer there still could be big snow... but there def is going to be some wonky screw zones... you can see some weird qpf output on The models already 

I personally think E.MA up through coastal Maine is under the gun regardless. Big circulation and most models have the best moisture profiles up through 700mb right there in E.MA.  Good coastal U-wind anomalies as posted by Ginxy.  I think you guys would get at least Advisory snows even on the further east solutions.  My feeling is if the eastern members come to fruition, Eastern New England will see bands of precip almost like feeder bands in a tropical storm, lol.  Concentrated decent snows within the bands that could pile up quite a bit of fluff.  However, the pressure gradient and high winds might work against higher ratio snow.

Add in the cold ENE flow on the front side and you've got some ocean enhanced snow in EMA in narrow bands or under-the radar type stuff.  Even with easterly tracks, you've got a good cold air flow over the ocean with strong flow likely creating some speed convergence/friction as the flow comes ashore and inland. That could seeder-feeder any mid-level bands that park there, too.  There's a lot to like on the eastern facing coastal plain.

Since the ratio discussion came up this morning, I've looked a bit more closely at it and I think a lot of the deeper interior will be too cold for fluffy dendrites.  In Feb 2015 fashion, the best thermal profiles for dendrites looks pretty solid from ORH on eastward...given it's the GFS soundings but it's showing a fairly thick layer between -12C and -18C at places like BOS between H85 and H6.  West of ORH it looks like the lift would be above the best snow growth zone as that -12C to -18C layer lowers towards the surface.  Mid-level lift would be above that layer...good for some Arctic Sand though.  The ol' single digit 10:1 ratio stuff.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I personally think E.MA up through coastal Maine is under the gun regardless. Big circulation and most models have the best moisture profiles up through 700mb right there in E.MA.  I think you guys would get at least Advisory snows even on the further east solutions.  My feeling is if the eastern members come to fruition, Eastern New England will see bands of precip almost like feeder bands in a tropical storm, lol.  Concentrated decent snows within the bands that could pile up quite a bit of fluff.  However, the pressure gradient and high winds might work against higher ratio snow.

Add in the cold ENE flow on the front side and you've got some ocean enhanced snow in EMA in narrow bands or under-the radar type stuff.  Even with easterly tracks, you've got a good cold air flow over the ocean with strong flow likely creating some speed convergence/friction as the flow comes ashore and inland. That could seeder-feeder any mid-level bands that park there, too.  There's a lot to like on the eastern facing coastal plain.

Since the ratio discussion came up this morning, I've looked a bit more closely at it and I think a lot of the deeper interior will be too cold for fluffy dendrites.  In Feb 2015 fashion, the best thermal profiles for dendrites looks pretty solid from ORH on eastward...given it's the GFS soundings but it's showing a fairly thick layer between -12C and -18C at places like BOS between H85 and H6.  West of ORH it looks like the lift would be above the best snow growth zone as that -12C to -18C layer lowers towards the surface.  Mid-level lift would be above that layer...good for some Arctic Sand though.  The ol' single digit 10:1 ratio stuff.

Yeah, gut says we see a little more than that. But that's definitely the correct idea.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Yeah, gut says we see a little more than that. But that's definitely the correct idea.

Yeah that was sort of worst-case scenario.  There's a lot going for E.NE that raises the floor compared to points west.  Thinking like fantasy football, haha, eastern Mass up through coastal Maine would be the best bet to get you the most points.  The ceiling may be high for a whole lot of places, but the floor is highest there.

Could also bring up the upslope in the northern half of ORH county with NE winds and a colder thermal profile might put the DGZ right in line with low level lift from topography.  Especially if the DGZ would hit part of both the low level upslope and the mid-level UVVS, that's a good spot to look for ratios.  Increased QPF and increased ratios from that added terrain-based lift, is when those orographic nuances really come into play when talking measured snow.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't tell the modelers down at NCEP :)

 

yeah ...no it's really (I suspect) less about the storm its self, and more about these days leading... People want the model runs to be increasingly more dystopian in complexion upon every next run, or it's like a clammy sweaty trembling bed ridden intervention that's hiding under the covers from the monkey's crawling up the walls.

Hooray. Right back to psychoanalyzing the entire board, maybe in 2018 you can take a look at why you feel the incessant need to do so. I kind of feel dumb now for being genuinely concerned about your wellbeing when you insist on looking down with distain on the majority of us.

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