Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This hurricane has that "skunked" post ERC look to it to me, right now......perhaps that eventually changes, but often times it doesn't once the colder cloud tops within the CDO begin to take on that shredded look. Often times we wait the rest of its life cycle for that window when it recaptures that rigor, and it just never quite materializes- Don't get me wrong....I'm not saying its falling apart, but I am doubting a reclassification to a cat 5, assuming it is downgraded, which it should be.The first issue with that is the ERC is still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Chicago Storm said: The first issue with that is the ERC is still ongoing. I understand that, but the point is that this particular IRC has manifested itself in this manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/906030889066405888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/906030889066405888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro out to 24 hours more SW than 12z. Just off cuba coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro SW at 24HR, holding serve with this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/906030889066405888 So it's supposed wheelhouse is handling troughs, and it mishandled the trough. Amazing how people, time after time, are willing to give the NAM the benefit of the doubt. Euro has had this all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: So it's supposed wheelhouse is handling troughs, and it mishandled the trough. Amazing how people, time after time, are willing to give the NAM the benefit of the doubt. Euro has had this all along. Exactly. For best practices with tropical systems, just act as though the NAM doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 How does it look at 48 compared to 60 last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 S/W of 12z at 48. Just off north cuba coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This hurricane has that "skunked" post ERC look to it to me, right now......perhaps that eventually changes, but often times it doesn't once the colder cloud tops within the CDO begin to take on that shredded look. Often times we wait the rest of its life cycle for that window when it recaptures that rigor, and it just never quite materializes- Don't get me wrong....I'm not saying its falling apart, but I am doubting a reclassification to a cat 5, assuming it is downgraded, which it should be. Less impressive, sure, but skunked seems excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks like the Keys are going to get crushed next panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Riding cuba coast from 24-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Less impressive, sure, but skunked seems excessive. Everything is relative. More land interaction has resulted in a weaker system this run of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: No models been consistent euro took a decent shift south now One of these things is not like the other. The Euro has been consistently better with track forecasts so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Z-Cast said: I'm not arguing that but as far as LF they've all hopped around run to run euro def most accurate but it has been jumpy not like others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Little bit SE of Tampa at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Wow that's West. Big shift from 12z. That locks it for me, going to bug out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, TPAwx said: Wow that's West. Big shift. Uhhh..... what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Just east of Tampa at 72 Tampa is the bigger thingy more norther. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everything is relative. More land interaction has resulted in a weaker system this run of the EURO. Kind of surprised. I thought the same, but really didn't take too much of a toll on the end result for Keys. Slightly weaker in pressure, but winds were fairly consistent. Splitting hairs at a few mph. Horrendous run for MTH and entire island chain. Miami I'm sure would take this and run. Feel bad for Keys though. Edit: Actually deepened further as it entered the Florida Bay. That's got the warmest waters in all the Eastern Gulf area. 90-92 degrees. Horrible run for Naples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Griizzcoat said: Want to note that that is the GFS, since it may confuse people with it being posted right when the Euro is coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Want to note that that is the GFS, since it may confuse people with it being posted right when the Euro is coming out. my bad-- I will get on EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Tampa is the bigger thingy more norther. Just east of Ft Meyers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Pretty bad run for far southwest areas like Naples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Another I-75 runner heading northwest. I bow to the Euro most of the time, but that movement just seems off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Somewhat less bad for MIA, but exposes most of the peninsula to hurricane winds/gust, and some areas on the SW coast will wake up to a surprise and be scrambling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, otown said: I still think Euro too far west Given how it's performed so far (as has been documented multiple times in this thread) you're probably wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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