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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Jose lingering around causes there to be a break in the ridge that Maria follows north and out to sea. Jose moving away causes the ridge to rebuild and a chance for Maria to hit the US. 

Yep Jose needs to either dissipate and or move out of the way faster to allow that Ridge to build back.

I'm really surprised at the amount of degradation he went through last night on satellite

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

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An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. 

Doing a little hurricane background this morning. 
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. 
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.

From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.

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45 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. 

Doing a little hurricane background this morning. 
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. 
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.

From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.

Sounds like it's within avg to me. 

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31 minutes ago, medville said:

Sounds like it's within avg to me. 

Then you need to brush up on your math. The first two time periods are 24 years..the third is 16 years. 

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1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said:

An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. 

Doing a little hurricane background this morning. 
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. 
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.

From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

I thought about that as well. And those numbers do not reflect Cat 4 hurricanes that became Cat 5. But the satellite era almost certainly plays a roll in numbers.  

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Just now, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

I was just about to post the same thing.  Unless they've gone back an reanalyzed each storm (and I don't know how you would do such a thing for systems way out in the ocean), the chances that some Cat 4 storms were missed seems pretty high to me.

WRT Jose, I'm not sure him weakening to a low end TS will be good enough to allow Maria to strike the US.  Unless it pretty much just dies or better yet, moves out altogether, the chances of Maria hitting the US are pretty low.  We should know in the next couple/few model cycles if this scenario is a legit possibility.

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

Great post!  I agree on both points....and was thinking the same thing.  The monitoring and technology has improved Vastly since the 50's, 60's, and 70's.   Which in my opinion would make a huge difference in the results.

 

And Jose is falling apart, and FAST.

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If Jose meanders around as a ET cyclone, wouldn't that still give a path for Maria to go OTS? the Also the 12z looks better for PR and St. Croix. putting them potentially on the weaker side of Maria.

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000
URNT12 KNHC 181453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL152017
A. 18/14:43:30Z
B. 14 deg 39 min N
  060 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2758 m
D. 104 kt
E. 035 deg 7 nm
F. 137 deg 115 kt
G. 036 deg 8 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 11 C / 3056 m
J. 16 C / 3041 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0215A MARIA              OB 17
MAX FL WIND 115 KT 036 / 8 NM 14:41:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 31 KT
; 

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...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...
11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18
Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph
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Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h.  From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening.  On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity.  However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.
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