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Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Still not a legit threat, but it's nice to see these popping up  under D10.  Signaling is there

The only "concrete" thing I can take away from the gfs op is active energy flow behind the big front. That could easily morph into sunny and chilly but for now ops seems to think there will be some activity dropping down the back of the western ridge after we cool down. About as much as you can hope for at these types of lead times. 

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It was only a matter of time before coastals like this started showing up on op's considering the pattern.

Verbatim a stripe of 8"+ from RIC to BOS. 

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

first flakes

 

 

Model algorithms like to show snow on the back edge of events like that but it’s just fools gold. It’s the past six hours precip combined with the instantaneous 850mb temps. In reality, it will just be breezy and chilly at that time.

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The energy diving down into the central part of the country at roughly hours 180-200 is the one to watch in the coming days. Depending on what the southwest trough does that has some good potential. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

I will say this much. Once that front goes through, the atmosphere is spinning all around us. So at least we'll have a few shots it seems.

Yup. There’s going to be clippers, but those are short lead time events. Hopefully we can score one or two.

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

498 DM heights in N MN at 216 with large arctic blast incoming -- below zero temps in ND

Below zero 2m temps in Northern Plains at 234-240

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The run through 240 is actually reasonable and it fits in with what the ensembles have been advertising for the last day or two.

eta: A post frontal storm and then the possibility of a followup a couple of days later.

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