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WxUSAF

December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Post of the day. Spot on. Ukie is legit. Not infallible like some of you think the Euro is but it’s really good when it’s really good.

That said, I’m out, not getting back in, and have no interest in the next 4 days. I’m just here for the lols. 

ETA: and to reap the feeble.

Ukie is a good model but no model is perfect. Not even the euro. However, from 72 hours and in, the euro is unquestionably the most accurate. It has its hiccups too but if the euro shows something similar to the gfs then banking on the ukie is foolish. 

The real fun starts when the euro splits the difference between the ukie/cmc and gfs. lol

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5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Nobody should be on board anything until King CRAS speaks. :lol:

It’s actually not that far west which may mean the gfs is right LOL 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ukie is a good model but no model is perfect. Not even the euro. However, from 72 hours and in, the euro is unquestionably the most accurate. It has its hiccups too but if the euro shows something similar to the gfs then banking on the ukie is foolish. 

The real fun starts when the euro splits the difference between the ukie/cmc and gfs. lol

It is a good model and verifies better than the GFS on average at least at 500h.  Makes me really interested in the Euro as the UKMET did shift quite a bit west and is much stronger with the upper level feature. 

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20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Us Western guys are rooting for you all...you can have our temps since we won't need them

We will get the better ratio's though.....Oh nevermind.

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After all the crazy busts (good and bad) and crazy out of nowhere shifts in guidance at short range I love how some still make declarative statements after every good or bad op run. 

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Usually the Ukie is first to show a shift in things before the Euro comes out.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

After all the crazy busts (good and bad) and crazy out of nowhere shifts in guidance at short range I love how some still make declarative statements after every good or bad op run. 

We never learn. I’m out irrespective of the model runs or trends but folks seriously tracking should know there’s still time for this to go either way.

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i go out to lunch for an hour and come back to find y'all hugging the Ukie? As if the NAM, NAVGEM and Canadian wasn't bad enough. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After all the crazy busts (good and bad) and crazy out of nowhere shifts in guidance at short range I love how some still make declarative statements after every good or bad op run. 

I have not noticed much shifting from the euro in the last 48 hours, so if this one does that would impress me.

eta: timing has been different, but low placements have looked similar to me

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm honestly surprised the UKIE qpf output wasn't higher given it's positioning and intensity.

The precip is far from over at 72 hours. 

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Just now, usedtobe said:

The precip is far from over at 72 hours. 

I was looking at 126 hours. Seemed to show a storm total around .8 to an inch of liquid.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

i go out to lunch for an hour and come back to find y'all hugging the Ukie? As if the NAM, NAVGEM and Canadian wasn't bad enough. 

Ukie hugging is FAR more acceptable than the others, if you’re the kind of person that believes in hugging one op run of one model. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Ukie hugging is FAR more acceptable than the others, if you’re the kind of person that believes in hugging one op run of one model. 

You know the weenie handlbook, rule number 1 is to hug the model that gives you thee most snow. 

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Usually the Ukie is first to show a shift in things before the Euro comes out.


That’s what I thought last night. Until Euro wouldn’t budge.


.

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I'd rather have the Ukie on my side than the German.  just saying.  Stick with the allies and not the axis powers

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Just now, jrodd321 said:


That’s what I thought last night. Until Euro wouldn’t budge.


.

The Euro will adjust.  Ukie leads, others follow.

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I'm rather skeptical of the storm moving out to sea. Models are for sure gonna put up a fight in the next 48 hours. I'll try to bring up some more posts from that Jan 6th 2017 storm, since I think that's our closest analog. Cold front came in Wednesday, storm Friday. Only difference is a clipper event that missed us that Thursday. I remember that the models showed good potential on the weekend, backed off Monday, Tuesday, slightly came back Tuesday night, looks dismal Wednesday, came back Wednesday afternoon. came back Friday, and we had the potential of 1-3" even NW of DC. It can surely happen again, especially since we're seeing how volatile the models can be

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Just now, Cobalt said:

Eyeballing Euro, it looks slightly better than 0z thru 48 hours

Slightly is not good enough 

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