Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco 2

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's ok guys! We have the Germans on our side... When have they ever lost?

 

We hit bottom. The German is bringing this back. Happy Hour coming the rescue!

[showmethesnow]

An op run so I can't get super excited but the 500 mb made a strong move towards my thoughts with a coastal with NS involvement. Much deeper drop with the pv from 00z and we are now seeing the coastal low that's OTS now being redeveloped back to the coast off of NY.  One feature I want to point out is look at the difference between runs with the mid-latitude jet dropping into the southern. Notice the 12Z is in a much better position and has a better look for possible interaction/phasing of energy to bring it up the coast. The location of it at this point would suggest any interaction/phasing would be to our south. But at this point the timing is a little off between this jet interaction and the low off the coast.

 

 

 

 

[aldie 22]

What did the models have for today's weather 6 days ago? More importantly what did the ensembles say?

[pasnownut]

44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So what do we root for now? Big dig and some sort of jacked up phase that gives us a couple inches? 

clippers and the occasional bowlin ball towards climo.....

in the next 2-3 weeks till pattern relaxes.

edit - and I'm still not buying in to anyone that says were out.  I'll revisit that statement 0z's Christmas night....not before.

like Bob suggests..maybe not crazy solutions, but something appreciable IMO.

Happy Holidays all!  Still got lots to be happy about.

[wkd]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll laugh if we end up with a ns bowling ball event after laser focusing on the ss wave. Lol

I don't think that's so far fetched. If I recollect right, sampling in Canada is at least as bad if not worse in Canada as the pacific.  I would guess there is a lot less input from aircraft anyway.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What did the models have for today's weather 6 days ago? More importantly what did the ensembles say?

A clipper that gave most of us a white Christmas.  

[NorthArlington101]

EPS is an improvement, just looking at the snow means I'll tell you that.

Less suppressed then the OP, though the members that get us anything seem to be relying on the coastal, which is much more complicated. Fun stuff. 

[aldie 22]

Friday isn't tomorrow 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS is an improvement, just looking at the snow means I'll tell you that.

Less suppressed then the OP, though the members that get us anything seem to be relying on the coastal, which is much more complicated. Fun stuff. 

in response to this... delete if necessary but here is panasonic low locations.

workable.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS is an improvement, just looking at the snow means I'll tell you that.

Less suppressed then the OP, though the members that get us anything seem to be relying on the coastal, which is much more complicated. Fun stuff. 

18z. That's our run.  When things turned around.  We got this.  They'll be No sad faces on Christmas

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, wkd said:

I don't think that's so far fetched. If I recollect right, sampling in Canada is at least as bad if not worse in Canada as the pacific.  I would guess there is a lot less input from aircraft anyway.

The way I see it (and echoing others) is that ops will back off on the ss squash. How much and what that means isn't something I can answer or even guess honeslty. Just that the big push south is probably over today. 

The euro dropped a bowling ball into the oh valley so that's totally new. It's not something by itself that will do much other than a minor event unless it drops much further south. The angle of approach makes that really difficult but again, how the ns evolves is as up in the air as the ss. 

Then it gets really complicated....how do the streams interact if at all?...beats me. Climo and past experience says that chances of a big event are pretty low. Some sort of weird event that does drop a few inches of snow can happen a lot of ways but ns dominance like this isn't usually kind the the MA region. 

I guess I'll my bar at 2.3" somehow some way. That would put my yard at 6" for Dec. Would put this year in the top 5 for my yard. 

[Cobalt]

If the GFS is right, the event on the 1st may be the one to watch. GEFS doesn't lend too much support for it though. 

GEFS snow mean is still 3.5" of snow for this weekend. 5 members out of 20 (25%) show 6" of snow. Maybe this will can come to fruition. Even if we end up on the North side of the snow, good ratios could easily help us 

 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS is an improvement, just looking at the snow means I'll tell you that.

Less suppressed then the OP, though the members that get us anything seem to be relying on the coastal, which is much more complicated. Fun stuff. 

It's another step back from the previous run though. Looks ok but trending the wrong way. 

[Bob Chill]

Yea, eps isn't inspiring this run. 0z last night had around .4 mean precip for the fri-sat deal. Looks like close to half of that on the 12z run. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's another step back from the previous run though. Looks ok but trending the wrong way. 

Yeah, I kinda glanced too quickly. Definitely better then the OP, little worse then 0z. I'm ok with the lows of the EC though, gives us something to play with. There was a nice cluster at 0z, but I feel like the 12z run isn't that bad either IMO.

Hopefully we begin rebuilding. 

[mitchnick]

At least we have a wind advisory for tonight into tomorrow afternoon.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, I kinda glanced too quickly. Definitely better then the OP, little worse then 0z. I'm ok with the lows of the EC though, gives us something to play with. There was a nice cluster at 0z, but I feel like the 12z run isn't that bad either IMO.

Hopefully we begin rebuilding. 

We're in the range where the eps generally follows the op so I didn't expect great things. If things shift for the better on future runs the eps will hone in on the improvement. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We're in the range where the eps generally follows the op so I didn't expect great things. If things shift for the better on future runs the eps will hone in on the improvement. 

I still think the ensembles lend no additional guidance value to the operational models.  They follow it like blind sheep and wax and wane with all the sudden shifts. Just mho.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I still think the ensembles lend no additional guidance value to the operational models.  They follow it like blind sheep and wax and wane with all the sudden shifts. Just mho.

I definitely think ens add value beyond d6 but not always. This has been one of those years where the only thing that seems to add confidence is shorter lead times. It's been exceptionally volatile for whatever reason. 

Ens have done a very good job picking up pattern changes d10-15 this year but a pattern change and sensible wx are 2 different things. 

I made a post some days ago saying that we won't know how this week will go until after we get into the cold pattern which basically started today. That seems to be the case. At least for now anyways. 

[Scraff]

Is Tony Pann deep into the Eggnog? What the...

 

[Cobalt]

Cold = snow chances. Last year we didn't have access to these cold waves. We will get our share of snow in the next 3 weeks

[Cobalt]

 

[Wonderdog]

53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Friday isn't tomorrow 

Forever is tomorrow.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models should start warming up really quick. +30 departures maybe in the northeast by the second week of January. We have a little window here in the next 5-6 days. 

[ravensrule]

4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Models should start warming up really quick. +30 departures should be in the northeast by the second week of January. We have a little window here in the next 5-6 days. 

I think we will have +69 departures by the second week of January. Get your sunblock ready.

[Bob Chill]

Interestingly the eps is pushing back any warmup. Until today, the inevitable relaxation showing up was gaining steam. A bit of a reversal today at h5. It's an intesting pattern because numerical indices aren't good but the NA pressure pattern favors hp nosing down from eastern canada right through the end. 

Late week is slowly evolving to a bit of a bummer but if these temps are right and the mslp pattern is right, we should be in the game for 2 weeks and beyond. It would take excessive bad luck to blow through the entire period without adding some decent numbers to our annual snow totals. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly the eps is pushing back any warmup. Until today, the inevitable relaxation showing up was gaining steam. A bit of a reversal today at h5. It's an intesting pattern because numerical indices aren't good but the NA pressure pattern favors hp nosing down from eastern canada right through the end. 

Late week is slowly evolving to a bit of a bummer but if these temps are right and the mslp pattern is right, we should be in the game for 2 weeks and beyond. It would take excessive bad luck to blow through the entire period without adding some decent numbers to our annual snow totals. 

Pretty sure the 8 degree low for DCA would beat last year's lowest temperature by 8 degrees

[Scraff]

The earth will collide with the sun tomorrow. It will snow when we’re all dead. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Scraff said:

The earth will collide with the sun tomorrow. It will snow when we’re all dead. 

We live in the Mid Atlantic.  We're already dead when it comes to snow.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Interestingly the eps is pushing back any warmup. Until today, the inevitable relaxation showing up was gaining steam. A bit of a reversal today at h5. It's an intesting pattern because numerical indices aren't good but the NA pressure pattern favors hp nosing down from eastern canada right through the end. 

Late week is slowly evolving to a bit of a bummer but if these temps are right and the mslp pattern is right, we should be in the game for 2 weeks and beyond. It would take excessive bad luck to blow through the entire period without adding some decent numbers to our annual snow totals. 

That's how I feel about it right now. Bummed about late week but still hopeful about the pattern in general. Several threats coming. Active enough. We should luck into something.