Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 03z SREFs are pretty "juiced" NE DIPA style. A lot of those members seem to suggest that the northern stream impinges the height field out west. Even the ARW members that usually give Pfreak his fantasy feet. A flag, but not sure it's one I can take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 I like to see this graphic as well. Just for a select few cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 once you have a true center to track you can really lock in, we go through this during every tropical system, trying to pinpoint tracks without a center and the models windshield wiper until they can initialize the center correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: New York crew I'm sure will be riding that like Secretariat. We toss for now. Due still expect more ticks west today though. Hell yeah I am lol. But the RGEM and more so hi-res RGEM are pretty damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Since the euro is also a meso of sorts it should be the go to and that’s why it almost always is. I think you’ll be able to seal the 12z output today and mail it in. The euro is hydrostatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Johnno said: Wasn’t there a storm in January 2011, maybe 11-12th timeframe, where the nam led the way up to the event and ended up the winner? Blind squirrel type moment I think that one was pretty well done on the globals. Maybe the 27th storm? I recall the globals struggling with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is top analog for a storm coming out of bahamas and railing us @such a low pressure? Hurricane Carol (1954)!? Was wondering the same. Part of why I was rubbing my eyes at first. It's not often we get a miller A originating in Bahamas that seems to occlude by NC/VA yet continues to deepen and jackpots SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Glad we finallly lost that TC look on last night’s euro. Confidence went up dramatically on a signficant snowfall for I95 region since 0z last night. EPS looked more robust as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Question for a Mod: With this approaching 100 pages, are you going to start a new thread to cover the remaining model runs before go-time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 How sick does this anomaly look! Gonna go boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The euro is hydrostatic No. https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-the-ECMWF-GFS-and-other-weather-forecasting-models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Was wondering the same. Part of why I was rubbing my eyes at first. It's not often we get a miller A originating in Bahamas that seems to occlude by NC/VA yet continues to deepen and jackpots SNE.Actually a good point. It’s been widely talked about in here about how strange and dynamic this storm is. That’s why I think it’s premature to toss any guidance at this point. I think the typical model biases may not apply in this situation. I could be wrong but certainly think it’s something to think about. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I posted evidence of the surface low near Bimini last night... now off Miami Fwiw, 0z NAM had the best handle of SLP at current time 12z Wed... RGEM seemed to have more trouble with all the convection, GFS struggled too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: No. https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-the-ECMWF-GFS-and-other-weather-forecasting-models https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction/atmospheric-dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Also looking at overnight guidance, assuming no drastic shifts west today, I'd be shocked if blizzard warning is not expanded into Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Obs.out of Florida are rare Lake city 30f-snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I thInk NAM is giving the signal of mets and some of the senior top notch posters have been hammering about-heavy bands pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 special one incoming for many. Save a horse and ride what Scoots been saying for days.....big snows back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction/atmospheric-dynamics Now I’m confused. Does anyone have anything later, up to date, or definitive? I had the discussion with wxniss about 7-8 years ago and thought it was settled but I can’t remember the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Environment Canada not pulling any punches here. Despite a track to my west they are thinking a 4-6 hour hellacious dump to drop 6-10" before a flip to rain. Also forecasting winds gusting potentially to 140kmh (85mph). Battering waves on top of high tide and big storm surge. One of the EC mets in our local forum said this could be a "devastating" (his words) wind storm for us. I have to say I'm getting a bit edgy about this storm. Excited but nervous. Good luck everyone and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Obs.out of Florida are rare Lake city 30f-snow some big icing problems too, really cold with low dews around Savannah....nightmare incoming there with glaze then at least a few inches of snow on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Now I’m confused. Does anyone have anything later, up to date, or definitive? I had the discussion with wxniss about 7-8 years ago and thought it was settled but I can’t remember the details. I thought I remember somebody mentioning during hurricane season that the Euro might get updated to be non-hydrostatic, but not sure if it has been implemented yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Now I’m confused. Does anyone have anything later, up to date, or definitive? I had the discussion with wxniss about 7-8 years ago and thought it was settled but I can’t remember the details. Yeah I would love someone more knowledgeable than me to help clarify, I'm not sure I've ever found a good answer either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 It’s a Hydromeso model lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This graphic is awesome. http://www.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This graphic is awesome. http://www.weather.gov/ #manstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: Yeah, only the NAM was over 25 years away from making its first model run. If I remember, there were only 2 models available at the time of the 78 Blizzard. there was the AVN and ... I think either the NGM was new or about to be so... The AVN actually did remarkably well in that one according to Mets working at NWS and television at that time... This storm will not carry the same impact/significance because it is moving to fast ... But she's a witch, no doubt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: #manstorm espevially when all those pinks get moved west in 3 hours. j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Models are clueless with this. Look how the HRRR has it. Dual lows all fighting. I see why it's doing this, but the outcome on who wins is rather important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 kuchie 3k nam is drop your pants and run down your street doing cartwheels, for west folks....too bad it aint happening. porn is still porn though, even if it never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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