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December 2017 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You would like what it shows. 1" precip mark gets 25/30 west of the cities. Shows 2+ on portions of the eastern shore. Not going to look hard but it looks as if it would be mostly snow all the way to the eastern shore of MD.

Not sure ground temps get below zero looking at WxBell but yeah, upper levels look pretty nice.

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24 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Sorry to break up the convo, but I saw on Twitter that Maue added H5 Vort Panels to the euro at http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

 

What a great partnership they have together now!

He needed it.  Good for him to share his own work with everyone else!

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

WPC and LWX are starting to put out relevant products. Not to clog it up with images anymore, I'll just give links:

http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

http://models.weatherbell.com/wpc/wpc_snow.php 

I'd buy the WPC 50% right now. 

wait a minute.....is that a current map on the WxBell link for % chances of snow thru Saturday 12Z (72hrs.) because it shows lots of snow over us???

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

wait a minute.....is that a current map on the WxBell link for % chances of snow thru Saturday 12Z (72hrs.) because it shows lots of snow over us???

Unless I am misreading it, that is current. LWX is honestly kinda bullish too. Gives a 30% chance of 2" for DCA through Sat. 

What I find interesting is that WPC and LWX aren't buying the heavy strip of snow by the coast as much. Wonder what they are seeing.

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All of the guidance is latched onto the "second" frontal wave now.  What was a chance at snow early Friday morning is now a chance Friday evening into Saturday morning.  Things are actually trending the way we need (stronger more amplified second wave, but that doesn't mean it will continue and get where we need.  But its close enough now that I am still interested for a few more runs...

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Then you need it to speed up about 12-18 hours.  Otherwise....fuggetaboutit.

Mostly a sarcastic post, that ship has sailed IMO, only way is to slow it down and sharpen the base for the 2nd southern stream wave like the B models have.  

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Just now, LP08 said:

Mostly a sarcastic post, that ship has sailed IMO, only way is to slow it down and sharpen the base for the 2nd southern stream wave like the B models have.  

Only thing that keeps giving me hope is the fact that it's the 1st storm of the year. Biases for the models are not set in stone yet. Some years they trend NW a couple days before the storm, some days SE. Probably gonna be close but no cigar

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