jlauderdal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 lol, It was tossed up here.In 18 hours will know which camp had the better solution and you guys can lock on to a track then start wobble watching like we do in hurricane season..enjoy your stormSent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: MPM after this run. 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Particularly MPM. Ain't happening, James. 2-4" Congrats on your foot+ though. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any change in the total qpf for eastern slopes of the whites and Western Maine? I want more than 7" dammit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Three storms during the 1980s took similar paths, but all tracked farther east than initial model depictions. Two cape cod blizzards in January and February 1987, and January 1989 which spared large swaths of the eastern seaboard. Snowgoose will probably remember all 3 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The east jog really kills the hopes of western areas. What's causing that? It then moves much more north afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: RPM? Went from about 25" imby to 3" from 21z to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Too be honest I don't think this type of solution can be completely ruled out. Given how intense this system is modeled to become and all the interactions there could be some merit to this. You have a cross-isobaric flow here on the NAM and there were some that mentioned cross-isobaric factor on social media (talking with someone on fb about this now). If that indeed happened the NAM probably isn't as far off as many believe. As crazy as the NAM can be sometimes its the best model in this type of setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: In 18 hours will know which camp had the better solution and you guys can lock on to a track then start wobble watching like we do in hurricane season..enjoy your storm Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Its just not good at our lat with phasing two streams, GFS has performed poorly in the Northeast, Typically last to latch on to the solution at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: The east jog really kills the hopes of western areas. What's causing that? There isnt anything i see in the upper levels doing this, aka a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Went from about 25" imby to 3" from 21z to 00z. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Went from about 25" imby to 3" from 21z to 00z. Can you post the map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I would guess the storm starts trending weaker now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeatherNurse said: Any change in the total qpf for eastern slopes of the whites and Western Maine? I want more than 7" dammit! They will do better then that up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Too be honest I don't think this type of solution can be completely ruled out. Given how intense this system is modeled to become and all the interactions there could be some merit to this. You have a cross-isobaric flow here on the NAM and there were some that mentioned cross-isobaric factor on social media (talking with someone on fb about this now). If that indeed happened the NAM probably isn't as far off as many believe. As crazy as the NAM can be sometimes its the best model in this type of setup I have never seen anything like this...at the risk of hyperbole, I was really trying to articulate that in my blog....I mean, 94mb pressure gradient? Yikes....like, and then James woke up and mom grabbed a bed pan and washed his sheets. I would have been ashamed to suggest that as possible. This could do some strange, Dec 23, 1997 like things that are going to just violate a lot of forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm seeing shades of those Baltimore blizzards a few years back that just refused to gain latitude. This one just refused to one to hug. Maine is going to be a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I would guess the storm starts trending weaker now. I would hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Its just not good at our lat with phasing two streams, GFS has performed poorly in the Northeast.We see the gfs driving hurricanes through ridges and we know thats impossible so its solutions are discounted regularly...as long as the 3k nam has a big hit it will have friends the in this thread, lolSent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: They will do better then that up there. Sure hope so! GYX precip map has us in the 7" range, but any wiggle west will help us!! I don't know how to access all the fancy products you guys have so I was hoping someone could have a look! Typically anything west of Crawford Notch gets shafted with these coast huggers but Wildcat/Sunday River/Sugarloaf do well. 7" seems low for my intuition, just wondering what the actual science is hinting towards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is looking like one hell of a storm. The Boston area just to the southwest to the immediate Northshore looks to get burried big time in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There isnt anything i see in the upper levels doing this, aka a kicker. Which leads me to discount it some. A 130 miles east or so in 3 hours seems...off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Any thundersnow possibilities with this in eastern NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Which leads me to discount it some. That would give Kevin a rise....put him back into the highest band perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: This is looking like one hell of a storm. Boston area to just southwest to immediate north shore looks to get burried in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now. Yes. There is going to be an area in central NE that won't be modeled, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: This is looking like one hell of a storm. Boston area to just southwest to immediate north shore looks to get burried in snow by the looks of what is starting to take shape now. This will be big in eastern New England. You could take it to the bank days ago. Going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: Any thundersnow possibilities with this in eastern NE? I would sure as hell think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: We see the gfs driving hurricanes through ridges and we know thats impossible so its solutions are discounted regularly...as long as the 3k nam has a big hit it will have friends the in this thread, lol Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk lol, The snowiest models get hugged, And the rest are tossed, In all seriousness, The RGEM/Euro have been a good combo up here with some weight on the GFS with its known bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 When is the RGEM available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I think weenies out west from to look at the H6 lift. That seems to be near the DGZ as this will have some warmer air wrapping in. To me, that says we may have a good weenie band well west of the QPF queen band. Like pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Will businesses usually close with 20 inches OTG in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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