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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

How does La Nada work out for us after a multi year nina?

I’m not sure, the sample size is so small.  It’s not been good in the northeast though at all.  96-97 (neutral after one year of La Niña), 01-02 and 12-13 are the only real good cases and all were pretty lousy.   Some of the more reliable longer term forecast guys out there have theorized solar activity and MJO have a huge influence in those winters because you don’t have an ENSO influence to “buckle the jet.”  01-02 had awful solar an MJO for the US.  I think the winter was mostly spent in phases 4-5.  

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m not sure, the sample size is so small.  It’s not been good in the northeast though at all.  96-97 (neutral after one year of La Niña), 01-02 and 12-13 are the only real good cases and all were pretty lousy.   Some of the more reliable longer term forecast guys out there have theorized solar activity and MJO have a huge influence in those winters because you don’t have an ENSO influence to “buckle the jet.”  01-02 had awful solar an MJO for the US.  I think the winter was mostly spent in phases 4-5.  

What is funny is those were all pretty horrible except for one decent event during each season. Otherwise, they were warm years. 

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

What is funny is those were all pretty horrible except for one decent event during each season. Otherwise, they were warm years. 

The tendency if solar activity is elevated with no ENSO mechanism is usually for zonal flow.  For whatever reason it can have a lesser or different effect when it’s elevated when there is pronounced ENSO.  It’s sort of like how some MJO phases during El Niño are bad while they are fairly favorable during neutral or La Niña years.  I think 1 and 8 can be poor in December El Niño’s but are otherwise usually good phases go us in the east 

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Euro with a I-95 special in NC 2-4”.  Gets 2” almost to ColdRain.  Primarily a NS low dropping down, but there is some southern energy that is trying to join in.  

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Euro with a I-95 special in NC 2-4”.  Gets 2” almost to ColdRain.  Primarily a NS low dropping down, but there is some southern energy that is trying to join in.  

The Euro has shown a threat for this time period for several runs now (~4). Hoping it has legs.

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

How'd that last coastal pan out for RAH?

We got our biggest snowfall in 3 years.:.officially it was 0.9”.  :bag:

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

We got our biggest snowfall in 3 years.:.officially it was 0.9”.  :bag:

You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that.   

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Just now, FallsLake said:

You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that.   

No complaints...solid event for us.   Would happily take a dusting next week.  

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23 minutes ago, packbacker said:

No complaints...solid event for us.   Would happily take a dusting next week.  

Wow Pack. You been taking snow deprivation therapy!? Well come to think of it, less than an inch is slowly becoming a solid event for central NC.

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2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Wow Pack. You been taking snow deprivation therapy!? Well come to think of it, less than an inch is slowly becoming a solid event for central NC.

Hah...we have been on a snow diet of late so any little cracker crumb of snow is going to be legit.  Last week was nice...I had probably 1.5" and it was all snow, really cold, I actually swept it off my driveway.  Give me one more of those and it will be a great winter.

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52 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

The Euro has shown a threat for this time period for several runs now (~4). Hoping it has legs.

Yep and Its not exactly where we need it to be right now but seeing some things that could really work out for several people on this board. Could get real interesting by late this weekend into next week if tracking a threat is your cup of tea. 

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12z EPS definitely trended better with the h5 low trying to dig further southwest.   Had maybe a dozen members with some snow for eastern NC, though most are light.  The control run was a little more beefy then the Op.

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At least RAH mentioned the possibility:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this
period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first
half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top
out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being
Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area
from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the
middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming
out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning.

Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the
forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of the
upper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday
afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east
of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For
now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as
seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if
guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs.


 

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

At least RAH mentioned the possibility:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this
period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first
half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top
out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being
Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area
from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the
middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming
out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning.

Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the
forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of the
upper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday
afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east
of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For
now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as
seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if
guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs.


 

Past few runs the EPS has gotten the surface low a little further SE towards the carolina's...

XlB3GQx.gif

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5 hours ago, packfan98 said:

Matthew East is located in Charlotte but forecasts for the Charlotte region and the Triad.  His videos will show the pattern and the models for the entire Southeast.  He also posts here sometimes as MSUWX.

Thanks

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Gosh another good shot of cold air coming for three or four days and we still can't get a nice storm out of the Gulf, normally its the cold we have trouble with and now its the moisture when its cold, talk about threading a needle isn't the word for it.  

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4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Can we get this to dig down to TX then swing throughgfs_z500_vort_us_19.png

If we were in a Niño and the NS wasn't screwing everything up then yeah, probably 

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3 hours ago, tramadoc said:

They closed our Pizza Inn about five years ago. The closest one to me is in Little Washington...

My wife and sister in law both worked at that Pizza Inn back around 1988 I think.  That thing has been there as long as the other two staples in Little Washington, Piggly Wiggly and King Chicken!  

Euro gonna steal sleep from the board tonight.  Here we go!

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