OUGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12Z has put the brakes on Irma big time as she approaches FL and the Bahamas...damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 In addition to his many exploits Richard Branson can now claim to have experienced the eye of a Category 5 hurricane. Necker Island in the British Virgin Islands where he is hunkered down is right in the eye at this time per San Juan radar. The next island to get the eye of the storm will be Tortola, then St. Johns and St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: yea not where you want to see irma slow down, highest ocean temps are just south of florida. It's also climatologically a place where storms have intensified. Notably, it has some of the deepest warm water in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 And it's going to take the ride right up I-95 this run, look how far inland the strong winds make it. As a reminder these are 10m winds, not 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just crawling up Florida's east coast. This is a terrible, terrible run for anyone in the Gold Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Picking up forward speed now, looks destined for Savannah. Look how that ridge builds over the Western Atlantic and shoves this West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 That run is close to worst case -- SE coast of FL gets the eyewall, but the storm doesn't lose any punch so when it strike further north it's still a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pretty big shift west from the last run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: Just crawling up Florida's east coast. This is a terrible, terrible run for anyone in the Gold Coast. Model convergence time as the GFS went right to the 0z Euro and EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Even Orlando would likely experience Hurricane force wind gusts if this verified. The track also keeps the core offshore enough that Irma should be able to sustain itself longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pivotal Weather remains up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The upper level jet streak tugging on Irma at hour 96 is more potent on this run. The entry is about 80-90 kts at 200mb on the 12Z cycle instead of 70-80 kts on the 6Z cycle. The low over Missouri is further north and closes off faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Pretty big shift west from the last run . The shift was actually quite small (about 0.5° longitude) and well within the envelope of uncertainty on a run-to-run basis. Bottom line: Florida to South Carolina remain at the highest risk of U.S. landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, beanskip said: And through 24 -- NHC guys will be cussing up a storm if the 12z runs go west. I know I would be. Why? That run was basically exactly what their forecast showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 By the time the ridge breaks down it's too late. Second LF near the GA/SC border as a powerful hurricane. I am assuming that LF occurs initially somewhere in SE FL, but it's very hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The useless GGEM has pretty much the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Landfall right in GA/SC border it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . Yea, I agree with you. In the context of the effects on the MIA/FLL area, it was a sizeable shift west in that it negated any thoughts of an "east trend." I was hoping to see another shift east, but it was not to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Broward County, FL has issued a mandatory evacuation order for areas East of US-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . Fair enough. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and then the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: Last run had it brushing the south east coast . This run had it coming up north from southern florida . So in my eyes if something is going to make a direct hit and not brush off of something m thats a good size shift west . still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Live in an independent/assisted senior facility well inland in Stuart FL. If Irma is forecast to hit here as a Cat Five 150 people will have to evacuate by bus to Tarpon Springs. Roads will be gridlocked and I'm afraid the risks for 150 seniors being stuck on a bus are far greater than staying in this very sturdily-built 3-story building. (See Rita/Houston). So it's not just the forecast of where Irma's going but how intense it will be when/if it gets here that's critically important to us. This board is a Godsend in that regard; keep up the great work. [Just to share one of many such stories playing out in SFL; now back to lurking] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Fair enough. It will be interesting to see the ensembles and then the Euro. Yeah, the 6z GEFS had quite the spread only 48 hour out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift It looks like its about 50 miles further west. Which is the difference between hurricane and non-hurricane conditions for SE FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: still never hits Florida..and like Don said maybe .3/.4 degree shift Much greater impact for the coast however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: It looks like its about 50 miles further west. Which is the difference between hurricane and non-hurricane conditions for SE FL. Oh i dont disagree with that. Just like my two phantom 24-36" blizzard warnings here in CNJ the past 3 years...few miles can make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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