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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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The GFS does show Irma struggling a tad the next few days, and by struggling I mean it may weaken a little further before it reaches the increasing SST and moister air on Sunday. Sunday night is when the re-intensification process begins. It's all irrelevant of course because all this is occurring at sea, and Irma will still have plenty of time to recover.

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Irma may be a tad closer to the Islands this run based off position at 102... but should still pass north of the Islands as it moves WNW

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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

ERC seems to be complete. New eye is showing nicely on last few IR frames.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah I see that, starting to clear out a larger eye now. We'll know for sure if the pressure starts falling again soon.

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Just now, yoda said:

Irma may be a tad closer to the Islands this run based off position at 102... but should still pass north of the Islands as it moves WNW

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This bit at the end of the NHC disco tells us a lot, this is also a example of forecasting versus model hugging, this is why they get paid the big bucks...the 5 day plot of Irma from the NHC is south of just about all the latest runs...if it goes south of the 20N 60W benchmark then the chances for a US landfall go up quite a bit IMO,

Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance.  Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above.
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23 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This bit at the end of the NHC disco tells us a lot, this is also a example of forecasting versus model hugging, this is why they get paid the big bucks...the 5 day plot of Irma from the NHC is south of just about all the latest runs...if it goes south of the 20N 60W benchmark then the chances for a US landfall go up quite a bit IMO,

Good point. Though, it's also important to point out that in 3 of the last 5 years the TVCx model consensus has beat the humans at 5 day lead times in terms of track. However, I will say that I happen to agree with their decision to go south of the consensus with Irma. It's not that I'm trying to outsmart the models. I'm just recognizing that CTCI has been consistently pulling TVCN too far north and that the EPS mean is on the human's side this time. I could be wrong though...TVCx may end up being the better forecast. It happens.

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Irma further south on GFS run. Also looks slower this run. Still ways out in ocean next Sunday.

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Irma probably gonna stall E of FL on the 12z GFS, the trough is pretty subdued compared to the 06z which is allowing for HP to build to the north and west. They have separate circulations leading to an area of weak steering south of the 2 highs and east of the weak trough.

EDIT: the primary trough at the end of the 7 day period lifts out quickly and leaves a little remnant along the gulf coast that eventually develops into an upper low that looks to kick Irma OTS.

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9 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said:

Whatever way this ends.... the biggest conclusion is that the GFS is still all over the place after a few days.

Perhaps with the overall picture. But to me, it's been remarkably consistent with the track ... within a few hundred miles. Am I missing something?

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Irma still looks a Cat 3. Will give 19N a long kiss this evening before a south of west and eventually WSW motion takes over. The terrific outflow pattern, good surface convergence and negligible shear has really helped Irma make the most of the 27° SSTs. Irma should be moving over 28° SSTs tomorrow afternoon. If the mid-levels remain favorable Irma could reach Cat 4 tomorrow. As was alluded to earlier in the thread by Drz1111, Irma could take on annular characteristics in the coming days after an ERC process or two. The drier air in the mid levels to the north could wrap as Irma's 700-500mb circulation gets larger and expands. Watching to see if banding features begin to show signs of dissipation tomorrow and Irma begins to look like a donut with a large eye. Isabel became annular in the same region of the MDR. Of course, Isabel was quite large when it became annular. Irma will also be losing latitude vs gaining it, which could help it remain in a better moistened envelope, especially around its southern semicircle. Anyway, just somethibg to watch and see whether that evolves or not in the coming days.

 

Environmental conditions for an annular hurricane are going to be in place for this in 3 days or so.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, larrye said:

Perhaps with the overall picture. But to me, it's been remarkably consistent with the track ... within a few hundred miles. Am I missing something?

But if the synoptic scale pattern continues to change, the track is just an artifact, even if it does end up in the same spot. Have to nail down the large scale features before even talking about any sort of track. Point is, the fact that it's getting similar tracks for different reasons carries little, if any, weight. 

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The 12Z GFS is definitely south of the previous cycles and brings it closer to the official NHC D5 forecast. It's also further south at D7. I'm trying to envision different ways the pattern could evolve from D7 and I'm still seeing both CONUS and OTS options on the table.

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Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said:

But if the synoptic scale pattern continues to change, the track is just an artifact, even if it does end up in the same spot. Have to nail down the large scale features before even talking about any sort of track. Point is, the fact that it's getting similar tracks for different reasons carries little, if any weight. 

Yeah, this pretty much sums up exactly what I meant.

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5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

Landfalls in E Long Island and goes straight north

Typically maximum rainfall is 100 miles to the west of the core, maximum winds to the east of course.  Saw this with Bob, which had maximum rainfall at our latitude in eastern portions of the city and western LI, while Gloria had maximum rainfall at our latitude in western parts of the city.  Floyd, which made landfall up here near Jones Beach had maximum rainfall over NJ and E PA (Scranton got 10")

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 Even though the landfall question has varied from run to run as to will it/will it not and if so where the GFS has maintained a consistent east coast track for several runs now. I do not believe that it ever had a run into the Gulf.  Lets see if the Euro follows its 0z east coast  path or if it was a fluke run.

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5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z GFS Solution if it were to verify would cause massive tidal flooding in coastal areas.


 

12z CMC has it east of Jacksonville, FL at 240 hours.  Commonality of both solutions is that large anticyclone stretching from over the Great Lakes to northern NE.  This means that we would be looking at days of a sustained easterly flow piling up ocean waters in coastal areas while the storm approaches.  Even if it stays offshore coastal flooding will be a big problem.  FWIW the full moon is on 9/6.

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Good to see it come back West after 06z was OTS. The precip hole on the GFS is likely from where the LLC actually crosses as opposed to what the wind graphics are indicating. That puts most of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island in the RFQ.

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