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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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So best answer please, how long will the nws and tv mets hug the euro until the cannot any longer? Do they take the chance of being weenies or do they wait to literal last minute. Don’t envy them at all. Nope. 

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

yea def more phasing and interaction this run but qpf just isn't budging.

That will change. Just notice how much it has changed in GA/SC as we've gotten under 36 hours on the GFS. You'll see the same this afternoon and tonight as the GFS starts picking up on the mesoscale features. It still won't be anything like the NAM or RGEM because it is having convective feedback issues IMO.

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1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

That will change. Just notice how much it has changed in GA/SC as we've gotten under 36 hours on the GFS. You'll see the same this afternoon and tonight as the GFS starts picking up on the mesoscale features. It still won't be anything like the NAM or RGEM because it is having convective feedback issues IMO.

true. nam and gfs have both seen shifting the slp closer to the fl coast every run, if we can keep that trend going until zero hour we will all be in business. luckily the models have rarely had the detail locked in 36hrs out the past few winters so there is hope.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

true. nam and gfs have both seen shifting the slp closer to the fl coast every run, if we can keep that trend going until zero hour we will all be in business. luckily the models have rarely had the detail locked in 36hrs out the past few winters so there is hope.

Look at the GFS change for GA and SC, they're just 24 hours out and look at the difference...

gfs_asnow_seus_12.png

gfs_asnow_seus_10.png

 

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

GFS is such a letdown...H5 low shifted west again and nothing.  Hard to ignore that...

The globals have been consistent as they could be on the lack of qpf. It really is a battle between the hi -res and the globals in regards to the precip shield and amounts. Sure I want to go all weenie and believe the 3k and the rgem as they both give me 8+ inches of snow but I won't ignore the globals consistency either.

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8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yea def more phasing and interaction this run but qpf just isn't budging.

There was a westward shift, but only ~30 miles. We need larger westward adjustments at this range.

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3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

The globals have been consistent as they could be on the lack of qpf. It really is a battle between the hi -res and the globals in regards to the precip shield and amounts. Sure I want to go all weenie and believe the 3k and the rgem as they both give me 8+ inches of snow but I won't ignore the globals consistency either.

No they haven't. Just look at the GFS changes I posted above for GA, HUGE increase and big differences for them. CMC just came in much snowier for a lot of us. High res models > Globals inside 48 hours.

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10 minutes ago, Regan said:

So best answer please, how long will the nws and tv mets hug the euro until the cannot any longer? Do they take the chance of being weenies or do they wait to literal last minute. Don’t envy them at all. Nope. 

Completely agree. Intrigued to see Huffman's first map later. He'll factor in everything in his own way.

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We also saw how the NAM developed that secondary low closer to the coast and it becomes the primary; whereas the other models keep the first low the primary. We may not have a good idea until go time.

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Everyone thought the meso models were way off base but here we are inside 48 hours and the globals are making jumps towards them.. Expect this continue. As I've said before, I always go with a blend of the meso models inside 48 hours, they are just far superior and pick up features that globals don't at extended leads or simply don't resolve properly. Look at new CMC vs old.

gem_asnow_seus_9.png

gem_asnow_seus_11.png

 

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We also saw how the NAM developed that secondary low closer to the coast and it becomes the primary; whereas the other models keep the first low the primary. We may not have a good idea until go time.

It’s because of this I think (IMO) the tv mets and nws should risk being weenies. This last minute mess, even an inch or two, shuts down Wake. Especially with these temps. I’d rather have a plethora of hotdogs in my freezer than to have 2 hungry children and no food. 

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13 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

Interesting note by a met in Connecticut 

Granted being in Connecticut, everything he's looking at is different for that area. But for here, saying anything needs to be blended is stupid. Mesos are solid and all the globals are playing catch up. No blending needed.

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For the triangle folks, we need to the SLP to get to roughly the HAT point. That's kind of the benchmark if you want a major/historic storm. As of now, I am seeing this as a Jan2000 storm shifted east about 75 miles. That would put Greenville/Elizabeth City/Tidewater area as the major winners(12+) at this point in time w/ Raleigh in the 1-3 range. But keep in mind the last minute shifts we often see in the models, degree of strength/convection firing offshore on this one (Could influence downstream ridging via latent heat release) and the gulf stream. These mesoscale features can easily throw off a SLP 50 or 100 miles. This is what causes surprise snowstorms. Also, one of the most important things is often the 500 and 300mb patterns, which all look classic to me for the Triangle. Surface features are often the last feature to correct on the mods. Best of luck to everyone on this one, as it's going to crush some board members hearts.

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3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

For the triangle folks, we need to the SLP to get to roughly the HAT point. That's kind of the benchmark if you want a major/historic storm. As of now, I am seeing this as a Jan2000 storm shifted east about 75 miles. That would put Greenville/Elizabeth City/Tidewater area as the major winners(12+) at this point in time w/ Raleigh in the 1-3 range. But keep in mind the last minute shifts we often see in the models, degree of strength/convection fire offshore on this one (Could influence downstream latent heat/ridging) and the gulf stream. These mesoscale features can easily through off a SLP 50 or 100 miles. This is what causes surprise snowstorms. Also, one of the most important things if often the 500 and 300mb patterns, which all look classic to me for the Triangle. Surface features are often the last feature to correct on the mods. Best of luck to everyone on this one, as it's going to crush some board members hearts.

The Charlotte area is pretty much out of the game, UNLESS we can get a decent shift and/or some factors to play, so we can get some good banding to overcome the dry air. Ugh...the DRY AIR. SMDH

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3 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

The Charlotte area is pretty much out of the game, UNLESS we can get a decent shift and/or some factors to play, so we can get some good banding to overcome the dry air. Ugh...the DRY AIR. SMDH

It's still possible to see some light stuff out that way.

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