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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yay another mountain snowstorm for the Jan1 storm! Nice storm between cold shots! The 2000 10 day stretch of awesomeness, is flailing!

00Z GFS will salvage 2-4" for most of NC at least, still though a completely different look with the evolution of the system.....

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7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

man that storm for Thursday has been completely vaporized....

The NWS forecast for my little corner of Georgia still has us at a 30% chance of snow for Thursday. Since they completely missed the "surprise storm" from a couple of weeks ago I'm reserving judgement. It's something I'm watching closely because that's when I'm supposed to go back to work.  :)

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

In Jan 96, there was lake effect off of Lake Hartwell into Easley!

Down here back in 2000 I think, something like that, had a lake Moultrie effect snow blanket Goose Creek with a dusting to an inch a few miles down the road from where I was at.  Crazy that day.

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20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yay another mountain snowstorm for the Jan1 storm! Nice storm between cold shots! The 2000 10 day stretch of awesomeness, is flailing!

Cold air source west of the Apps. That usually works out :(

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2 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

Down here back in 2000 I think, something like that, had a lake Moultrie effect snow blanket Goose Creek with a dusting to an inch a few miles down the road from where I was at.  Crazy that day.

That is absolutely insane bro! I would like to talk to you about that event soon. MERRY CHRISTMAS to you and Family MB! 

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Wow... Crazy to think it wasn’t all that long ago everyone was worried about this thing cutting and wondering how the models had the low tracking towards the high pressures. Guess the models corrected that mistake...

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19 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well UKMET is supressed! :(

Euro is our only hope!

Don’t forget the German model is still showing an amped solution at 00z. Btw even though the UK was suppressed it did look better at 5H...

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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I'm trying to understand what I'm seeing with the models and how some don't seem to be reconciling the differences they have with each other. The GFS has a 1040+ HP that comes out of Montana and progresses southeast essentially squashing the low pressure. The high pressure seems to make it as far south east as the Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa border so the low pressure in the gulf being suppressed makes sense. However, as best I can tell the European takes this high pressure across the great lakes yet for some reason the moisture from the gulf doesn't seem to come any further north. The hi-res models have this same high pressure that meanders within 100 miles of its location for several frames but then move is several hundred miles from one frame to the next. This seems odd as well. Someone help me understand this.

I guess what I'm saying is...with these differences and oddities it seems to me that something exciting could still be on the table for us. It seems to me with some of these differences there should be a wider range of possibilities than what is being shown.

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Hopefully this is the start of a North trend that continues right until the event starts. That was a pretty major shift back to the northwest on the NAM. It really looked a lot more healthy with the shortwave, wouldn't take much more for this to be a nice event for everyone. 

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3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

at 57hr the nam looks a bit better with more expansive precip down near the sc lowcountry.  ice down near chs.

The NAM has had zr in SAV for the past couple of days  :lol:   

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