Diggiebot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: That shows '38 as a cat 2 at LI landfall. Don't think that's right. It wasn't really a cat 3 at landfall but its high forward speed (50-60 mph) added to the wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: That shows '38 as a cat 2 at LI landfall. Don't think that's right. I don't think it was a real cane, at least more of the recent research has suggested that. It may have been a hybrid like Sandy but likely 15-20 mph stronger on max winds. The forward speed is probably what produced the insanely high gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is about the only example I can think of Hazel made landfall as a high-end Cat 4 in SC if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Ok so let's say this pulls NW and due N right into the brushes NC and right into the NY metro area . Can this be worse then Sandy? Also I remember a few days ago I heard something about a cold front coming down from Canada effecting it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: It wasn't really a cat 3 at landfall but its high forward speed (50-60 mph) added to the wind speeds. Interesting, so categorization is based only on a static system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here are the Canadian and the American 12z ens tracks. Going to be fun to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A couple more ERC's and Irma will be a monster. Not good for whoever gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I don't think it was a real cane, at least more of the recent research has suggested that. It may have been a hybrid like Sandy but likely 15-20 mph stronger on max winds. The forward speed is probably what produced the insanely high gusts. What about Donna? Wasn't that 150mph around the Carolinas? That one made three landfalls as a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: Ok so let's say this pulls NW and due N right into the brushes NC and right into the NY metro area . Can this be worse then Sandy? Also I remember a few days ago I heard something about a cold front coming down from Canada effecting it ... I think it depends on where in the NY Metro area it hits and how, exactly it hits? I highly doubt that it's going to merge with a Nor'Easter and become a Superstorm like Sandy did. I think we can make valid comparisons to Irene, Gloria, Floyd, Bob... but we're too far out to make anything of a highly educated guess. I think by 9/5, we'll have a much better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yep. Carol, Diane, Edna etc... These were clustered around the same time period- between 1953 and 1955. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: I think it depends on where in the NY Metro area it hits and how, exactly it hits? I highly doubt that it's going to merge with a Nor'Easter and become a Superstorm like Sandy did. I think we can make valid comparisons to Irene, Gloria, Floyd, Bob... but we're too far out to make anything of a highly educated guess. I think by 9/5, we'll have a much better idea. Yeah pattern is a different world on 9/10 vs 10/28 when Sandy happened. A dynamic upper low phase etc etc is not anywhere near as likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Ok so let's say this pulls NW and due N right into the brushes NC and right into the NY metro area . Can this be worse then Sandy? Also I remember a few days ago I heard something about a cold front coming down from Canada effecting it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hoth said: That shows '38 as a cat 2 at LI landfall. Don't think that's right. It's not, it was a cat 3 at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: I think it depends on where in the NY Metro area it hits and how, exactly it hits? I highly doubt that it's going to merge with a Nor'Easter and become a Superstorm like Sandy did. I think we can make valid comparisons to Irene, Gloria, Floyd, Bob... but we're too far out to make anything of a highly educated guess. I think by 9/5, we'll have a much better idea. I'm not sure "Superstorm" is a valid scientific term. Didn't it just transition into an extratropical storm and its windfield expanded outward? It was the track that was more damaging not some media designation of "superstorm." Sandy was a hurricane right up until a few hours before landfall. By then the surge damage was already etched in stone- and it was from the track, not what type of storm it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: Hazel made landfall as a high-end Cat 4 in SC if I remember correctly. Yeah but we're talking North of OBX. SC has had a few majors. Hugo comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Is this the I curse striking again? Issac (should have been retired imo), Igor, Irene, Ike , Ingrid, Ivan just to name a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah pattern is a different world on 9/10 vs 10/28 when Sandy happened. A dynamic upper low phase etc etc is not anywhere near as likely. Yeah these are our more typical storms- the kind where people, say "This is a hurricane?" Unless you're out in extreme eastern LI or other extreme eastern coastal locations. For our area, rainfall is usually the biggest concern with these storms, not wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah pattern is a different world on 9/10 vs 10/28 when Sandy happened. A dynamic upper low phase etc etc is not anywhere near as likely. Can you or someone post the pattern for Irene leading up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Is this the I curse striking again? Issac (should have been retired imo), Igor, Irene, Ike , Ingrid, Ivan just to name a few Not with this look...Still a week+ out. But with this look, a re-curve is highly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A hazel repeat would be a trip. That thing had 100mph wind gusts into NYC despite heading inland to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The spread between the 12Z EPS and GEFS at D7 amounts to only 100 miles or so. A blend between the two puts it tracking NW on the north side of the Bahamas. After that the EPS mean has an obvious north shift from the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah but we're talking North of OBX. SC has had a few majors. Hugo comes to mind. Yeah, but we've had no Cat 4 LF north of FL since Hugo I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 It's about angle of approach when trying to compare what happened with Sandy, to say a Cat 3 landfall into Long Island. In the former, NYC ended up in the RFQ as it was to the North of the center. A Long Island hit would put NYC in the much weaker NW quadrant. I'm not saying it still wouldn't be a highly impactful event, but just compare the damage around NYC in 38' to that of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Not with this look...Still a week+ out. But with this look, a re-curve is highly likely. Way too early to say anything is highly likely except we will probably be dealing with a powerful hurricane through next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's about angle of approach when trying to compare what happened with Sandy, to say a Cat 3 landfall into Long Island. In the former, NYC ended up in the RFQ as it was to the North of the center. A Long Island hit would put NYC in the much weaker NW quadrant. I'm not saying it still wouldn't be a highly impactful event, but just compare the damage around NYC in 38' to that of SNE. To get a 'Sandy' type of event, a hurricane would have to shoot north to Jersey and make a sudden left turn into the Delmarva area, which is what Sandy did. The chances of that happening again in our lifetimes is about 1 in a million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's about angle of approach when trying to compare what happened with Sandy, to say a Cat 3 landfall into Long Island. In the former, NYC ended up in the RFQ as it was to the North of the center. A Long Island hit would put NYC in the much weaker NW quadrant. I'm not saying it still wouldn't be a highly impactful event, but just compare the damage around NYC in 38' to that of SNE. Absolutely. I'm not entirely convinced that a 1938-type storm can take a Sandy-type track. Hurricanes that strong are more likely to be further east. We have no historical comparisons to it, but we do have a few lower end hurricanes that took the Sandy track going back to the early part of the 20th century. Maybe 1821 represents the furthest west a storm that intense can go without recurving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Way too early to say anything is highly likely except we will probably be dealing with a powerful hurricane through next week. it's still variable, yes, but increasing heights in CONUS over each major global run leads me to believe a fish solution is becoming more probable. Still might change, but weenies need to taper their "excitement" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: it's still variable, yes, but increasing heights in CONUS over each major global run leads me to believe a fish solution is becoming more probable. Still might change, but weenies need to taper their "excitement" This doesn't make any sense as written. Higher heights over the US means Irma would be less likely to gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: What about Donna? Wasn't that 150mph around the Carolinas? That one made three landfalls as a major. Reanalysis: Cat 4 in FL, Cat 2 in NC, Cat 2 in NY http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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