• Member Statistics

    15,537
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gino27
    Newest Member
    Gino27
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Bob Chill

December 2017 Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why is it so hard to get a December to look like that run lol, have to savor that look

 

 

 

Just relentless cold and storm chances on the GFS.  The -EPO becomes quite a powerhouse and never breaks down thru the end of the run 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mitchnick said:

That's not "screwed", that's justice!

Not to mention if the patterns goes down as advertised, it would be upslope bonanza regardless of what any model says verbatim. If the 12z GFS was 100% accurate in its depiction of the upper levels, I guaranty Wisp would get 1-2 feet of snow. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mitchnick said:

No, a trailing vort that hits the coast and develops a storm.....which comes after the exiting front with some snow

ah, yes. thanks. see that now. im skeptical. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mappy said:

ah, yes. thanks. see that now. im skeptical. 

We both (probably all of us) know that there is no accurate way to know how things evolve after fropa next week. The goal posts are separated by a big storm and a complete shutout. I suppose we probably have above normal chances at getting some accum snow. Hopefully we're still having a conversation about snowfall this time next week. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

We both (probably all of us) know that there is no accurate way to know how things evolve after fropa next week. The goal posts are separated by a big storm and a complete shutout. I suppose we probably have above normal chances at getting some accum snow. Hopefully we're still having a conversation about snowfall this time next week. 

its nice to see moving pieces, that is for sure. surely something will give us some snow, but if its a clipper, or a coastal storm, who knows. get the cold in here first and go from there. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's still a crapton of things that have to go right for that coastal to pop.  NS, SS need to hit it just right, gotta have a bit of a WAR or it goes OTS.  there's a kicker behind it too.  Too soon and it messes up the coastal.

 

Just throwing caution flags up so that people slow their rolls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, H2O said:

There's still a crapton of things that have to go right for that coastal to pop.  NS, SS need to hit it just right, gotta have a bit of a WAR or it goes OTS.  there's a kicker behind it too.  Too soon and it messes up the coastal.

 

Just throwing caution flags up so that people slow their rolls.

Sorry can’t hear you over the sound of my snow blower turning on!

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WxUSAF said:

Sorry can’t hear you over the sound of my snow blower turning on!

screenshot_2015-02-01-11-34-17-54ce47b07

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mappy said:

its nice to see moving pieces, that is for sure. surely something will give us some snow, but if its a clipper, or a coastal storm, who knows. get the cold in here first and go from there. 

Yes! The best part of looking at the models this week has been that Torchy McTorchface has made zero appearances. Feels good does it not!? Some great snow opportunities ahead. Can’t wait!  Hope the Euro starts delivering the goods next. Who’s got the keys to the bus? Maybe someone should see if it still even runs. lol. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Based on the GEFS, this looks like the schedule to me:

6-7: fropa with rain

8-9: coastal threat 

10-11: clipper?

12: coastal threat?

13+: overrunning scenario?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A bit more WAR on the 12z GEFS then I would like, esp towards the end of the run when the long-wave pattern retrogrades/relaxes a bit. GEFS seems to be hinting at this every couple runs lately. Way out there though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS is active w/ running waves up from the deep south but that's no surprise because the op looks the same. lol

What I like right now:

-Unanimous agreement that a significant cold front sweeps through this time next week

-Active flow behind the front

-Looking less likely that a PV hammer pounds everything into the GoM

-Strong baroclinic zone this time of year due to warm water and cold continental air clashing

-Decent support for blocking to slow down cold air from running away and cutters look less likely than usual

 

What I don't like right now:

-Storms running boundaries are generally narrow so snowfall would be narrow and the margin between rain or nothing at all is small

-Warm ocean temps would almost certainly cause problems with temps in the mid levels if something organized runs the coast

-Early Dec is hostile snow climo in these parts no matter what models show

-Until the initial frontal passage is modeled correctly (prob not until Mon-tues) models will be very jumpy and we rarely do well on the front side of flips to cold

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well we know how it goes with popping coastal storms at the ideal time and latitude - that rarely works out - but, it does appear that there will be numerous imbedded clipper type systems that could whiten the ground a few times in the next two weeks between the bigger potential storm events.  All-in-all about as good as it gets this time of year.  Should be fun tracking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Summary of the 12z GFS/GEFS: looks good, still 8 days out, but it's exciting for 8 days out. Expect Chuck to make a post titled "80% chance of snow by Christmas", and then talk about a torch through mid December by next Thursday

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is active w/ running waves up from the deep south but that's no surprise because the op looks the same. lol

What I like right now:

-Unanimous agreement that a significant cold front sweeps through this time next week

-Active flow behind the front

-Looking less likely that a PV hammer pounds everything into the GoM

-Strong baroclinic zone this time of year due to warm water and cold continental air clashing

-Decent support for blocking to slow down cold air from running away and cutters look less likely than usual

 

What I don't like right now:

-Storms running boundaries are generally narrow so snowfall would be narrow and the margin between rain or nothing at all is small

-Warm ocean temps would almost certainly cause problems with temps in the mid levels if something organized runs the coast

-Early Dec is hostile snow climo in these parts no matter what models show

-Until the initial frontal passage is modeled correctly (prob not until Mon-tues) models will be very jumpy and we rarely do well on the front side of flips to cold

Good post... fwiw the entire column was fine for the Day 8 snow on the 12z GFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.