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Rtd208

November 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I guess my call from about a week ago with regards to a flip to a milder pattern to end November wasn’t so farfetched after all. Like I said, I didn’t buy the GEFS, instead I favored more of a progressive split flow pattern which looks to be materializing. As promised, cold and dry was the norm the last week with nothing to show for it snow wise. The -AO guarantees you nothing.

Well then. Looks like this winter may have the rare cold and dry/warm and dry theme then. If November can't finish BN. Best we can go for is BN snowfall. Maybe N. 

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1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Well then. Looks like this winter may have the rare cold and dry/warm and dry theme then. If November can't finish BN. Best we can go for is BN snowfall. Maybe N. 

What?

This warm period was modeled by many models until the 1st week of December

GEFS and EPS have the pattern changing around December 5-7.

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Try to keep the unscientific guesses and other stuff in the banter thread, and try to post data to support your positions in this thread please. Otherwise rjay breaks out in hives. 

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What?

This warm period was modeled by many models until the 1st week of December

GEFS and EPS have the pattern changing around December 5-7.

It's about statistics. If we can finish between -0.5 to +0.5. Then we will be fine. 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I guess my call from about a week ago with regards to a flip to a milder pattern to end November wasn’t so farfetched after all. Like I said, I didn’t buy the GEFS, instead I favored more of a progressive split flow pattern which looks to be materializing. As promised, cold and dry was the norm the last week with nothing to show for it snow wise. The -AO guarantees you nothing.

The flip is to N in the 6 to 10 and back BN after day 13.

There's no long mild stretch at all.

Just because it didn't snow ( which in Nov ) is a gift doesn't excuse your call for a mild November ,  we are BN

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3 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Unreal stuff, and global temperatures have gone off the rails in response to this block dissipating. Alot of interesting stuff going on. Downstream effects will persist for months.

GFS-025deg_ARC-LEA_T2_anom_5-day.png

 

So you like BN on the EC for months to come ? 

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39 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

I think we finish BN

You think. The guidance doesn’t support your theory however. And for the record my call was for cold and mostly dry followed by a flip to slightly above normal. I never called for an all out torch as you perceive.

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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You think. The guidance doesn’t support your theory however. And for the record my call was for cold and mostly dry followed by a flip to slightly above normal. I never called for an all out torch as you perceive.

The guidance and analogs all support a BN December 

 

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On 11/1/2017 at 5:33 PM, NJwx85 said:

I'd go above average, probably 3-5 for November with mostly warm and dry conditions separated by a few days of below normal and wet conditions towards mid month before the ridge reloads.

You were plus 3 to plus 5 

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19 hours ago, Dakota said:

High of 76 F @ the WSO today; easily besting the 1915 record for the day of 67 F.

CPC looks very warm from the end of November into the first 7 days of December almost everywhere; especially east of the Mississippi.

Since the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes look warm through 7 December (at the very least); not much cold air to translate to the East Coast until mid-month; though this sort of thing is always subject to potential change.

This may be the only time that your area has beaten NYC by 33 degrees for a high on Thanksgiving.

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19 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

You were plus 3 to plus 5 

That’s not an all out torch, and well within the realm of possibilities. And I don’t know what you’re looking at because the current MJO phase is a mild one through at least the first week of December.

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That’s not an all out torch, and well within the realm of possibilities. And I don’t know what you’re looking at because the current MJO phase is a mild one through at least the first week of December.

The 1st week looks mild

After that is when the tide will turn

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23 minutes ago, Dakota said:

The weather here has been more jejune* than the weather there...with no end in sight.

*Note: Urban Dictionary (their second ranked definition) lists this as "the worst word in the English language".

I'll take it under advisement...

I finally have been getting the best fall colors within the last few days.

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25 minutes ago, Dakota said:

Well, you've been only set back a month from what in once was.

As for our long standing GW debate; Q.E.D.

*Bows to the Victor*

 

Very odd fall here with the record warmth in October followed by the record hard freeze in early November. Numerous trees dropped their leaves while still green or brown. I am just glad that there is enough foliage left for pockets of vivid colors going into the weekend.

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13 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That’s not an all out torch, and well within the realm of possibilities. And I don’t know what you’re looking at because the current MJO phase is a mild one through at least the first week of December.

+5 for the month isnt a torch ? The blank if its not .

What guidance are you looking at ?

The better Euro MJO heads the MJO right into the null phase after 4

More importantly you have OLR drying in the IO by day 5 and the best forcing day 5 - 15 is at the DL ,  that favors a trough in the east.

Lastly the GEFS and EPS put the trough back in the east by day 12 with high latitude blocking.

The first 7 days of December are going to get washed out by the following 10.

The month / guidance / analogs all point to BN

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very odd fall here with the record warmth in October followed by the record hard freeze in early November. Numerous trees dropped their leaves while still green or brown. I am just glad that there is enough foliage left for pockets of vivid colors going into the weekend.

It’s been extremely odd! We are a solid 2 weeks behind schedule. I think it has everything to do with the October furnice. We went from essentially summer to a hard freeze. Broad leaf trees and shrubs without a waxy coating on their leaves just shriveled while some where still green. Good examples are Catalpa, Sweet Gum and Hydrangea. Some of those leaves seem to be permanently stuck as the stems never had time to loosen. The new state of extremes is not good for species that are already stressed in our region. I could see that freeze having killed some weaker trees. We shall see in the spring. Which will likely go from deep winter to full on summer again.

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6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

That’s not an all out torch, and well within the realm of possibilities. And I don’t know what you’re looking at because the current MJO phase is a mild one through at least the first week of December.

Revisionist history.

1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average.  Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above.

2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes.  In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal.  NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below.  And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month.  You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month.  Not happening, not even close.

3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.

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6 hours ago, danstorm said:

Revisionist history.

1) +3 to +5, statistically speaking, is well above average.  Don't know the stats, but it's got to be at least 1 StDev above.

2) There is zero chance that 3-5 materializes.  In fact, there is zero chance the month ends above normal.  NYC was at -2.2 after the 23rd, will stay right there after today's 50/35, may tick up a touch on a mild Saturday, then you have Sunday/Monday which are below.  And then - wait for it - there are three days left in the month.  You'd have to push 70 on all three days to erase that -2 departure in 1/10th of the month.  Not happening, not even close.

3) Are you seriously patting yourself on the back for your "milder" call? A few weeks back was about as cold as it can get for this time of year - to call for milder is a statistical slam dunk, like calling for a less snowy winter after 95-96 ... but but, more plaudits for yourself... ever the board sage.

Sometimes I forget how good you really are.

Kudos.

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6 hours ago, Dakota said:

Not much on the 0z GFS anywhere; save for some light rain changing to snow in NYC as a weak wave forms along an approaching cold front on Day 7 (next Friday).

Most lol worthy part of the run was the rain up at James Bay on Day 9...sort of the equivalent of rain in Winnipeg in mid-January.

Go with the ensembles

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Next 8 days averaging 47degs., or about 4-5degs. AN.

Last 6 days of Nov. averaging 48degs., or 5degs. AN.  Combining this with the current -2.2degs. to date, would allow Nov. to end at 0.75degs., BN.

If Dec. finishes AN, I would say Nov. was just another accidentally BN month.

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Not much on the 0z GFS anywhere; save for some light rain changing to snow in NYC as a weak wave forms along an approaching cold front on Day 7 (next Friday).

Most lol worthy part of the run was the rain up at James Bay on Day 9...sort of the equivalent of rain in Winnipeg in mid-January.

Short to medium range at the surface....sure, I can agree. But even though LR confidence usually decreases, the gfs op (which you referenced), the GEFS, GEPS, and EPS are all far from having 'not much'. As I mentioned for a few weeks, in November we really need BOTH PAC and ATL to be favorable for early winter storm activity. As we progress thru December we can sometimes get away with just one working in our favor. LR as we head towards week 2 December have a very favorable ATL look and decent signaling for a favorable PAC epo as well.
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Dep thru 11/24

NYC: -2.1
EWR: -1.5
LGA: -1.3
JFK: -2.3
ISP:  -0.3
TTN:  -1.7
PHL: -1.2
 

Continue to follow the 2007 Oct - Nov record warmth to cooler than normal, 17 looks to finish warmer

Nov 2007:

NYC: -2.3
EWR: -2.0
LGA: -1.1
JFK: -2.5
TTN -: -2.3
PHL: -1.9

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14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s been extremely odd! We are a solid 2 weeks behind schedule. I think it has everything to do with the October furnice. We went from essentially summer to a hard freeze. Broad leaf trees and shrubs without a waxy coating on their leaves just shriveled while some where still green. Good examples are Catalpa, Sweet Gum and Hydrangea. Some of those leaves seem to be permanently stuck as the stems never had time to loosen. The new state of extremes is not good for species that are already stressed in our region. I could see that freeze having killed some weaker trees. We shall see in the spring. Which will likely go from deep winter to full on summer again.

I can't quite remember seeing such an abrupt hard freeze while the annuals were in a late full bloom. The Impatiens here were still adding new flowers and growing just a few days before the hard freeze hit. The morning of the  hard freeze the Impatiens were lying in a small ball on the ground all shriveled up. In recent years, they first slowed their growth and were in decline weeks before the hard freeze eventually hit later on. So it wasn't as dramatic a looking process. 

These types of extremes are especially hard on the agricultural community. We can remember the record early start to spring late last winter with the peach crop getting wiped out as the hard freeze hit in March.

This was the first time NYC experienced 2 record low temperatures in November following a top 10 warmest October.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

EPS shows the big pattern change starting December 8. Holy blocking.

Triple blocking (-EPO, -NAO, -AO).  If that’s right the second half of December will be rocking and rolling 

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The ensembles continue to forecast the development of another severe blocking regime with the Arctic Oscillation's (AO) being forecast to drop to -3.000 or below. The development of such strong blocking prior to the middle of December has often signaled a colder than normal second half of December. Such blocking as also been a precursor of a blocky winter in numerous cases.

Of course, there are exceptions. December 2012 saw such blocking develop, but the second half of the month remained warmer than normal across much of the CONUS and Canada. In contrast, 2009 saw the development of such blocking and the second half of December was colder than normal. Further, winter 2009-10 went on to become one of the more memorable winters in recent years. The guidance, especially the EPS, seems to be suggesting a scenario that would be more likely to produce a colder than normal second half of December than something like 2012.

At this point in time, I still believe December is more likely than not to be colder than normal in the East (Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, southern Ontario, and southern Quebec). The forecast blocking has reinforced my thinking.

Finally, ahead of these developments, there still remains plenty of fall foliage in and around the New York City Metro Area.

NYBG11252017-1b.jpg

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Not just plenty of foliage still on the trees there is also an awful lot of very green grass and even some flowers seem to be getting a second life this late in the season. I also noticed a mosquito and gnat hatch happened yesterday and today. Thankfully the other stinging insect have gone down for the year and hopefully so have the ticks.

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I have to add that just a few miles north of the city we have had several nights below freezing outside of that cold patch...there are no flowers, no green grass and no insects buzzing around.

Heck, we were below freezing this morning.

I just think that people viewing the forum from afar should have the correct picture of what is going on in the metro area.

 

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