Tropical Storm Jose

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Will really enjoy the swells from Jose this weekend, that along with late summer conditions are going to make it an awesome mid-late September weather-wise.

That's if it misses

[tdp146]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Will really enjoy the swells from Jose this weekend, that along with late summer conditions are going to make it an awesome mid-late September weather-wise.

This is why September on the beach is great.

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

This is why September on the beach is great.

that plus all the crowds are gone

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

that plus all the crowds are gone

We had three swimmers at jones beach last Saturday, three!!!! Gorgous weather and big surf (Irma). As soon as that swell dropped Jose swell filled right in. Pretty rare for the east coast.

Jose definitly has the worst appearance of its (later) life so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see NHC downgrade to TS at 11. 

Then there's a ton of shear and upwelled waters in its future. This could easily be a weak TS by the end of the weekend

[kdennis78]

This tweet is 3 hours old as of 9:17 p.m. EST, but I thought it was interesting.

https://twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/908088487311802368

The NHC Advisory is not this strong, but I really and truly hope that this is how it pans out!

[winterymix]

4 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

We have a  New England/Canada cruise out of NYC planned for Sept 16th with stops in Boston on the 19th stops in Maine the 20th and 21st and the maritime provinces thereafter. Based on current projections just how rocky will it get?

 

Thanks in advance

I'm no expert for marine forecasting but it seems likely to me that cruise ships off the coasts of mid-Atlantic and off of the coasts of New England

are going to modify their plotted courses as a function of avoiding choppy seas secondary to Jose.

[MJO812]

[kdennis78]

4 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

We have a  New England/Canada cruise out of NYC planned for Sept 16th with stops in Boston on the 19th stops in Maine the 20th and 21st and the maritime provinces thereafter. Based on current projections just how rocky will it get?

 

Thanks in advance

I don't know if this helps you, but here's the end of the most recent Forecast Discussion from the Mt. Holly/Philadelphia office regarding marine conditions in the NJ/DE area:

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through Thursday. Patchy fog possible
tonight. Otherwise, leftover showers should end this evening.
Long period 3-4 foot se swells continue on the Atlantic waters.

OUTLOOK...
Thursday night-Friday night...Generally sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected. Seas forecast to be 3-4 feet.

Saturday-Monday...Conditions may reach Small Craft Advisory
levels as seas may build to 5 feet. Sct afternoon showers.

Rip Currents...
This evening...Moderate except added HIGH risk of RC to 3 NJ
counties for the remainder of this afternoon...our calculator
has no more than moderate risk but a report of lifeguard concern
prompted the issuance.

Thursday: Moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents. Long- period (10-14 sec) southeasterly swells from
Hurricane Jose continue.

Looking ahead...a low or moderate risk is expected Friday then
larger longer period swells from tropical cyclone Jose should
arrives this weekend and we expect moderate or high risk days
from Saturday through at least next Tuesday with swells building
to 5 to 6 feet and period lengthening to near 15 seconds. Even
surfers can suffer injury from wave slam and certainly swimmers
are asked to follow lifeguard and other official advice... and
in my opinion...in these upcoming conditions its not worth the
risk.

The link to the full discussion is here if you're interested. I hope you get to go and that you have a great time!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

These storms have a tendency to drift further west. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I didn't see that coming, NHC to 80mph. There was a short period where it looked a little better but imo it's degraded again. Regardless it's barely holding on to cat 1. 

They did move the cone west which I agree with. I still think this is a miss for the US. Atlantic Canada is in the game 

[donsutherland1]

Considering the position of Jose's turn to the west from tonight's 11 pm NHC advisory and the preponderance of ECMWF ensemble members, my confidence that Jose will avoid U.S. landfall has increased. Periodic outlier forecasts by the UKMET and most recently the 12z ECMWF were noted but don't appear to fit the current pattern, generally forecast synoptic evolution on the ensembles and GFS, or historic hurricane climatology.

With respect to climatology, approximately 18% of hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. Had Jose made the turn to the west at a latitude of 1° further south, that figure would have been approximately 60% higher at 29%.

There remains a larger probability of landfall in Canada. That probability has increased somewhat. Nearly half of hurricanes from the above sample that did not make U.S. landfall ultimately made landfall in eastern Canada. 
 

[Amped]

Damn 200mb left exit regions.

[snowlover91]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Considering the position of Jose's turn to the west from tonight's 11 pm NHC advisory and the preponderance of ECMWF ensemble members, my confidence that Jose will avoid U.S. landfall has increased. Periodic outlier forecasts by the UKMET and most recently the 12z ECMWF were noted but don't appear to fit the current pattern, generally forecast synoptic evolution on the ensembles and GFS, or historic hurricane climatology.

With respect to climatology, approximately 18% of hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. Had Jose made the turn to the west at a latitude of 1° further south, that figure would have been approximately 60% higher at 29%.

There remains a larger probability of landfall in Canada. That probability has increased somewhat. Nearly half of hurricanes from the above sample that did not make U.S. landfall ultimately made landfall in eastern Canada. 
 

 

Great post! I do have a few observations and would disagree on the landfall possibilities though.

1. Models are coming in quite a bit stronger and further west as a result. The recent drop in shear and increasing organization point to this as well. An anticyclone is forecast to build over Jose tomorrow and further reduce the shear. A stronger storm will be closer and further west in this case. 

2. The NHC position seems too far north to me. All the recent microwave passes indicate the center has dropped below 25N instead of moving west. The MLC appears to be at 24.5N as of a few hours ago. 

3. A NE landfall is looking much more probable at this time to me with the interaction between Jose and the shortwave energy sitting over PA. This would swing him NW and close to or near the coast. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Considering the position of Jose's turn to the west from tonight's 11 pm NHC advisory and the preponderance of ECMWF ensemble members, my confidence that Jose will avoid U.S. landfall has increased. Periodic outlier forecasts by the UKMET and most recently the 12z ECMWF were noted but don't appear to fit the current pattern, generally forecast synoptic evolution on the ensembles and GFS, or historic hurricane climatology.

With respect to climatology, approximately 18% of hurricanes that passed within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 pm position (1851-present) made U.S. landfall. Had Jose made the turn to the west at a latitude of 1° further south, that figure would have been approximately 60% higher at 29%.

There remains a larger probability of landfall in Canada. That probability has increased somewhat. Nearly half of hurricanes from the above sample that did not make U.S. landfall ultimately made landfall in eastern Canada. 
 

My personal experience with watching many years of NE weather is that dry August weather yields insignificant tropical coastal activity in NE. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My personal experience with watching many years of NE weather is that dry August weather yields insignificant tropical coastal activity in NE. 

August definitely hasn't been dry here in NJ.

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

August definitely hasn't been dry here in NJ.

South NJ and Delaware is not the NE, the rules are a bit different in concert with the local climate. 0z Euro is something fierce, it will keep evolving this far out which is the scary part. Irma had a long history of trending west under high pressure ridges.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

South NJ and Delaware is not the NE, the rules are a bit different in concert with the local climate. 0z Euro is something fierce, it will keep evolving this far out which is the scary part. Irma had a long history of trending west under high pressure ridges.

What do you mean something fierce? How is it different from the 12z Euro from yesterday?

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

What do you mean something fierce? How is it different from the 12z Euro from yesterday?

Stronger system

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Stronger system

But what about the track?

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

But what about the track?

The ECMWF has Jose passing east of Montauk Point and Cape Cod. No U.S. landfall on the 0z run.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF has Jose passing east of Montauk Point and Cape Cod. No U.S. landfall on the 0z run.

Thanks, Don, more like the 0z GFS now and no second loop/retrograde?

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, Don, more like the 0z GFS now and no second loop/retrograde?

There was no retrograde on last night's run. There is still a cluster of ensemble members that retrograde it, though landfall on that cluster is primarily on the Delmarva rather than NJ.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

 

Great post! I do have a few observations and would disagree on the landfall possibilities though.

1. Models are coming in quite a bit stronger and further west as a result. The recent drop in shear and increasing organization point to this as well. An anticyclone is forecast to build over Jose tomorrow and further reduce the shear. A stronger storm will be closer and further west in this case. 

2. The NHC position seems too far north to me. All the recent microwave passes indicate the center has dropped below 25N instead of moving west. The MLC appears to be at 24.5N as of a few hours ago. 

3. A NE landfall is looking much more probable at this time to me with the interaction between Jose and the shortwave energy sitting over PA. This would swing him NW and close to or near the coast. 

 

The possibility that Jose may have been a little south of the NHC's fix was why I looked at a position 1° further south in latitude. There was a higher landfall probability associated with that position, but still fewer than 1-in-3 such storms made U.S. landfall. I thought the 0z ECMWF had a reasonable track. There remains a degree of uncertainty, so things could still change.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My personal experience with watching many years of NE weather is that dry August weather yields insignificant tropical coastal activity in NE. 

I haven't really looked at that angle. But tropical cyclone tracks can be a function of the prevailing pattern, so a dry pattern with lots of ridging over the NE could be one that limits opportunity for TC landfall in the NE. Windows of opportunity could be limited to times when such patterns relax.

[donsutherland1]

If the 6z GFS is right, we'll be nearing the end of September, Lee will be a memory following South Carolina landfall, and we will still be pondering Jose's fate.

[jbenedet]

Most notable to me is the euro and gfs continue to correct further south and west with Jose's track through 72 hrs. The trend has been for about 4 consecutive runs already...

If this trend continues with a ~150 mile shift further W/SW the chances of a direct hit in the MA/NE either as a result of a block/retrograde evolution or recurve NNE/NE following a trough interaction greatly increases from a current low probability.

The west most tracks per the NHC's latest cone certainly imply Jose bears close watching based on the various H500 outcomes we have seen thus far on guidance beyond day 5.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

[Casualbrain]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the 6z GFS is right, we'll be nearing the end of September, Lee will be a memory following South Carolina landfall, and we will still be pondering Jose's fate.

Maybe this is how Saturn got it's spot.....

[NJwx85]

I didn't see any mention of the 00z UKMET. 

[jbenedet]

6z GEFS with another shift west. Quite a few members are packed closely to the coast, and the mean takes the center close to the BM. Tracks him due north until he's about 200 miles south of MTK, and then sends him ENE ots.

[winterymix]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

6z GEFS with another shift west. Quite a few members are packed closely to the coast, and the mean takes the center close to the BM. Tracks him due north until he's about 200 miles south of MTK, and then sends him ENE ots.

Two of the tropical models see something similar with an approach to the coastline at 120 hours.

It seems Jose is a surfer's dream with nice rollers when conditions are just right.  Nothing destructive though and an eventual

OTS finale.