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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm very surprised at that, but it's not something we haven't seen before. It sucks because the GFS and all the hurricane models were way too far east for a long time, and then at the last minute they one up the Euro.

If this goes due north, into Orlando, it's not just the euro that didn't show that - it's everything except the GFS...

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1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Marco Island had sustained winds to 112 mph. That's close enough to confirm Cat 3 status.

Once on land it becomes more difficult to get sustained winds that high due to frictional effects.

Andy what was the highest gust reported with that ob?  Thanks!

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If this goes due north, into Orlando, it's not just the euro that didn't show that - it's everything except the GFS...

Yeah, but the Euro had the SW Florida landfall while the GFS was still looking to pass east of Miami. I guess it's just another lesson, one of many, about relying on any piece of guidance. Or really, a sobering reminder that we still have a long ways to go in NWP.
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