LandofLincoln Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looks north of 00z runs, but south of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No the trof was way back over the Great Lakes if I remember right and wasn't that deep. The trof base may have been over like KY. Most guidance here shows a deeper more progressive trof Remember Gloria very well forecast was for up the Delaware Bay 18 hours out reality was center passing 90 miles east of Atlantic City which brings on much different results inland. Jersey shore winds gusted to 90 or so for a time pretty good surge still as well. Philadelphia gusted to 6o to 65 particularly on Back side when high pressure was building back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, LandofLincoln said: Looks north of 00z runs, but south of GFS. It's a tick North, just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma's best chance at east coast landfall is at the hands of that ohio valley trough. If the trough can lift out before Irma starts to feel the influence, it has a chance to get forced back NNW under that NE HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's a tick North, just noise. At 120 hours, Irma's forecast position is less than 75 miles from the forecast position on yesterday's 12z run. It's also of similar intensity (948 mb vs. 952 mb on yesterday's ECMWF run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Almost identical positioning at 150hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Almost identical positioning at 150hrs Upper air pattern is really close to the GFS at 150. Good agreement this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yeah so the 12Z run at hr 120 looks pretty close to the official NHC track. It is a tad further north than the 0Z run, but still fully within the Hebert box and south of the IVCN consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: Yeah so the 12Z run at hr 120 looks pretty close to the official NHC track. It is a tad further north than the 0Z run, but still fully within the Hebert box and south of the IVCN consensus. What is the Herbert box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looking too far south to recurve and not hit land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 I think the scariest thing here is the massive size of the wind field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: What is the Herbert box? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Considerably shallower trough over the northeast on the Euro at 168 HR compared to GFS. Anything can happen going forward but combine that with Irma being located farther south than the GFS, and there's probably trouble ahead on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: What is the Herbert box? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box Edit: lol...I guess we all like Wikipedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 That trough is trying to erode the ridge, however it's moving out, so it's a crap shoot day 8 thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Checkmate, ridge rebuilding overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Look how much stronger the ridge is over Southeast Canada. Most likely headed for Florida this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Considerably shallower trough over the northeast on the Euro at 168 HR compared to GFS. Anything can happen going forward but combine that with Irma being located farther south than the GFS, and there's probably trouble ahead on this run. Yeah... By 192 the through has pulled out. Completely different than GFS. Irma further SW too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 You can see how much further Southwest Irma is here vs 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Blue is the 12z GFS, Red is the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 It's a good 100+ miles South of 0Z at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro has a escape path, but could nudge under the ridge. Complicated forecast for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 If she stays north of Cuba and Hispaniola, there's not much to interfere with her growing in size and strength. Does anyone have current SSTs in the Carribean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Stronger ridge to north D8 so a little SW of 0z. Looks more like the 0z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Euro has a escape path, but could nudge under the ridge. Complicated forecast for sure... Not on this run, no it doesn't. It's the equivalent of being stuck at the bottom of a well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Please let me finish posting the run, otherwise people become confused. Like I said, headed for Florida. The Bahamas are destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 That there is Hurricane rocket fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: If she stays north of Cuba and Hispaniola, there's not much to interfere with her growing in size and strength. Does anyone have current SSTs in the Carribean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I just realized that Tropical Tidbits compares the 12z run today with the 12z from yesterday, and it is not clearing up a ton of my confusion. Sorry for my misleading post earlier - it makes sense now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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