Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hour 123 looks like it is right on top of Myrtle beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Geez this is totally different, pretty much the models are useless right now....at least the eastern shift in guidance is coming into play...so SC/NC border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Still moving North at 120 looks like NC/SC border landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This run is definitely east of 18z.. landfall gonna be further north..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 At 126 center of Circulation is totally on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Landfall close to Myrtle Beach at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Hour 123 looks like it is right on top of Myrtle beach. Climo/ historyrun right there. Floyd repeat stall right off Florida blowing kisses then straight nc/sc border. And there's more examples besides Floyd path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Landfall looks to be myrtle Beach or south of ilmSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Geez this is totally different, pretty much the models are useless right now....at least the eastern shift in guidance is coming into play...so SC/NC border? It's one run. I would caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That run was not good for northern sc, SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That trough swinging through the NE hangs back noticably longer compared to 12Z and last nights 00Z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 It comes in right over Myrtle Beach looks to be headed for RDU I bet...pressure a more believable 930 mb as well...and thats probably low still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, NCSNOW said: Climo/ historyrun right there. Floyd repeat stall right off Florida blowing kisses then straight nc/sc border. And there's more examples besides Floyd path Yep, could be onto something. At this point anything goes. I still feel we will some some back and forth shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Unbelievable that the GFS initialized at 967 mb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Runs right through NC. The Euro will be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It's one run. I would caution I agree. However, the words "landfall at the SC/NC border" have been uttered quite a few times this week. the model goes away but always seems to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Unbelievable that the GFS initialized at 967 mb lol It has issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Bad, bad scenario for Myrtle Beach up through Topsail Beach on that run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jburns said: I agree. However, the words "landfall at the SC/NC border" have been uttered quite a few times this week. the model goes away but always seems to come back. We stick out like a sore thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It's one run. I would caution One run what? The models have not ran any kind of consistency at all the last few days they have been all over the place...trust me I am plenty cautious. However there really is no support for any other outcome being more likely than this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 What's the crazy uncle say. He in same neighborhood at 84 and 90 as nam and gfs. That turn makes all the difference in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That high in the lake has been trending stronger and slower to exit.. it's at 1030 and you can see a CAD signature before the storm hitsSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like CMC agrees with the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Looks like CMC agrees with the GFS! Way west of 12z run. Interesting that CMC comes west and GFS goes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, jburns said: I agree. However, the words "landfall at the SC/NC border" have been uttered quite a few times this week. the model goes away but always seems to come back. Yeah it sure looked pretty much textbook SC/NC landfall with a touch of Fran in there bending it back left some.....that bad for NC but not as bad as the center actually coming in over Cape Fear....also its a middle of the night hit so boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That's a hard left turn once it hits Myrtle Beach NW back into the Triad area where the storm gets captured and yanked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I read UKMet is way west actually gets into the Gulf and hits on the SW coast of Fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Raleigh would get mauled on gfs. Fact gfs is prob cat 4 at landfall just south of mrytle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Twitter folks are whining that the GFS is junk AGAIN because the pressures don't match up. Gahhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: That's a hard left turn once it hits Myrtle Beach NW back into the Triad area where the storm gets captured and yanked in. Probably a bit over done since the more north motion continues the next frame, my guess is it would be closer to going right up I95 or close to it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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