Hurricane Irma

[Taylorsweather]

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

Some better agreement with the hurricane models .. 12z suite

That's a tight clustering for a landfall/scrape of MIA and then a landfall between SAV and CHS.  When you then add the Euro on the left edge and the GFS on the right edge of the above models, it makes it pretty clear that we are nearing consensus.  Doesn't mean it can't change, but I believe the final solution will be near or on MIA with a second landfall in southern SC.

[Met1985]

This should be in the Euro's wheelhouse but this is not a winter storm. This is a very strong cat 5 hurricane. Remember a few miles this way and a few miles that way makes a big difference. I still think we get a compromise of the two models. 

[Wow]

HWRF with a Charleston landfall and a beeline to CLT

[shaggy]

6 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Other people have said the GFS did better then Euro for Matthew but need to go check out the old threads.  Also, this is a completely different GFS and an upgraded Euro.

Oh I agree. I think the fat lady is warming up for any landfall north of MB. The models spit out a token SC/NC border run every once in a while but they have really been harping on the southern SC hit with the left hook. Not letting my guard down totally but my concern is lessening by the model run.

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

Hard to bet against the Euro when it has support from its ensembles.  

Yep...Allan's mega cluster is really nice showing that in general, GA/s-SC need to get ready.

[packbacker]

3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Oh I agree. I think the fat lady is warming up for any landfall north of MB. The models spit out a token SC/NC border run every once in a while but they have really been harping on the southern SC hit with the left hook. Not letting my guard down totally but my concern is lessening by the model run.

Yep, it's hard to imagine Irma getting up to ILM but SAV-MYR looks reasonable.  Capture is so far south.

GFS has been wanting a little more interaction with the NE trough which is probably another reason it's a little further east off FL.

[packbacker]

Thought Bernie had a good discussion on track...

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/905739907909296128

[Snow haven]

so is it the east side or the west side of the hurricane that needs to be worried about tornadoes, if it comes into Charleston ill be on the east side of the cane.

[Cold Rain]

I agree guys.  I continue to think it will hot FL and spend a few hours over land and knock it down to a high cat 2/low cat 3.  It reemerges and then landfalls again in southern SC.  In fact, I could see that being the eastern most solution.

[downeastnc]

The entire SE coast needs to be getting ready.....we are still 4 day or more from a landfall on the SE coast north of Florida....

Here is the NAM 12k loop, I use it cause it has hourly plots and is similar to the GFS and Euro....from hr 33 to 63 it has a sharp turn to the W before turning it back north....this entire motion is what makes this a Miami/FL threat and what leads to a GA/SC landfall....if that doesnt happen or is not as sharp and long as shown then Irma ends up much further east....by the same token if Irma does do this movement and doesnt turn as soon as they show she ends up in S FL...my point is the models are not good enough to have this motion nailed down...look at Irma now it appears she is taking a NW wobble again and she has been on the north side of the plots the last 12 hrs. That is a weird motion and the entire evolution of the storm up the east coast will be determined in large part by how that does or does not happen....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=T850&runtime=2017090706&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=100

[Earendil]

1 hour ago, Earendil said:

This is right over my house.  How accurate do we think this is when all the other models are still putting it near Miami?

Any thoughts on the latest blue lines folks?

[Tony Sisk]

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree guys.  I continue to think it will hot FL and spend a few hours over land and knock it down to a high cat 2/low cat 3.  It reemerges and then landfalls again in southern SC.  In fact, I could see that being the eastern most solution.

That's what I have thought all along. But my concern is once it gets back over water off the FL coast. I see no way this being a CAT 1/2 when making landfall in SC. Unless the trough is going to sheer it that much...I see it being a high 3/low 4.

[franklin NCwx]

36 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

Hard to bet against the Euro when it has support from its ensembles.  

If it misses Cuba and Miami it's a huge bust for the euro. It already looks like a Cuba miss.

[BullCityWx]

13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree guys.  I continue to think it will hot FL and spend a few hours over land and knock it down to a high cat 2/low cat 3.  It reemerges and then landfalls again in southern SC.  In fact, I could see that being the eastern most solution.

Hugo blowing up over the gulf stream is seered into my mind. This aint over if it has interaction with the FL peninsula. 

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, Tony Sisk said:

That's what I have thought all along. But my concern is once it gets back over water off the FL coast. I see no way this being a CAT 1/2 when making landfall in SC. Unless the trough is going to sheer it that much...I see it being a high 3/low 4.

I think that's what the thinking is -- it'll be entering some pretty heavy shear off the coast of GA/SC. You can see it pretty clearly in the video discussion that pack posted above. Having said that, this is Irma, so who knows.

[downeastnc]

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Hugo blowing up over the gulf stream is seered into my mind. This aint over if it has interaction with the FL peninsula. 

Yeah he looked like crap until he was NE off the Bahamas then went boom

 

[Ser Pounce]

11 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

That's what I have thought all along. But my concern is once it gets back over water off the FL coast. I see no way this being a CAT 1/2 when making landfall in SC. Unless the trough is going to sheer it that much...I see it being a high 3/low 4.

Shear... land interaction... makes life fun in Charleston right about now when you're trying to figure things out. Hopefully models in another day will show some clarity since we'll be at about 3 days out at that point.

[griteater]

15 minutes ago, Earendil said:

Any thoughts on the latest blue lines folks?

No one on planet earth knows for sure, but the SE FL coast track looks more likely than a SW FL track.  Just have to continue to monitor

[mackerel_sky]

Starting to get concerned for upstate with these tracks! Maybe time to get some batteries and some water and chainsaws sharpened . Could be ALOT of trees down and power outages! The inland track could be a lot like Hugo!

[FallsLake]

22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I agree guys.  I continue to think it will hot FL and spend a few hours over land and knock it down to a high cat 2/low cat 3.  It reemerges and then landfalls again in southern SC.  In fact, I could see that being the eastern most solution.

CR, when it comes to winter storms I'm pulling for the worse case scenario. But with hurricanes I really don't want it (..Fran broke me of that). Now after saying that I keep going back to history; in which we should expect a hit farther up the coast. The models could be right, but I would definitely put higher weight that this thing goes more north/east than south/west.

Actually, I hope this thing goes way north/east and misses everybody.   

[LithiaWx]

I may end up attempting to get into Savannah/Sullivans Island (slightly inland) on Saturday evening if the storm is still looking like a cat 2-3 hit on the coast.  I've said for years I'd chase if the situation was right and this may be the one.  

 

I've seen the hurricane gates on the way down I-16 may times, but never seen them down and closed.  I'm sure that getting in may be difficult to impossible if they reverse the lanes headed out of SAV into Macon.  That would mean having to take some smaller highways on down which is doable but going to add a while to the trip that's already 3-4 hours.  

 

[Cold Rain]

19 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Hugo blowing up over the gulf stream is seered into my mind. This aint over if it has interaction with the FL peninsula. 

I absolutely wouldn't discount the fact that it could reintensify over the gulf stream.  I have just seen many canes forecast to reemerge from land and restrengthen, only to be too disrupted to get it back together quickly enough before restriking land.  Hugo was coming straight from the ocean.  Irma will likely have impacted Fl, absorbed dry air, and will be fighting increased shear.  My guess is that it would be a good while before she could recover a tight inner core, free from dry air.  If she spends time over FL, then I think the odds of a cat 4 or even a high end cat 3 at second landfall are greatly decreased.  If she can remain well away from FL, then all bets are off, and good luck to the good people of SC.

7 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

CR, when it comes to winter storms I'm pulling for the worse case scenario. But with hurricanes I really don't want it (..Fran broke me of that). Now after saying that I keep going back to history; in which we should expect a hit farther up the coast. The models could be right, but I would definitely put higher weight that this thing goes more north/east than south/west.

Actually, I hope this thing goes way north/east and misses everybody.   

Climo is in your favor.  But I would just point out that this storm is already against climo.  It's pretty amazing how consistent the models, in general, have been on a lower SC landfall.  I still expect that to oscillate.  Hard to believe that remains static for 8+ days.

[LithiaWx]

28 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

If it misses Cuba and Miami it's a huge bust for the euro. It already looks like a Cuba miss.

you could say that unless Irma hits Mid NC or north then it was a huge bust too.  Dunkman posted a great graph last night that shows the Euro has handled Irma the best from the jump.  If Irma misses Cuba it doesn't mean the Euro was not the best model by far with the track.  I also don't think she will hit Cuba directly but I think a close pass of 25-30 miles to MIA vs a LF at MIA doesn't change the Euro's accuracy compared to the other globals.

 

 

 

[Taylorsweather]

6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I may end up attempting to get into Savannah/Sullivans Island (slightly inland) on Saturday evening if the storm is still looking like a cat 2-3 hit on the coast.  I've said for years I'd chase if the situation was right and this may be the one.  

 

I've seen the hurricane gates on the way down I-16 may times, but never seen them down and closed.  I'm sure that getting in may be difficult to impossible if they reverse the lanes headed out of SAV into Macon.  That would mean having to take some smaller highways on down which is doable but going to add a while to the trip that's already 3-4 hours.  

 

I'd be very surprised if the police and/or fire police don't have all roads blocked heading East sometime Saturday.

[StormyClearweather]

Well the NAM is definitely a bit south of its 6Z run thus far. Actually looks pretty close to the ECMWF through 36. I don't know if that's good or bad for the EURO.

[downeastnc]

Irma taking a nice NW wobble right now if she doesnt wobble back to the left here soon she will miss her next NHC plot by a good 30-40 miles....maybe more even...the motion she has right now would take her north of the Turks and Caico. She has been right of track since the NW turn east of Puerto Rico....which is more in line with the ensembles that miss Florida and head further north....if you notice every time the NHC has updated their plots on the floaters they put their track down the next plot is always NW then they go back to WNW....not sure what if any impact this will have later but you would think it supports to more N track.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Irma looks to be weakening.

[sctvman]

If I had money for every student complaining that the local colleges like CofC aren't doing any precautions right at this moment, I'd be a rich man right now. CSU is about the only closing announced in the entire Charleston area right now.

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Irma looks to be weakening.

Wonder if that's Hispaniola interaction, ERC, or just because she's old and tired.

[downeastnc]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Irma looks to be weakening.

Yeah has a massive outer eyewall and they are finding surface winds only 115 knts on the SE side....could be about to try a ERC but with that outer eyewall its liable to really knock her down for awhile..