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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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Regarding the lack of copious moisture; we all know how dry this cold air mass is, and it has been moving out over the ocean for days now as well. So there is not as much available moisture on the ocean surface for the slp to work with. This is my hypothesis, Mets or others please correct me if I am wrong about it.

Looking at other sources of moisture, perhaps some large scale transport from the tropics could help if available. Looking at current water vapor to see if it could be identified. Anybody got a good link for the hemispheric water vapor loop? Here is the continental US, you can see our upper level energy players on the field http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

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Wow, it’s funny that here in Florence, SC we’re always right on the eastern edge of any typical winter weather systems, now we’ve got a system off the coast and we’re stuck right on the western edge!

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3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

The NAM on the SC/NC coast was like .7" of freezing rain....

Throw in some of this wind and it could be a big power mess up and down the coast

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_41.png

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A blend of the 12 and 3 K Nams gives a average of 6-10" for the I95 to Hwy 17 corridor...hopefully the RGEM also has its higher totals....still would like the see the globals get in line.

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Here are the last 5 runs of the 3k Nam, starting at 12z yesterday.  Obviously, 18z stands out (with 0z close behind) as the best run for the Piedmont areas.  The last two runs look similar, with some slight adjustment left and slightly higher totals on the latest run.

Nam.jpg.58c1b1a91366ba24be4da004018a57ad.jpg

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5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Yay! Said no one ever. Hope NAM is on crack. Would rather have nothing than that. 

I don't want NO ICE-ICE baby.. All fuffy snow, best Storm setup I've seen for Wilm in ages.. 9-12 inches for ILM? WooT! Says the 3K Nam

 

 

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So, 4 1/2 years ago I moved from N.C. to Ft. Walton Beach. That next winter I started honking about an ice storm there and they all thought I was crazy.

Now I'm in Tallahassee and I'm honking about a historic winter storm and they all think I'm crazy.

Maybe if I move to Miami I can singlehandedly cure us of global warming?

RGEM/NAM show a once in a century winter event for Tallahassee -- .2-.5 of QPF -- all frozen. Unbelievable. 

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

RGEM has 6” to 95, 4” to ColdRain but 0 in far west Wake Co.  LOL

Tighter gradient then 6z.  

Looks like that secondary low never got going closer to the coast.

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It is so funny these last few years how the dividing line sets up right through Wake Co.  East, west, north, south, it doesn't matter  It's crazy.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

New RGEM snowmap

snku_acc.us_ma (3).png

Strange, because by hour 39 it looks like the primary low is about at the same location as 6z. I think this is just s difference in where the precip bands setup.

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We should do a contest on who ends up with the most snow out of this storm.. its a tough one with such drastically different solutions 

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

It is so funny these last few years how the dividing line sets up right through Wake Co.  East, west, north, south, it doesn't matter  It's crazy.

Yep for east and west based storms, Wake tends to be the battle ground. I may be watching you get a few inches while I see flurries or nothing. Pay back time....

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I know piedmont wants to see more movement west but keep in mind the more it moves the higher the winds for those of us living on the water! As it stands in Wilmington, Home Depot and Lowes are sold out of space heaters. If we get more Freezing rain to start followed by heavy snow(for us over 3-4inches) and strong winds could be a recipe for major power outages in freezing cold Thursday and Friday.  Hoping everyone sees mainly white flakes but growing concerned about ice.  

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Through hour 18 the GFS is closer to neutral with the lead wave and closer with the second wave, might be a touch more phasing this run.

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Notice how much the GFS has shifted the precip shield NW over the past few runs. Expect it to do the same in NC as we get a little closer.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_8.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_5.png

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The Nemesis for western areas will be the dry air. Light precip will not be enough to moisten up the airmass. We'll need some nice banding to set up. 

 

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