Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: Why do people care so much whether it's the last week of December or the first week of January? It doesn't really matter. I personally think we'll be cold and dry for awhile but the snowy pattern will begin around New Years. That's how it usually works. Based on the above, looks like PB is also initially worried about suppression. 2 reasons-Christmas is in the equation. Also- the weekies warm us up after 1/10 so if it's the first week of Jan we waste a week of the pattern. No surprised its delayed, pattern changes are often rushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I wish everyone would step back and relax in the instance that the atmosphere - something which we have zero control over - doesn’t acquiesce to our belief. It’s amazing to watch the weather, and enjoy a snowstorm or a warm, sunny day. Tracking snowstorms and beautiful weather is a nice escape for me that I now get to share with my children.We don’t need to take every model run so personally. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 What the heck just happened with bitcoin cash and why did I get free bitcoin cash from coinbase will someone explain that to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 It would be awesome if staff from other forums would stop coming here to bash this subforum. We welcome your posts though. Do I go to your boards and bash them? No. Please show some common courtesy. I always respect the places I post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: What the heck just happened with bitcoin cash and why did I get free bitcoin cash from coinbase will someone explain that to me? It's all over twitter, check it out. https://twitter.com/search?q="Bitcoin Cash"&src=tren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Man I keep saying this over and over. It’s like model runs are what really will happen. 97 on the island sucked. An inch of paste Funny thing is it almost seems like some people get more excitement from model runs than the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, Paragon said: Funny thing is it almost seems like some people get more excitement from model runs than the actual event. Yeah I’ll never ever get that. I only check the models occasionally. I get most of my info from here then formulate an opinion. The best posters are the ones who inject real meteorology and experience. Anyone can rattle off a play by play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I’ll never ever get that. I only check the models occasionally. I get most of my info from here then formulate an opinion. The best posters are the ones who inject real meteorology and experience. Anyone can rattle off a play by play. It's best to avoid the craze and just check once a day- usually late at night when it's more relaxed. That way you can laugh at the emotional swings from run to run without falling victim to it yourself and maybe inject a snarky comment or two while everyone's sleeping haha. Funniest thing I find is how sometimes when people do model play by play, one person says one thing and another person says the complete opposite thing in the next post and an "innocent bystander" then posts- So which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6" plus December snowstorms in NYC... 35 times NYC saw a snowstorm 6" or greater in Dec...December 26 had five major storms...15 storms from the 21st to 26th... amount...dates...... 26.4" 12/26-27/1947 20.0" 12/26-27/2010 18.0" 12/26/1872 16.0" 12/19-20/1948 15.2" 12/11-12/1960 14.0" 12/5-7/2003 13.7" 12/21-22/1959 12.7" 12/15/1916 12.0" 12/30/2000 11.4" 12/24/1912 11.2" 12/26/1933 10.9" 12/19-20/2009 9.1" 12/13-14/1917 8.3" 12/19-20/1945 8.1" 12/5/1886 8.0" 12/3-4/1957 8.0" 12/25-26/1909 7.9" 12/5/1926 7.7" 12/19-20/1995 7.5" 12/23-24/1883 7.2" 12/27-28/1990 7.1" 12/24-25/1966 7.0" 12/26/1890 7.0" 12/15-16/1896 7.0" 12/12-13/1904 7.0" 12/3-4/1911 6.8" 12/25-27/1969 6.6" 12/23-24/1963 6.5" 12/25/1902 6.2" 12/12-14/1902 6.2" 12/23-24/1961 6.0" 12/27-28/1873 6.0" 12/22-23/1896 6.0" 12/17-18/1904 6.0" 12/5/2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Nice cold front passed through here. real cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6" plus December snowstorms in NYC... 35 times NYC saw a snowstorm 6" or greater in Dec...December 26 had five major storms...15 storms from the 21st to 26th... amount...dates...... 26.4" 12/26-27/1947 20.0" 12/26-27/2010 18.0" 12/26/1872 16.0" 12/19-20/1948 15.2" 12/11-12/1960 14.0" 12/5-7/2003 13.7" 12/21-22/1959 12.7" 12/15/1916 12.0" 12/30/2000 11.4" 12/24/1912 11.2" 12/26/1933 10.9" 12/19-20/2009 9.1" 12/13-14/1917 8.3" 12/19-20/1945 8.1" 12/5/1886 8.0" 12/3-4/1957 8.0" 12/25-26/1909 7.9" 12/5/1926 7.7" 12/19-20/1995 7.5" 12/23-24/1883 7.2" 12/27-28/1990 7.1" 12/24-25/1966 7.0" 12/26/1890 7.0" 12/15-16/1896 7.0" 12/12-13/1904 7.0" 12/3-4/1911 6.8" 12/25-27/1969 6.6" 12/23-24/1963 6.5" 12/25/1902 6.2" 12/12-14/1902 6.2" 12/23-24/1961 6.0" 12/27-28/1873 6.0" 12/22-23/1896 6.0" 12/17-18/1904 6.0" 12/5/2002Great info!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, uncle W said: 6" plus December snowstorms in NYC... 35 times NYC saw a snowstorm 6" or greater in Dec...December 26 had five major storms...15 storms from the 21st to 26th... amount...dates...... 26.4" 12/26-27/1947 20.0" 12/26-27/2010 18.0" 12/26/1872 16.0" 12/19-20/1948 15.2" 12/11-12/1960 14.0" 12/5-7/2003 13.7" 12/21-22/1959 12.7" 12/15/1916 12.0" 12/30/2000 11.4" 12/24/1912 11.2" 12/26/1933 10.9" 12/19-20/2009 9.1" 12/13-14/1917 8.3" 12/19-20/1945 8.1" 12/5/1886 8.0" 12/3-4/1957 8.0" 12/25-26/1909 7.9" 12/5/1926 7.7" 12/19-20/1995 7.5" 12/23-24/1883 7.2" 12/27-28/1990 7.1" 12/24-25/1966 7.0" 12/26/1890 7.0" 12/15-16/1896 7.0" 12/12-13/1904 7.0" 12/3-4/1911 6.8" 12/25-27/1969 6.6" 12/23-24/1963 6.5" 12/25/1902 6.2" 12/12-14/1902 6.2" 12/23-24/1961 6.0" 12/27-28/1873 6.0" 12/22-23/1896 6.0" 12/17-18/1904 6.0" 12/5/2002 Uncle: I have 37 storms in December 6 inches or more. I noticed the two I have that you do not are Dec 17-18 1932 7.2 inches and Dec 13-14 1915 6.0 inches. When you get a chance I'm curious what you have measurement wise for those dates. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Uncle: I have 37 storms in December 6 inches or more. I noticed the two I have that you do not are Dec 17-18 1932 7.2 inches and Dec 13-14 1915 6.0 inches. When you get a chance I'm curious what you have measurement wise for those dates. Thanks you are correct...I omitted them by mistake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: You were riding the GFS yesterday like sea biscuit Are you new here? Metsfan will ride whatever model shows cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Are you new here? Metsfan will ride whatever model shows cold/snow. I have my explanination why I think the warm models are wrong for xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, Rjay said: Are you new here? Metsfan will ride whatever model shows cold/snow. Sounds like Westworld. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, North and West said: Sounds like Westworld. Dakota Pam, where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I have my explanination why I think the warm models are wrong for xmas. It's all good. You do you. I think Christmas is cold. We'll see about any precip over the coming day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Ridiculous winter warmth continues for Alaska. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/ Blog updates this month are starting to sound like a broken record, but that's also an apt description of the extraordinary weather pattern that continues to pump warm air northward across Alaska. The warmth has been very anomalous, but the persistence of the pattern may be the biggest story, as Fairbanks has now seen 17 consecutive days with a daily high temperature of 20°F or higher and a low temperature above 0°F. The 1981-2010 normals for the time of year are around +5°F and -12°F for the high and low respectively. Looking back at the Fairbanks history from 1930-present, the December-February record for consecutive days above 0°F is 18 days, so it looks like this may be broken soon. It's a pretty amazing achievement when you consider that any given day is about 80% likely to see 0°F or lower in December in Fairbanks (all else being equal, i.e. based on the 1981-present climatology). As I mentioned the other day, the 3 long-term climate sites of Fairbanks, McGrath, and Bettles have never recorded such a lengthy period in winter with a combined average temperature of more than 1 standard deviation above normal. Of the 3 locations, Bettles has been the warmest relative to normal, and they haven't even seen a sub-zero temperature so far this month (see figures below). No other year in their climate record comes close to the warmth for the first 18 days of December, although of course Bettles climate data does not include December 1934 - and that remarkable month was marginally warmer than this year in Fairbanks through the 18th (but then turned colder in the last 10 days of the month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Ridiculous winter warmth continues for Alaska. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/ Blog updates this month are starting to sound like a broken record, but that's also an apt description of the extraordinary weather pattern that continues to pump warm air northward across Alaska. The warmth has been very anomalous, but the persistence of the pattern may be the biggest story, as Fairbanks has now seen 17 consecutive days with a daily high temperature of 20°F or higher and a low temperature above 0°F. The 1981-2010 normals for the time of year are around +5°F and -12°F for the high and low respectively. Looking back at the Fairbanks history from 1930-present, the December-February record for consecutive days above 0°F is 18 days, so it looks like this may be broken soon. It's a pretty amazing achievement when you consider that any given day is about 80% likely to see 0°F or lower in December in Fairbanks (all else being equal, i.e. based on the 1981-present climatology). As I mentioned the other day, the 3 long-term climate sites of Fairbanks, McGrath, and Bettles have never recorded such a lengthy period in winter with a combined average temperature of more than 1 standard deviation above normal. Of the 3 locations, Bettles has been the warmest relative to normal, and they haven't even seen a sub-zero temperature so far this month (see figures below). No other year in their climate record comes close to the warmth for the first 18 days of December, although of course Bettles climate data does not include December 1934 - and that remarkable month was marginally warmer than this year in Fairbanks through the 18th (but then turned colder in the last 10 days of the month). It's so warm their polar bears are turning brown lol (seriously- mud there instead of ice for 3 months of the year, when it used to be 3 weeks.) Greenland's ice cap seems to be getting colder though (at least right now)- did you check out the temps at the Summit Research Station (Summit Camp)? They are below -60 right now, around the same temp as Verkhoyansk in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Imagine stepping out your front door and breathing air that is -60....I've experienced -27 in Breckenridge a couple of years ago-that was something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Imagine stepping out your front door and breathing air that is -60....I've experienced -27 in Breckenridge a couple of years ago-that was something... I was reading about there being a place in Antarctica (Vostok, Dome A) where it's so cold that your stuff freezes before it has a chance to come out (if you know what I mean lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: I was reading about there being a place in Antarctica (Vostok, Dome A) where it's so cold that your stuff freezes before it has a chance to come out (if you know what I mean lol.) I was in The White Mountains of New Hampshire last week and the air temperature was negative 4 and the windchill was negative 10-15. I would look through the viewfinder of my camera and my breath would freeze on the LCD screen. I tried to do a timelapse but the cold was messing with my shutter remote as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, seanick said: I was in The White Mountains of New Hampshire last week and the air temperature was negative 4 and the windchill was negative 10-15. I would look through the viewfinder of my camera and my breath would freeze on the LCD screen. I tried to do a timelapse but the cold was messing with my shutter remote as well. Did you use heated dew strips? I bought a set but I don't have a controller- don't know if I need one, I also have a voltage regulator control thing with the AC/DC converter thing I got from a hardware store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Ridiculous winter warmth continues for Alaska. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/ Blog updates this month are starting to sound like a broken record, but that's also an apt description of the extraordinary weather pattern that continues to pump warm air northward across Alaska. The warmth has been very anomalous, but the persistence of the pattern may be the biggest story, as Fairbanks has now seen 17 consecutive days with a daily high temperature of 20°F or higher and a low temperature above 0°F. The 1981-2010 normals for the time of year are around +5°F and -12°F for the high and low respectively. Looking back at the Fairbanks history from 1930-present, the December-February record for consecutive days above 0°F is 18 days, so it looks like this may be broken soon. It's a pretty amazing achievement when you consider that any given day is about 80% likely to see 0°F or lower in December in Fairbanks (all else being equal, i.e. based on the 1981-present climatology). As I mentioned the other day, the 3 long-term climate sites of Fairbanks, McGrath, and Bettles have never recorded such a lengthy period in winter with a combined average temperature of more than 1 standard deviation above normal. Of the 3 locations, Bettles has been the warmest relative to normal, and they haven't even seen a sub-zero temperature so far this month (see figures below). No other year in their climate record comes close to the warmth for the first 18 days of December, although of course Bettles climate data does not include December 1934 - and that remarkable month was marginally warmer than this year in Fairbanks through the 18th (but then turned colder in the last 10 days of the month). I just realized something. Feb 35 produced the coldest temp at KNYC. I wonder if that winter also saw a ridiculous -epo. Interesting to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 wacky 0Z GFS Snowfall Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: wacky 0Z GFS Snowfall Map Welp, I guess I am going to be in the Poconos for that one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 32 minutes ago, Paragon said: Welp, I guess I am going to be in the Poconos for that one lol. entire run of the GFS OP is suffering from a severe case of feedback - the upper air pattern of the OP is in disagreement with its ensembles again as was the case in earlier runs … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 37 minutes ago, Paragon said: Welp, I guess I am going to be in the Poconos for that one lol. I’ll take my foot and 30” at my ski house in southern Vermont! I’d call that the PB fail storm, as in central jersey sees its opposite feb 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 GFS run through 384 is even wackier. Basically 2 HECS's in a row within 5 days of each other for places NW of New York City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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