wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The bottom line that I have to keep reminding myself is that we are looking at a position 10 days from now. Where the Euro shows it at is not where it will end up. A jump from SC to southeast of the benchmark! So much time and so much interaction between troughs, Atlantic high pressure and how far SW Irma will get in the next day or two. I wish I could get myself to turn off the computer for a weeka and turn it back on. I should focus of rain chances this week. My pond is almost empty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'd concentrate on the day 3-5 positions and associated upper air features for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Nah... It's like the GS Warriors playing a combination team comprised of the nets, knicks and lakers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS may or may not back the operational version.. However, the operational version has zippo continuity between 00z and the 12z runs, wrt to the most important aspect of all ... the circulation medium everywhere from lower Manitoba across southern Canada, to the region S of NS, prior to then during the arrival of Irma. As a result, the 00z solution brings inland SC, where this one ... good luck, that looks like it'll destined to a stall actually somewhere between the Delmarva and Cape Cod... But, call those clear and presently indicated reasons to doubt either solution as "rationalization" all you want - it all just strikes me as the same old spraying solutions beyond D 5 typical uncertainty bullschyte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: EPS may or may not back the operational version.. However, the operational version has zippo continuity between 00z and the 12z runs, wrt to the most important aspect of all ... the circulation medium everywhere from lower Manitoba across southern Canada, to the region S of NS, prior to then during the arrival of Irma. As a result, the 00z solution brings inland SC, where this one ... good luck, that looks like it'll destined to a stall actually somewhere between the Delmarva and Cape Cod... But, call those clear and presently indicated reasons to doubt either solution as "rationalization" all you want - it all just strikes me as the same old spraying solutions beyond D 5 typical uncertainty . Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: teh haha... every time I see that TABD ensemble, at a glance it looks like To Be Announced... Well - in way yeah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 (returns plywood to lowes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That run is a personal attack on storm enthusiasts - hahahaa... that's a 'na na na-na na' run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 EPS following suit it would seem. If it ends up this way, I look forward to Snow88 getting trolled by Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Snow88 said: No? The 12z Euro illustrates quite nicely why you are a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS following suit it would seem. If it ends up this way, I look forward to Snow88 getting trolled by Ray. 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The 12z Euro illustrates quite nicely why you are a fool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS following suit it would seem. If it ends up this way, I look forward to Snow88 getting trolled by Ray. I mean, anyone with a shred of common sense would not crucify someone for initially favoring OTS at day 10+, when 95% of the systems from that point of origin have gone....OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It may very well still hit, too....but if the 00z run stands pat, I'll back off. The EPS are ust about all OTS, I heard...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: EPS following suit it would seem. If it ends up this way, I look forward to Snow88 getting trolled by Ray. Dude. We coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It may very well still hit, too....but if the 00z run stands pat, I'll back off. The EPS ARE just about all IT'S, I hard...? There is a good cluster hitting the Carolinas, but also a very big cluster wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Tropical enthusiasts have the toughest go of it out of all weather fans. I mean, really ... you almost think you'd have better luck with tornado chasing over this kill-joy crushing pass-time. It's certainly not for the faint of heart, or the easily provoked ... And, well, that's probably the source right there, for why tropical forum threads tend to evolve quickly toward hostility. One gets a couple few model cycles that are seemingly well behaved, and well in suit with whatever result that given user wants to see. Then, soon enough it is proven (yet again, but never sinks in..) that any perceived 'order' in the chaos was but a mere fractal. It's a catch-22. Gotta do it the whole way, because knowing it is out there at all ...ultimately, saves lives. Part of the problem with recent Houston is that denizens of the region had what 36 hours to know watergeddon was coming. That's prooobably not really enough time to fully have people on their toes... Certainly not in a region that long eschewed any belief that environmental sciences really pertain to them - excuse the politics. So, if Irma were to evolve into a strike along the East Coast somewhere, no one in that region, most in that region will have the benefit of a cone-down honing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Dude. We coming. Odds are always against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Dude. We coming. Its Carolinas/mid atl, or go fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It may very well still hit, too....but if the 00z run stands pat, I'll back off. The EPS are ust about all OTS, I heard...? 15-20 are way OTS, 15 or so are a scare then OTS and about 10-12 are hits but all hits are way south for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It may very well still hit, too....but if the 00z run stands pat, I'll back off. The EPS are ust about all OTS, I heard...? No. Theres more members west than 00z. Tons of spread though. Also a relative lack of landfalls north of virginia beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thanks, Nick...you've been very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Lots of spiking after one euro runSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That run of the euro is dangerously close to putting Irma in my backyard. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: That run of the euro is dangerously close to putting Irma in my backyard. Damn. Everyone is in play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I guess we can extend the goalposts to include the Flemish cap...lol. Sooo much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think the biggest wildcard is if it moves more south than expected the next 2 days which almost always seems to happen when a tropical system takes on a component south of west. Rarely does it not end up more south than guidance had 2-3 days in advance. That will throw a monkey wrench into the entire downstream forecast for sure if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's an artifact of probabilities folks... that's all you're really seeing. The New England region (if that's your bag) is but a tiny province in the grand scheme of potential track encounters - obviously... That means that very few tracks will actually be drawn through that tiny province - hello? That follows logically. The whole process of then assigning synoptic this and that, model verification whatever ...as reasons to slight other's "hopes" and/or go out on angry flame crusades .. it is a hind-sight-20/20 ..It's just that the hind part of that citing is happening almost instantly upon seeing that run. Heh. Everyone in here wants the excitement to come home. ...most probably. Some are honest and optimistic, though unrealistically.. Others are wantonly pessimistic. It's interesting when those two polar opposites come together - like a matter anti-matter explosion. haha. nice. I like that. Those that are heavy handed-ly thumping on those that post the optimism in that regard are really just being defensive for them selves, using that other person as a target. Where as the optimists ...they tend to be the biggest whiners when things don't work out. This hobby is less about weather an intellectual curiosity ... that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the biggest wildcard is if it moves more south than expected the next 2 days which almost always seems to happen when a tropical system takes on a component south of west. Rarely does it not end up more south than guidance had 2-3 days in advance. That will throw a monkey wrench into the entire downstream forecast for sure if it happens good point here. that whole sag in the track guidance out there is unusual. In fact, I recall having posted about that philosophy just yesterday or the day before in here, how it really seems the destiny of Irma is increasingly prone to error until it unfolds beyond that 'sagging' ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wouldn't be a thread without Dr Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Lots of spiking after one euro run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Exactly. Massive change for one op run. We are still 8-9 days away from any potential recurving. The Euro op is all alone among the major globals with that run. I'll bet the 00z is way west of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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