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Tyler Penland

2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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1 hour ago, Phelps said:

GSP and Blacksburg pulled back big time due to warm layer and mixing issues.  I thought I could escape that problem on top of a mountain.  I guess it's March though.  

Yeah, GSP's Winter Storm Watch went from 3 to 5 widespread to "up to 3". Lollipops went from 10 to 5. By this time tomorrow, we'll probably be under just an advisory at most. But that's how mid-March storms go. Anything this time of year nowadays is a bonus I guess. It's still frustrating to end yet another winter with only half of my total snowfall average. After this upcoming week, I wouldn't care if temps were in the 70's from then on. Bring on the beach and golf weather!

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1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Guess I'm pulling for the 12k Nam. Nothing else is worth the time.

I really thought this was our storm but looks like another let down. Eric Webber just put out his map and he has us at 2-5. I'll take it but a day ago I was thinking this one might be the biggest of the year 

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Idk if this is worth noting (I think so) but the euro is running several degree high on DPs for Boone. Currently 38/31. If we stay south of 40 on temps that could have a big effect later. Maybe some IP/zr in spots depending on how thick the warm nose is.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

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I’m not going to get bogged down by amounts. I still think this has potential to be a big storm. Two weeks ago it was in the 70s and we had no hope, so I’ll take any appreciable snow and call it a winter. If it’s any consolation, I remember our last decent storm here in Boone and the NWS had 3 inches as the low percentage “worst case scenario for boone,” and called for maybe an inch.  I got 6. 

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25 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Nws Boone. 3 to 5 with localized up to 8. I still say the ridge tops break 12 inch Mark by midnight Monday. Sugar,beech, Grandfather. 

I certainly hope so - at sugar for a last hurrah ski trip. It’s cold and wet now hoping to see a couple of inches of snow to end the season.  37 with light rain on and off

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39 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

How does it look for the higher elevations of the southern mtns?

Not great for you. Worse for me. Does not seem good for us at all. Actually, eastern Buncombe looks okay. I am tired of this winter and ready for spring.

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4 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

I would take 1. Just 1 inch of snow. 

Yep this is frustrating, thought maybe most of us would see at least a couple of inches.  why is it that mostly its a bust instead of being stronger.  Come on Spring.

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If I'm reading GSP's AFD right, they pretty much have given up on the frontend snow because snow levels won't drop until tomorrow morning or even as late as noon. Maybe 1 to 3 at the highest elevations. Said they aren't going to make changes to the warning or advisories because of the 1 inch of flow snow both Monday night and Tuesday night.

 

I'm sure it has but it doesn't seem like forecasting is a whole better than it was when I was a kid. The exception may being hurricane tracks. How many wholesale changes have we seen this winter alone within 24, 18, and even 12 hours before the event. I guess that unpredictability is what makes this hobby so fun, and frustrating.

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Some of the models have foot amounts at spots in Ashe...Even the GFS is a lot better.

this doesn't happen often, but i may outscore the entire sub forum on this one.

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7 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Some of the models have foot amounts at spots in Ashe...Even the GFS is a lot better.

this doesn't happen often, but i may outscore the entire sub forum on this one.

HRRR looks great for both Watauga and Ashe and really pastes you for sure. Best of luck! 

Either way looks like spring break is gonna last just a little bit longer for App. 

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11 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Some of the models have foot amounts at spots in Ashe...Even the GFS is a lot better.

this doesn't happen often, but i may outscore the entire sub forum on this one.

Any images of the GFS/HRRR

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7 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

HRRR looks great for both Watauga and Ashe and really pastes you for sure. Best of luck! 

Either way looks like spring break is gonna last just a little bit longer for App. 

Really hoping you guys score big time just hoping for 1/2” to get to 20” for the season

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2 hours ago, SnoJoe said:

And where was the rain today? NWS had me at 80% today and I haven't seen a drop. Any rain showing up on radar is still several hours away.

Came up east.  Been raining almost all day across the triad.  Much more than I expected.

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