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40/70 Benchmark

Tropical Season 2017

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4 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

If this were to hit as a Cat 2 or 3 launching a direct hit on Destin/Fort Walton/Panama City it would cause a lot more lasting damage than Irma.

I know Steve is going to beat my head in, but Irma wasn't anything too devastating for any single area of FL....it just provided minor-moderate damage over such a wide envelope that it was still very costly.

Akin to a forecast KU that didn't phase right, and gave all of the northeast 6-12", as opposed to clocking sne with a focused 1-3', as forecast.

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5 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

If this were to hit as a Cat 2 or 3 launching a direct hit on Destin/Fort Walton/Panama City it would cause a lot more lasting damage than Irma.

I could see an Opal like deal....it is likely going to be weakening at LF, too, but the one caveat being that this may be getting steered to the NE by a ridge, as opposed to interacting with a tough....so it may not "collapse"...dry air entrainment from the continent should ensure that a cat 3 is the upped bounds for LF intensity.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know Steve is going to beat my head in, but Irma wasn't anything too devastating for any single area of FL....it just provided minor-moderate damage over such a wide envelope that it was still very costly.

Outside of the immediate Naples/Marco Island areas and the lowly populated, low income Middle Keys minor damage is the legacy of Irma in Florida.  Katrina and Wilma were much worse in the 6th NYC boros of SE Florida.  If Nate pans out the tv images will be much more dramatic with half the amount of tv crews camping out along the redneck Riviera which is probably the nicest stretch of beach in America.

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4 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Outside of the immediate Naples/Marco Island areas and the lowly populated, low income Middle Keys minor damage is the legacy of Irma in Florida.  Katrina and Wilma were much worse in the 6th NYC boros of SE Florida.  If Nate pans out the tv images will be much more dramatic with half the amount of tv crews camping out along the redneck Riviera which is probably the nicest stretch of beach in America.

I know some people had their lives impacted in a huge way, but the US dodged the bullet with Irma as far as I'm concerned.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know some people had their lives impacted in a huge way, but the US dodged the bullet with Irma as far as I'm concerned.

I believe we are long overdue to have a major hurricane with CAT 3+ winds strike a major population center.  New Orleans barely gusted to CAT 2 in Katrina, Wilma had CAT 2 gusts in MIA, PBI, and FLL, Charleston only gusted to CAT 2 in Hugo, and I don't believe downtown Miami gusted much above 100 in Andrew.

I just wish we had hit the trifecta and dodged the same bullets we dodged with Matthew and Irma, and dodged the worst bullet of them all on November 8th 2016.

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8 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

I believe we are long overdue to have a major hurricane with CAT 3+ winds strike a major population center.  New Orleans barely gusted to CAT 2 in Katrina, Wilma had CAT 2 gusts in MIA, PBI, and FLL, Charleston only gusted to CAT 2 in Hugo, and I don't believe downtown Miami gusted much above 100 in Andrew.

I just wish we had hit the trifecta and dodged the same bullets we dodged with Matthew and Irma, and dodged the worst bullet of them all on November 8th 2016.

This is the thing....there are obviously a plethora of other impacts associated with a hurricane, so many people get defensive when its pointed out that it could have been much worse. But its the truth...it doesn't mean you are marginalizing those who were severely affected.

As bad as these storms were, none of them have dealt a blow the magnitude of what will happen eventually.

The levee breaking was an externality of Katrina...if that didn't give, the system would have been destructive, but not catastrophic for NO.

The surge to the east was still catastrophic because that had already been generated prior to the collapse.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the thing....there are obviously a plethora of other impacts associated with a hurricane, so many people get defensive when its pointed out that it could have been much worse. But its the truth...it doesn't mean you are marginalizing those who were severely affected.

As bad as these storms were, none of them have dealt a blow that magnitude of what will happen eventually.

The levee breaking was an externality of Katrina...if that didn't give, the system would have destructive, but not catastrophic for NO.

The surge to the east was still catastrophic because that had already been generated prior to the collapse.

I drove from Pensacola west to NOLA several weeks post Katrina.  Most of the damage I encountered in Pensacola was from Ivan.  But as I was driing west if I wasn't specifically seeking out hurricane damage I barely would've known a hurricane had just hit until I reached about 10 miles west of Mobile.  And as soon as I hit Pascagoula you could tell how bad it was and it was increasingly nuclear as I hit Gulfport and Biloxi, and ten miles west of the casinos the damage was as bad as the damage I saw in south dade after Andrew.  Once I reached NOLA the damage was underwhelming compared to what I had seen in MS.

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55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the thing....there are obviously a plethora of other impacts associated with a hurricane, so many people get defensive when its pointed out that it could have been much worse. But its the truth...it doesn't mean you are marginalizing those who were severely affected.

As bad as these storms were, none of them have dealt a blow the magnitude of what will happen eventually.

The levee breaking was an externality of Katrina...if that didn't give, the system would have been destructive, but not catastrophic for NO.

The surge to the east was still catastrophic because that had already been generated prior to the collapse.

That occurrence probably multiplied the deaths from Katrina by 10X, maybe 20.

I don't believe downtown Miami gusted much above 100 in Andrew.

And perhaps 10 miles to the south of downtown, Coral Gables recorded winds to 164 at the Nat. Hurricane Ctr, in the north eyewall.  Even Homestead, ground zero for damage, is less than 30 miles from MIA.

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1 hour ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

I drove from Pensacola west to NOLA several weeks post Katrina.  Most of the damage I encountered in Pensacola was from Ivan.  But as I was driing west if I wasn't specifically seeking out hurricane damage I barely would've known a hurricane had just hit until I reached about 10 miles west of Mobile.  And as soon as I hit Pascagoula you could tell how bad it was and it was increasingly nuclear as I hit Gulfport and Biloxi, and ten miles west of the casinos the damage was as bad as the damage I saw in south dade after Andrew.  Once I reached NOLA the damage was underwhelming compared to what I had seen in MS.

Even 10 years after Katrina, I saw a lot of scars when I went through MS on I-10 and into New Orleans for a conference two winters ago. Going by a Six Flags roller coaster rising over trees, knowing that it hasn't been used since the day they closed to prepare for Katrina, was really spooky. Lot of empty lots, too.

13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

12Z coming in much stronger with Nate.  Hits the Florida panhandle as a 965mb hurricane.

Very interesting trend. I'm guessing Euro isn't seeing the shear on level of GFS?

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The whole Euro run is now in.   Actually this looks like a  impressive storm for New England.  After the Florida 965mb hit the Euro takes the storm very quickly right up the Appalachians.  From the W VA panhandle to just west of Albany and then northeast bound.  Looks like it meets the energy coming in from the west so it maintains quite a bit of strength.  About 982mb as it passes Albany.  General 4-6" of rain to the west of the path and some major  wind in New England.  I don't know how accurate the weatherbell's Euro gust maps are but it is showing lots  of 50-65mph wind in New England. Fast forward movement and being on the east side of the track is how we get our big winds.

These setups can have much more impact than a slowly moving rotting hurricane like Jose coming up to our SE.  If this run of the Euro came to fruition it has much more potential to give a large area of New England quite a hit, much more than a Jose type path...  

This one has my interest....

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know Steve is going to beat my head in, but Irma wasn't anything too devastating for any single area of FL....it just provided minor-moderate damage over such a wide envelope that it was still very costly.

Akin to a forecast KU that didn't phase right, and gave all of the northeast 6-12", as opposed to clocking sne with a focused 1-3', as forecast.

No I agree 100% with you, minus King Pine Key

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see an Opal like deal....it is likely going to be weakening at LF, too, but the one caveat being that this may be getting steered to the NE by a ridge, as opposed to interacting with a tough....so it may not "collapse"...dry air entrainment from the continent should ensure that a cat 3 is the upped bounds for LF intensity.

Arse chewed off the backside? halfacane?

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

It is Opalesque.   I urge you to remember what year Opal occurred in and the winter that followed.

As far as hurricanes go Opal was a bit underwhelming in terms of impact, however,  in reference to the following winter, I was living in Arlington Heights and the winter was one of the best of my life.  100"+

I'm not convinced this storm doesn't hook further left. 

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the thing....there are obviously a plethora of other impacts associated with a hurricane, so many people get defensive when its pointed out that it could have been much worse. But its the truth...it doesn't mean you are marginalizing those who were severely affected.

As bad as these storms were, none of them have dealt a blow the magnitude of what will happen eventually.

The levee breaking was an externality of Katrina...if that didn't give, the system would have been destructive, but not catastrophic for NO.

The surge to the east was still catastrophic because that had already been generated prior to the collapse.

I mean we really ended up being right for the wrong reasons. That famous hurricane statement from LIX would have looked absurd in the Monday morning QBing if the levee hadn't then dominated the headlines following. In the end I think we learned important lessons that we need to stop emphasizing the wind so much and focus on the water more (surge and inland flooding).

In the end the reported hurricane intensity is just the maximum sustained wind, and something unlikely to be experienced by anyone in the hurricane path really. It's a small portion of the eyewall, usually only seen over water, and any single point along the coast has very low chances of seeing that wind. That's why we haven't seen it in major cities. It will happen someday I'm sure, but it's still pretty long odds.

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