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Winter 2017-18 banter thread

WeatherFeen2000

By WeatherFeen2000,
in New York City Metro

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Why do people care so much whether it's the last week of December or the first week of January? It doesn't really matter.  I personally think we'll be cold and dry for awhile but the snowy pattern will begin around New Years.  That's how it usually works.

 

Based on the above, looks like PB is also initially worried about suppression.  

2 reasons-Christmas is in the equation.  Also- the weekies warm us up after 1/10 so if it's the first week of Jan we waste a week of the pattern.   No surprised its delayed, pattern changes are often rushed.

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted

I wish everyone would step back and relax in the instance that the atmosphere - something which we have zero control over - doesn’t acquiesce to our belief. It’s amazing to watch the weather, and enjoy a snowstorm or a warm, sunny day.

Tracking snowstorms and beautiful weather is a nice escape for me that I now get to share with my children.

We don’t need to take every model run so personally.


.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Man I keep saying this over and over. It’s like model runs are what really will happen.

97 on the island sucked. An inch of paste

Funny thing is it almost seems like some people get more excitement from model runs than the actual event.

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Funny thing is it almost seems like some people get more excitement from model runs than the actual event.

 

Yeah I’ll never ever get that. I only check the models occasionally. I get most of my info from here then formulate an opinion. The best posters are the ones who inject real meteorology and experience. Anyone can rattle off a play by play.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah I’ll never ever get that. I only check the models occasionally. I get most of my info from here then formulate an opinion. The best posters are the ones who inject real meteorology and experience. Anyone can rattle off a play by play.

It's best to avoid the craze and just check once a day- usually late at night when it's more relaxed.  That way you can laugh at the emotional swings from run to run without falling victim to it yourself and maybe inject a snarky comment or two while everyone's sleeping haha.

 

Funniest thing I find is how sometimes when people do model play by play, one person says one thing and another person says the complete opposite thing in the next post and an "innocent bystander" then posts- So which is it?

 

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

6" plus December snowstorms in NYC...

35 times NYC saw a snowstorm 6" or greater in Dec...December 26 had five major storms...15 storms from the 21st to 26th...

amount...dates......

26.4" 12/26-27/1947

20.0" 12/26-27/2010

18.0" 12/26/1872

16.0" 12/19-20/1948

15.2" 12/11-12/1960

14.0" 12/5-7/2003

13.7" 12/21-22/1959

12.7" 12/15/1916

12.0" 12/30/2000

11.4" 12/24/1912

11.2" 12/26/1933

10.9" 12/19-20/2009

9.1" 12/13-14/1917

8.3" 12/19-20/1945

8.1" 12/5/1886

8.0" 12/3-4/1957

8.0" 12/25-26/1909

7.9" 12/5/1926

7.7" 12/19-20/1995

7.5" 12/23-24/1883

7.2" 12/27-28/1990

7.1" 12/24-25/1966

7.0" 12/26/1890

7.0" 12/15-16/1896

7.0" 12/12-13/1904

7.0" 12/3-4/1911

6.8" 12/25-27/1969

6.6" 12/23-24/1963

6.5" 12/25/1902

6.2" 12/12-14/1902

6.2" 12/23-24/1961

6.0" 12/27-28/1873

6.0" 12/22-23/1896

6.0" 12/17-18/1904

6.0" 12/5/2002

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North and West

North and West

Posted
Posted
6" plus December snowstorms in NYC...
35 times NYC saw a snowstorm 6" or greater in Dec...December 26 had five major storms...15 storms from the 21st to 26th...
amount...dates......
26.4" 12/26-27/1947
20.0" 12/26-27/2010
18.0" 12/26/1872
16.0" 12/19-20/1948
15.2" 12/11-12/1960
14.0" 12/5-7/2003
13.7" 12/21-22/1959
12.7" 12/15/1916
12.0" 12/30/2000
11.4" 12/24/1912
11.2" 12/26/1933
10.9" 12/19-20/2009
9.1" 12/13-14/1917
8.3" 12/19-20/1945
8.1" 12/5/1886
8.0" 12/3-4/1957
8.0" 12/25-26/1909
7.9" 12/5/1926
7.7" 12/19-20/1995
7.5" 12/23-24/1883
7.2" 12/27-28/1990
7.1" 12/24-25/1966
7.0" 12/26/1890
7.0" 12/15-16/1896
7.0" 12/12-13/1904
7.0" 12/3-4/1911
6.8" 12/25-27/1969
6.6" 12/23-24/1963
6.5" 12/25/1902
6.2" 12/12-14/1902
6.2" 12/23-24/1961
6.0" 12/27-28/1873
6.0" 12/22-23/1896
6.0" 12/17-18/1904
6.0" 12/5/2002

Great info!


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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, uncle W said:

6" plus December snowstorms in NYC...

35 times NYC saw a snowstorm 6" or greater in Dec...December 26 had five major storms...15 storms from the 21st to 26th...

amount...dates......

26.4" 12/26-27/1947

20.0" 12/26-27/2010

18.0" 12/26/1872

16.0" 12/19-20/1948

15.2" 12/11-12/1960

14.0" 12/5-7/2003

13.7" 12/21-22/1959

12.7" 12/15/1916

12.0" 12/30/2000

11.4" 12/24/1912

11.2" 12/26/1933

10.9" 12/19-20/2009

9.1" 12/13-14/1917

8.3" 12/19-20/1945

8.1" 12/5/1886

8.0" 12/3-4/1957

8.0" 12/25-26/1909

7.9" 12/5/1926

7.7" 12/19-20/1995

7.5" 12/23-24/1883

7.2" 12/27-28/1990

7.1" 12/24-25/1966

7.0" 12/26/1890

7.0" 12/15-16/1896

7.0" 12/12-13/1904

7.0" 12/3-4/1911

6.8" 12/25-27/1969

6.6" 12/23-24/1963

6.5" 12/25/1902

6.2" 12/12-14/1902

6.2" 12/23-24/1961

6.0" 12/27-28/1873

6.0" 12/22-23/1896

6.0" 12/17-18/1904

6.0" 12/5/2002

Uncle:

I have 37 storms in December 6 inches or more. I noticed the two I have that you do not are Dec 17-18 1932 7.2 inches and Dec 13-14 1915 6.0 inches. When you get a chance I'm curious what you have measurement wise for those dates.

 

Thanks

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Uncle:

I have 37 storms in December 6 inches or more. I noticed the two I have that you do not are Dec 17-18 1932 7.2 inches and Dec 13-14 1915 6.0 inches. When you get a chance I'm curious what you have measurement wise for those dates.

 

Thanks

you are correct...I omitted them by mistake...

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Ridiculous winter warmth continues for Alaska. 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

Blog updates this month are starting to sound like a broken record, but that's also an apt description of the extraordinary weather pattern that continues to pump warm air northward across Alaska.  The warmth has been very anomalous, but the persistence of the pattern may be the biggest story, as Fairbanks has now seen 17 consecutive days with a daily high temperature of 20°F or higher and a low temperature above 0°F.  The 1981-2010 normals for the time of year are around +5°F and -12°F for the high and low respectively.

Looking back at the Fairbanks history from 1930-present, the December-February record for consecutive days above 0°F is 18 days, so it looks like this may be broken soon.  It's a pretty amazing achievement when you consider that any given day is about 80% likely to see 0°F or lower in December in Fairbanks (all else being equal, i.e. based on the 1981-present climatology).

As I mentioned the other day, the 3 long-term climate sites of Fairbanks, McGrath, and Bettles have never recorded such a lengthy period in winter with a combined average temperature of more than 1 standard deviation above normal.  Of the 3 locations, Bettles has been the warmest relative to normal, and they haven't even seen a sub-zero temperature so far this month (see figures below).  No other year in their climate record comes close to the warmth for the first 18 days of December, although of course Bettles climate data does not include December 1934 - and that remarkable month was marginally warmer than this year in Fairbanks through the 18th (but then turned colder in the last 10 days of the month).

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Ridiculous winter warmth continues for Alaska. 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

Blog updates this month are starting to sound like a broken record, but that's also an apt description of the extraordinary weather pattern that continues to pump warm air northward across Alaska.  The warmth has been very anomalous, but the persistence of the pattern may be the biggest story, as Fairbanks has now seen 17 consecutive days with a daily high temperature of 20°F or higher and a low temperature above 0°F.  The 1981-2010 normals for the time of year are around +5°F and -12°F for the high and low respectively.

Looking back at the Fairbanks history from 1930-present, the December-February record for consecutive days above 0°F is 18 days, so it looks like this may be broken soon.  It's a pretty amazing achievement when you consider that any given day is about 80% likely to see 0°F or lower in December in Fairbanks (all else being equal, i.e. based on the 1981-present climatology).

As I mentioned the other day, the 3 long-term climate sites of Fairbanks, McGrath, and Bettles have never recorded such a lengthy period in winter with a combined average temperature of more than 1 standard deviation above normal.  Of the 3 locations, Bettles has been the warmest relative to normal, and they haven't even seen a sub-zero temperature so far this month (see figures below).  No other year in their climate record comes close to the warmth for the first 18 days of December, although of course Bettles climate data does not include December 1934 - and that remarkable month was marginally warmer than this year in Fairbanks through the 18th (but then turned colder in the last 10 days of the month).

It's so warm their polar bears are turning brown lol (seriously- mud there instead of ice for 3 months of the year, when it used to be 3 weeks.)

Greenland's ice cap seems to be getting colder though (at least right now)- did you check out the temps at the Summit Research Station (Summit Camp)?

They are below -60 right now, around the same temp as Verkhoyansk in Siberia.

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Imagine stepping out your front door and breathing air that is -60....I've experienced -27 in Breckenridge a couple of years ago-that was something...

I was reading about there being a place in Antarctica (Vostok, Dome A) where it's so cold that your stuff freezes before it has a chance to come out (if you know what I mean lol.)

 

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NycStormChaser

NycStormChaser

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I was reading about there being a place in Antarctica (Vostok, Dome A) where it's so cold that your stuff freezes before it has a chance to come out (if you know what I mean lol.)

 

I was in The White Mountains of New Hampshire last week and the air temperature was negative 4 and the windchill was negative 10-15. I would look through the viewfinder of my camera and my breath would freeze on the LCD screen. I tried to do a timelapse but the cold was messing with my shutter remote as well. 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, seanick said:

I was in The White Mountains of New Hampshire last week and the air temperature was negative 4 and the windchill was negative 10-15. I would look through the viewfinder of my camera and my breath would freeze on the LCD screen. I tried to do a timelapse but the cold was messing with my shutter remote as well. 

Did you use heated dew strips?

I bought a set but I don't have a controller- don't know if I need one, I also have a voltage regulator control thing with the AC/DC converter thing I got from a hardware store.

 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Ridiculous winter warmth continues for Alaska. 

http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/

Blog updates this month are starting to sound like a broken record, but that's also an apt description of the extraordinary weather pattern that continues to pump warm air northward across Alaska.  The warmth has been very anomalous, but the persistence of the pattern may be the biggest story, as Fairbanks has now seen 17 consecutive days with a daily high temperature of 20°F or higher and a low temperature above 0°F.  The 1981-2010 normals for the time of year are around +5°F and -12°F for the high and low respectively.

Looking back at the Fairbanks history from 1930-present, the December-February record for consecutive days above 0°F is 18 days, so it looks like this may be broken soon.  It's a pretty amazing achievement when you consider that any given day is about 80% likely to see 0°F or lower in December in Fairbanks (all else being equal, i.e. based on the 1981-present climatology).

As I mentioned the other day, the 3 long-term climate sites of Fairbanks, McGrath, and Bettles have never recorded such a lengthy period in winter with a combined average temperature of more than 1 standard deviation above normal.  Of the 3 locations, Bettles has been the warmest relative to normal, and they haven't even seen a sub-zero temperature so far this month (see figures below).  No other year in their climate record comes close to the warmth for the first 18 days of December, although of course Bettles climate data does not include December 1934 - and that remarkable month was marginally warmer than this year in Fairbanks through the 18th (but then turned colder in the last 10 days of the month).

I just realized something. Feb 35 produced the coldest temp at KNYC. I wonder if that winter also saw a ridiculous -epo. Interesting to say the least

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Welp, I guess I am going to be in the Poconos for that one lol.

entire run of the GFS OP is suffering from a severe case of feedback - the upper air pattern of the OP is in disagreement with its ensembles again as was the case in earlier runs … 

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