mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS has trended like the GEFS with the WAR d10+. I actually kinda like it because both models show abundant cold nearby and overhead. The war should keep flow aligned along the coast instead of off the coast. The more we move forward in time the more it looks like an active period is on deck and less worry about cold/dry. I'll trade the risk of temp problems with multiple precip events and hug the fact that the last couple times we had a -epo/war combo it produced in prolific fashion. I'll prob be eating these words in a week....haha Looking at the EPS, the cold starts to regenerate after moderating (but still staying BN) by day 13, so that by Day 15, temps are dropping again with the core emanating from the Great Lakes. I'm thinking my 12/17-12/21 call may be in jeopardy, but in a good way. lol Also, note that by the end of the EPS run the -NAO is rebuilding and there's a fat-azz ridge right over the Pole. Very pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the EPS, the cold starts to regenerate after moderating (but still staying BN) by day 13, so that by Day 15, temps are dropping again with the core emanating from the Great Lakes. I'm thinking my 12/17-12/21 call may be in jeopardy, but in a good way. lol Also, note that by the end of the EPS run the -NAO is rebuilding and there's a fat-azz ridge right over the Pole. Very pretty. How does the EPO look by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 EPS has trended like the GEFS with the WAR d10+. I actually kinda like it because both models show abundant cold nearby and overhead. The war should keep flow aligned along the coast instead of off the coast. The more we move forward in time the more it looks like an active period is on deck and less worry about cold/dry. I'll trade the risk of temp problems with multiple precip events and hug the fact that the last couple times we had a -epo/war combo it produced in prolific fashion. I'll prob be eating these words in a week....hahaGetting a little action with the WAR in this setup is certainly a good thing if you want better chance of at least moderate impact systems. Getting the baroclinic zone to setup shop from Hatteras on NE will open door for multiple waves to come riding up over the course of a week starting Day 7/8. Add in a chance at a clipper or two, it’s looks good for the first decent chance at flakes for the season. I love cold smoke as much as next guy, but I wouldn’t mind flirting the line to get in on some good stuff like you mentioned. Those highs to north will be funneling in some very nice CP airmasses. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z GFS ensembles have it dropping from warm to cold on a few individual members and a large mass of precip... maybe thunderstorms to wind,cold,dry snow. It will be interesting to see what the next few days model runs do with this, maybe they develop a strong Low. We usually don't see such incredible warm-cold precip gradient potential. P003 at 168 is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: How does the EPO look by then? Great. Looks like day 10 again. More or les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Great. Looks like day 10 again. More or les. Jeez. Every run of the models is a joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 36 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the EPS, the cold starts to regenerate after moderating (but still staying BN) by day 13, so that by Day 15, temps are dropping again with the core emanating from the Great Lakes. I'm thinking my 12/17-12/21 call may be in jeopardy, but in a good way. lol Also, note that by the end of the EPS run the -NAO is rebuilding and there's a fat-azz ridge right over the Pole. Very pretty. A nice look, and tends to follow the thoughts of Isotherm in the NY thread . He feels the NAO becomes more negative after mid month and favors the possibility of a signifcant to major + event in that time frame of Dec 15 to 30th. I am in :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Jeez. Every run of the models is a joy. Yeh that EPS is a thing of beauty. We Keep the -EPO going and then build back heights over Greenland towards the end of the run. If that’s right this pattern will lock in for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 30-day outlook from earlier today calls for a "persistence of below normal temperatures into the latter half of "December ... and A LARGER COVERAGE OF INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN U.S., BUT PRECIPITATION AT THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER AND POTENTIAL FOR WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP WITH THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LIMIT FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION VERIFYING. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Yeh that EPS is a thing of beauty. We Keep the -EPO going and then build back heights over Greenland towards the end of the run. If that’s right this pattern will lock in for awhile. It’s almost like it’s anchored or rooted....interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 35 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Getting a little action with the WAR in this setup is certainly a good thing if you want better chance of at least moderate impact systems. Getting the baroclinic zone to setup shop from Hatteras on NE will open door for multiple waves to come riding up over the course of a week starting Day 7/8. Add in a chance at a clipper or two, it’s looks good for the first decent chance at flakes for the season. I love cold smoke as much as next guy, but I wouldn’t mind flirting the line to get in on some good stuff like you mentioned. Those highs to north will be funneling in some very nice CP airmasses. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Since none of us possess special powers to make it snow...lol...I'll glady accept any and every pattern that isn't a shutout. The cool thing is next week appears to be a flip to an extended period of a half decent pattern for snow. I would rate it as above normal chances (not that AN means much in the MA). Having brief windows sandwiched between a disaster and a torch really sucks. Especially when it lasts like 6 weeks. At the very least, the most important ingredient for snow (cold) looks favorable. We REALLY need that during the first half of Dec. I'm hoping the first legit threat isn't a climo gradient where I sit @ 35 surface and +1 850's with rain while PSU/losetoa6/sparky/mappy are afraid to post pics of their ongoing paste bomb because the mob will attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Yeh that EPS is a thing of beauty. We Keep the -EPO going and then build back heights over Greenland towards the end of the run. If that’s right this pattern will lock in for awhile. If that's the case I'll lose sleep every night waiting for the 0z GFS/GEFS. I'm not complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: If that's the case I'll lose sleep every night waiting for the 0z GFS/GEFS. I'm not complaining Best to have this pattern at holidays when work is less busy...waiting for March is just awful...low sun is where it’s at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Best to have this pattern at holidays when work is less busy...waiting for March is just awful...low sun is where it’s at Not having to worry about the storm starting at night or relying on it being below 32 degrees at the start of the storm is the best thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 No backside 500mb vort on 18z thru 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Very cold Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: No backside 500mb vort on 18z thru 144 Gone. A few mood flakes with the front, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Gone. A few mood flakes with the front, maybe. Yup. Noticeable differences between 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 It’s an amplified flow it’s just not sharply amplified and too east..but could change in later runs of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Look at 18z Friday. Bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Yes but man that 500mb pattern. It’s just crazy. Something will pop with that I just feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Look at 18z Friday. Bone dry I still think the late next week time frame is a bit early. We could easily score with a clipper in this pattern, otherwise its probably closer to mid month for something bigger. Good thing is the EPS looked super nice. This pattern appears to have some staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s an amplified flow it’s just not sharply amplified and too east..but could change in later runs of course These type of large sprawling troughs rarely work out, shortwaves often have trouble amplifying. 12z was probably the best case scenario, and everything had to be timed just perfectly for that to have any chance. Still could shift back but I’d say 9 times out of ten these setups end up as cold and dry with any low pressure being weak and well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Certainly a lake effect nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I still think the late next week time frame is a bit early. We could easily score with a clipper in this pattern, otherwise its probably closer to mid month for something bigger. Good thing is the EPS looked super nice. This pattern appears to have some staying power. Yeah I love our chances. GEFS and EPS have brought me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 GFS looks like a bit of a whiff, but I'm betting there will be something in the 10-15d range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: GFS looks like a bit of a whiff, but I'm betting there will be something in the 10-15d range. Yup. We're still looking on the outside in. Quote me on this, we will get at least 1 snow event through this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 More action incoming at 276 hrs from the Dakotas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Whiff to the north. Lousy run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Yup. We're still looking on the outside in. Quote me on this, we will get at least 1 snow event through this period. I feel the same way. The pattern seems conducive. We're getting first flakes out of this at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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