Hurricane Maria

[Morris]

965mb extrapolated per recon. 102 kts SFMR unflagged.

[Morris]

968mb on the dropsonde. 109kts 1 mb above the surface in the NE eyewall on the dropsonde.

[Morris]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[Morris]

For some reason they don't want to say that it's a cat 3 already.

[Master of Disaster]

An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. 

Doing a little hurricane background this morning. 
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. 
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.

From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.

[Windspeed]

Impressive...

[NortheastPAWx]

I would think Jose falling to an ETC already would be a good sign for Maria to come closer to the coast, at least at this early stage.

[Master of Disaster]

Was the lowest pressure 964 on that last pass?

[Morris]

Dropped another 2 mb from the earlier pass. 966 mb now per the dropsonde.

[medville]

45 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. 

Doing a little hurricane background this morning. 
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. 
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.

From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.

Sounds like it's within avg to me. 

[MJO812]

[Crazy4Wx]

31 minutes ago, medville said:

Sounds like it's within avg to me. 

Then you need to brush up on your math. The first two time periods are 24 years..the third is 16 years. 

[Superstorm93]

 

 

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said:

An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity. 

Doing a little hurricane background this morning. 
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity. 
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.

From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

[Master of Disaster]

1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

I thought about that as well. And those numbers do not reflect Cat 4 hurricanes that became Cat 5. But the satellite era almost certainly plays a roll in numbers.  

[Cold Rain]

Just now, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

I was just about to post the same thing.  Unless they've gone back an reanalyzed each storm (and I don't know how you would do such a thing for systems way out in the ocean), the chances that some Cat 4 storms were missed seems pretty high to me.

WRT Jose, I'm not sure him weakening to a low end TS will be good enough to allow Maria to strike the US.  Unless it pretty much just dies or better yet, moves out altogether, the chances of Maria hitting the US are pretty low.  We should know in the next couple/few model cycles if this scenario is a legit possibility.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The ability to see and record the storms every second of their life has also gotten way better....if a storm in the mid ATL hits a RI and jacks up to a Cat 4 for 12 hrs we know it, if that happened in 1960 chances are we wouldn't. 

I suspect we see a west trend in all the models as the plane has found Jose to barely be a 55mph TS and he should weaken quickly and this will allow him to not have the effect on the ridge the earlier model runs had.....

Great post!  I agree on both points....and was thinking the same thing.  The monitoring and technology has improved Vastly since the 50's, 60's, and 70's.   Which in my opinion would make a huge difference in the results.

 

And Jose is falling apart, and FAST.

[dan11295]

If Jose meanders around as a ET cyclone, wouldn't that still give a path for Maria to go OTS? the Also the 12z looks better for PR and St. Croix. putting them potentially on the weaker side of Maria.

[Superstorm93]

New sonde 

120mph at the surface and 150 just above the boundary layer

 

[Morris]

104 kts in NE eyewall on dropsonde

[Morris]

961 mb per dropsonde. Rapidly intensifying.

[hawkeye_wx]

5 mb is a huge drop in just the last 100 or so minutes since the last pass.

Update:  A 31 kt wind at the surface means the pressure is actually 959 mb.... very rapid fall.

[Superstorm93]

 

000
URNT12 KNHC 181453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL152017
A. 18/14:43:30Z
B. 14 deg 39 min N
  060 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2758 m
D. 104 kt
E. 035 deg 7 nm
F. 137 deg 115 kt
G. 036 deg 8 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 11 C / 3056 m
J. 16 C / 3041 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0215A MARIA              OB 17
MAX FL WIND 115 KT 036 / 8 NM 14:41:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 31 KT
; 

[Morris]

Hurricane #Maria Advisory 9: Maria Rapidly Intensifies Into a Major Hurricane. http://go.usa.gov/W3H 

[Morris]

...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18 Location: 14.7°N 60.1°W Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 959 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

[Derecho!]

With winds of 31 knots the dropsonde obviously missed the exact center - probably lower than 961 mb. 

[Morris]

Just now, Derecho! said:

With winds of 31 knots the dropsonde obviously missed the exact center - probably lower than 961 mb. 

NHC went with 959mb.

[Superstorm93]

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional
rapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.
This is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for
Maria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly
conservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h.  From 72-120 h,
land interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected
to cause some weakening.  On top of these general trends, there is
also the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur
that would affect the intensity.  However, Maria is likely to
maintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.

[jpeters3]

Looks like concentric eyewalls may be forming on the Martinique radar.  Hoping this can thread the needle between Martinique and Dominica...

 

 

[donsutherland1]

So far, Hurricane Maria remains on course to reach Puerto Rico in about two days as a major hurricane (possibly a Category 4 storm). Two major hurricanes from the climatological data set for hurricanes within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 11 am position that made landfall on Puerto Rico were the 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane (Hurricane #4) and Hurricane Hugo in 1989. After possible Puerto Rico landfall, Maria's longer-term fate remains unresolved.

On account of its trajectory, climatological odds of landfall on the U.S. Mainland have increased to nearly 50%. However, with extratropical cyclone Jose likely to make another anti-cyclonic loop that moves it closer to the U.S. coast, those odds likely overstate Maria's actual prospects of landfall at present. Instead, the gradually weakening Jose will likely possess a broad circulation that helps turn Maria more to the north and perhaps later northeast, which would result in lower prospects of landfall. Should Jose weaken more rapidly than anticipated, its ability to help steer Maria away from the U.S. East Coast would likely be reduced. Other synoptic features that are not currently modeled as major players could grow in importance, though.

The EPS and GEFS imply a much lower prospect of landfall. Only a handful of EPS members show landfall (one small cluster across Florida and another small cluster along North Carolina's Outer Banks). Many of the ensemble members already depict a northwest trajectory. With Maria still tracking west-northwestward and that motion likely to continue for the next 12-24 hours and perhaps a little longer, the ensembles likely understate the prospect of U.S. landfall. In fact, the NHC has adjusted its track to the left with the largest adjustments occurring over the next 48 hours. In short, all of this implies that Maria will likely make a wider turn than what most of the ensemble members are currently depicting.

Overall, my guess remains that Maria's U.S. landfall probability is about 40%. The southern-most EPS members may offer the most reasonable solution through the next 48-72 hours.