78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It looks like Irma has begun that sw movement. It will be interesting to see how far south it gets before turning back toward the w and wnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Very well may. I'm not sure what your fascination is with me, but the next time a tropical system passes bodily over the cape verde islands, I will favor an out to sea scenario once again (95% likelihood). Anyone using anything other than climo/probability forecasting at 13 days lead time is an idiot. You are calling for an out to sea scenario 9-10 days out Not every pattern is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You are calling for an out to sea scenario 9-10 days out Not every pattern is the same. I stated the fact that 95% of the systems that crossed the CV islands to not strike land, and indicated that I favored that. Not all patterns are the same, but 95% of the patterns yielded a system that did not impact the US in that scenario. The fact that we are still over a week out and you are critiquing that is perhaps the most laughable element of all. Stop posting garbage and bring something of value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EURO is trending towards it. Not really, as per the last 2 op runs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090100&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=135.3333282470703 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=173.3333282470703 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Not really, as per the last 2 op runs. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090100&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=135.3333282470703 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090112&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=173.3333282470703 Sorry, typo...I meant its trending towards the EURO. Brain cramp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right because there's never been one higher than category 2 at that latitude Very hard to get a major at this lat, John, SST have already started dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: I was only 8 years old when Hurricane Carol hit in 1954, but I remember it well living at the time in the Roslindale section of Boston. It was a strong Cat 2 when it hit and winds did reach sustained levels of 80-110 mph with gusts to 125 across E MA. At the time, I guess it was the costliest hurricane in history, surpassing the 1938 hurricane. I remember my aunt hiding in a closet from the high winds, thunder and lightning, to say nothing of all the big tree branches coming down. It was worse in RI after it hit in Groton, CT at 956 mb. Those years in the 1950's seemed like NE was hurricane central. You really don't want to see what the devastation would be like if we were hit by a strong Cat 3. BTW, the potential track of Irma could be very similar to that of Carol. The 1950s were amazing for hurricanes- actually the entire period from 1938-1960 going right from 1938, 1944, the 50s, and ending with Donna in 1960! Didn't NE have three hurricane strikes in a single year in 1954? The 50s also happened to be great for big March snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I stated the fact that 95% of the systems that crossed the CV islands to not strike land, and indicated that I favored that. Not all patterns are the same, but 95% of the patterns yielded a system that did not impact the US in that scenario. The fact that we are still over a week out and you are critiquing that is perhaps the most laughable element of all. Stop posting garbage and bring something of value. He's like what I was back in 1995 when there were all these CV systems swimming around in the Atlantic and I was certain a few of them would make landfall. Absolutely 0 of them did! The year of the 70W wall. What a tease that season was. Biggest tease was Felix which was the first Cat 4 in a long time and just looped around about 200 miles east of NC. That was the year I learned my lesson not to expect anything and be extremely surprised if anything did happen, no matter how active the season was (actually the more active seasons tend to have less landfalls up here- most of them are GOM seasons.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6z gfs takes it just SW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Seems goalposts are narrowing with Gulf/most of FL and OTS not really good options..and Carolinas to Nova Scotia the posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro ensemble mean looks like a hard right from Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS also brings Jose(I think) close to ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hugo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Euro ensemble mean looks like a hard right from Hatteras. OTS is definitely still in the game http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: OTS is definitely still in the game http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/abrammer/maps/genesis/ Yes it is, I think we are moving further away from a LF some where in the Gulf of Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I would be perfectly happy just to get some epic surf. I want a Bill redux. That's a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: No No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: No? Meaning OTS is not really an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's an option. It's just too early to determine whether it's the most likely one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: I would be perfectly happy just to get some epic surf. I want a Bill redux. That's a win in my book. yes, great week this week, odds are better for OTS per the superior EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Now it's superior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Paragon said: Very hard to get a major at this lat, John, SST have already started dropping. well, then say that .. i mean obviously it's hard to get that done - but one thing to consider... you don't need a Category 4 hurricane to sustain category 4 winds .. certainly concerning gusts. Cat 2 'canes translating along at 30+ mph of displacement motion (not talking the wind) ... as you know that becomes simple vector addition ..the polarward velocity side of the storm gets the benefit of that forward momentum added to the wind speed. suddenly 100 mph is 130 mph ...etc etc.. anyway, that earlier image that sparked this immediate dialogue offered plenty of wiggle room in that regard and focussing on exact categorical numbers is kinda not such a hot idea for our types of run-ins with these tempests. I get what you are saying on the outside of these concepts though. We have a lot of crap to over-come to allow TCs their max up our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Now it's superior?Sarcasm... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 hours ago, 78Blizzard said: It looks like Irma has begun that sw movement. It will be interesting to see how far south it gets before turning back toward the w and wnw. I see that now more so than 7 hours ago when this post was made ...but yeah. It's losing small bits of latitude per frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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