Tropical Season 2017

[Typhoon Tip]

The only thing that seems of higher order confidence forecasting .. is that we will continue to read-in a steady diet of Mets that consider every possibility EXCEPT any that would bring any particular user/contributor/enthusiast/ ..or other, a sense of joy and fun from what ever is going to happen with this thing...

I'd put that at about 90% chance of 'eroding significance' ... for the purpose of attempting to control other's optimism, even if it takes engineering reasons that are difficult to dispute. 

Ha.. .But, they are easy reasons.  Anyone sane knows that the odds of any one location getting this thing are remote - that's the nature of the tapestry of tropics.  You're not saying anything that's going to make one stand out as particularly keen-full of insight, when the end results will more likely make one right by pure circumstance of the numbers alone.

We get it!  It's likely to do .... whatever it takes NOT to give James and Ray and Kevin their relative hard-ons.  Jesus.

[Ginx snewx]

Maue is with weather.us. Those free Euro maps by Joerge are awesome. Maue should enhance options

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maue is with weather.us. Those free Euro maps by Joerge are awesome. Maue should enhance options

Start with counting sleet as snow on their graphics to get weenies to post all over social media.

[Typhoon Tip]

..egh... having said that, I still feel that every option is on the table.

However, if pistols were demanding sentiments, I'd hedge that the looping idea is more important for existing rather than expectations for that exactly happening.

What that means is that there is something about the pattern the models are keying in on that is halting the polar-ward movement nearing the 40th parallel or thereabouts; the models are seeing that inhibition. 

What that is may or may not be easily identifiable in the synoptic handling..but, the behavior of the latter between Montana and NS really should be the focus more so than Jose its self, in trying to gain an understanding of where Jose will go.

Right now, the ridge seems to break right over the top of Jose around 70 W give or take...that really seems (to me) to be why the runs put on the breaks roughly 69W/40N... The loop makes sense in a purely hydrostatic sense of it? Because, as that ridge node lops over top ...the counter-forcing points back toward NJ; the Euro seems to follow ... Other runs hinting as such too; the Euro isn't the only looper as of late up S of LI like that.  If said ridge is slightly less massive...all those exertions modulate differently, and then the back out to sea solution probably come right back.  That's just my less important opinion -

Having said that ...Jerry's spot on to mention the SSTs... I wrote about that extensively yesterday... They are if anything slightly cooler than normal; besides, even when they may be "warmer" than normal, the thermocline up in those shelf regions do not contain much IOH so what are we talking about there... But, more importantly... Jose is not moving fast enough. Here is a reason that virtually all (if not all) hurricanes that affect regions N of the Va. Capes are moving fast: It is a matter of rate of decay being slower than the translation timing of the cyclone.  A category 3 hurricane accelerating N to 30+ mph, from an initial position around Cape Hatteras will 'stay intact' as it fists into LI ... Whereas that same hurricane moving slower spends more time over the cold water and...there you go... That's why within day and half of the Euro's stall it almost is completely absorbed into the surrounding PP like that.  

Just something to consider... It's probably pointless though? I mean, NHC can't really come on the public stage and say, "the shelf waters being cold and Jose moving slower than normal should protect us all," now can they- haha.  Imagine that. wow.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Start with counting sleet as snow on their graphics to get weenies to post all over social media.

Ok Forky thanks for the infor. SMJW and their politics lol. I just love his use of maps., sorry. Even Levi did that. 

[Ginx snewx]

NHC already mentioned shear and cold waters Tip. The SST issue was discussed here 3 days ago with maps included. What's missing is baroclinic ET enhancement this time, everything wicked stays East although the Euro, an outlier amongst all its ENS members, has a strong LLJ on its west side. Definitely not over but odds are low for big winds inland

[South Shore Slop]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/home-garden-articles/earth-you/remembering-the-perfect-storm/618195

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

Just to add Ray, he’s not the only poster on this board that post “egregiously incorrect posts” and yet those are let to post away. Treatment should be equal not matter how senior a poster may be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sorry, Raul.....I think the larger issues is that whomever else you are alluding to is getting away with it.

I'd call them out if I caught it-

As for James......I don't know what to tell you, but the inane pots get on people's nerves during active periods...he has been here a few years, so I'm not sure why there isn't a learning curve there....or at least he should be more receptive to instructional feedback.

Zero excuse for that and he's going to continue to catch hell for it, and rightfully so-

[ineedsnow]

Nam looking good at 12z

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I would wait to see what today brings instead of knee jerking to the NAM and a couple of globals that hit the sauce last night.

The most significant impact that Jose will have is potentially providing a pathway for Maria to bend seaward.

[ineedsnow]

Its the nam but thats alot of rain and wind for SNE...

[bobbutts]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really -

Not to be a confrontational.. but a couple facets make me wonder if that would be entirely fair:

1  ...  forecast error is well advertised ... some tools are worse than others, but 200 to 350 mi by 120 hours. Much, if any impact at all outside of long-shore swells permeating way out  from 00z's initialization of Jose...wouldn't be felt until ~ 90 hours?  But more importantly, the perceived center of the cyclone wouldn't be nearing those latitude/longitudes until 96+ hours.  That puts the forecast error responsibly outside of fault.  There is (related) also a reason the old mantra of not focusing on the eye of the cyclone, works. 

2  ...  their hashed "cone of uncertainty" as it is called does in fact encompass regions as far W as CT to central MA up through SE Maine...  I think these 'bump NW' solution fit into that..

..I get why you are saying that, though?  These facets may be correct, but the public is touchy with this sort of thing .. and it's at best an unpleasant PR minefield trying to negotiate explanation courses around a track that verified a destroyed harbor, when their "official" track guidance' may not have been anywhere near said harbor.. 

That's the unsavory position... Those that were not directly affected ...will begin to eventually see the intellect/logic of it and agree that it's not NHC's fault... However, those that really do suffer any monetary losses due to the storm?  Forget it!  They will elide those principles of reasoning in order to justify exacting a liability revenge. 

We haven't lived in a culture that exactly embraces and accepts personal culpability in any breath it takes ... since... I dunno, the boon time of Lawyers began circa 1970s and 1980s.. I think it's related to relative affluence of the society as a whole.. Wild digression for a moment, but despite any poverty, travails or perceived iniquities amid our echelons being no different than any other industrialized societies of the world, ours are, fairly,  categorize-able as having less of those... We've lived in relative/comparable success, ease and comforts ...for many decades ...really since WWII. Despite any recession ...despite this and that... we have by and large emerged to dust off and never really be worse for the wear. That's provides a culture that leads to unilateral senses of entitlement - "affluenza" occurring in everyone, not just in a particularly egregious examples in a court room in Texas. And the first thing that people of privilege do when faced with the reality of something they hate?  Blame other people

 

 

You are describing the cone from 2 days ago:

The most recent cone only includes SE Cape/Islands:

 

 

[wxeyeNH]

NAM is not a tropical model but I guess we could use it for a trend?   Brings Irma to just north of Nantucket and ENE to Chatham. This is a bit further NW of its last run...  At least that would get a rain band up to me. 

It's a lock!

Edit  Haven't looked yet at the 11am but I am going to guess the cone will come west slightly up this way?!?

Edit Edit   Cone shifts NW about 20 miles to catch the CC Canal area...

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

NAM is not a tropical model but I guess we could use it for a trend?   Brings Irma to just north of Nantucket and ENE to Chatham. This is a bit further NW of its last run...  At least that would get a rain band up to me. 

It's a lock!

Edit  Haven't looked yet at the 11am but I am going to guess the cone will come west slightly up this way?!?

 

Not likely.  Nhc won't bite on this until the hurricane models make a marked shift west 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

You are describing the cone from 2 days ago:

The most recent cone only includes SE Cape/Islands:

 

 

Okay...so they did update that: but, it really doesn't matter so much, per se -

the point's are still valid. It says right on that product, "...Hazardous conditions can still exist outside of this cone.." 

A fair and objective comprehension of that is akin to "In OR AROUND the watch area" ?  It's not like a hands up free pass to dink around with it and then sue because one got popped for one's negligence.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Its the nam but thats alot of rain and wind for SNE...

EE rule

[CT Rain]

FWIW the UKMet is very Euro-like with a stall off of Long Island. I wouldn't be surprised if we wind up with a western shift in guidance today. 

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM doesn't seem as insanely left as the NAM and it's slightly slower as well.  Im still not sure how the hurricane models can be so diffeeent.  One of these groups is going to bust severely on this 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

FWIW the UKMet is very Euro-like with a stall off of Long Island. I wouldn't be surprised if we wind up with a western shift in guidance today. 

I think the UK tails off to the SW, and the EURO to the SE....but very similar, yea.

[weathafella]

6 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

People were a little rough on him and there was no reason for that’s all I was saying.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you meant me I disagree.  I pointed out that he was good at looking like an idiot which his post illustrated.   We're not kids, we don't have to give anyone a pass.  I specifically stated that he may be a nice fellow but wishing and hoping and posting bs isn't gonna cut it.  Kev gets plenty of bs for doing it but in nearly all cases he's trolling and he doesn't start crying when people give him crap.  He tore into ray and told him his forecasts in general suck if you remember.   What got me going was likening Maria to a major cane in its aftermath state yesterday.   

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If you meant me I disagree.  I pointed out that he was good at looking like an idiot which his post illustrated.   We're not kids, we don't have to give anyone a pass.  I specifically stated that he may be a nice fellow but wishing and hoping and posting bs isn't gonna cut it.  Kev gets plenty of bs for doing it but in nearly all cases he's trolling and he doesn't start crying when people give him crap.  He tore into ray and told him his forecasts in general suck if you remember.   What got me going was likening Maria to a major cane in its aftermath state yesterday.   

 

 

 That one must have been deleted before I saw it.

Regardless, the difference is that I learn from the terrible forecasts that I make.

[Typhoon Tip]

anyway ... hopefully that's the last of the combative/adversarial stuff...

as is and has always been the case... if you don't like a posters tenor, don't read their post(s) - .. in fact, built right into the functionality of this social media's offerings is the ability to 'block' a poster.  wow!

Hey, does anyone have any specific bias infor and/or experience working with these speciated NAM runs...like the "3KM NAM" ?   I'm asking because that run shift west by a larger margin frankly, and has a sub-960 entity about 40 Mi east of Cape May NJ at 60 hours (actually.. make that 80 or so Mi).  It's also widened the circulation envelope considerably...

In addition, it and it's brothers the 12 and 32 KM ...all threat a flood concern. .. just though I'd throw that out there. Even the Euro and UKMET solutions would suggest some sort of PRE should set up, ..even if the actual bands don't arc in -

[USCG RS]

anyway ... hopefully that's the last of the combative/adversarial stuff...

as is and has always been the case... if you don't like a posters tenor, don't read their post(s) - .. in fact, built right into the functionality of this social media's offerings is the ability to 'block' a poster.  wow!

Hey, does anyone have any specific bias infor and/or experience working with these speciated NAM runs...like the "3KM NAM" ?   I'm asking because that run shift west by a larger margin frankly, and has a sub-960 entity about 40 Mi east of Cape May NJ at 60 hours (actually.. make that 80 or so Mi).  It's also widened the circulation envelope considerably...

In addition, it and it's brothers the 12 and 32 KM ...all threat a flood concern. .. just though I'd throw that out there. Even the Euro and UKMET solutions would suggest some sort of PRE should set up, ..even if the actual bands don't arc in -

The 3km Nam is normally great for mesoscale events and mid latitude cyclones. As far as tropical, it's not the best, but this may be a different type of story given the complexities of this particular storm. All things considered, I would look at the trends of the 3km and take its intensity into account as well. If the 3k follows itself next run, I'll take it more seriously.

[CoastalWx]

12z GFS should be a bit NW I think of 00z and 6z. Definitely faster than 6z.

[CoastalWx]

It looks like the trough SE of Hudson Bay is weaker, thus allowing more room for the western atlantic ridge to perhaps flex him NW a bit.

[CT Rain]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyway ... hopefully that's the last of the combative/adversarial stuff...

as is and has always been the case... if you don't like a posters tenor, don't read their post(s) - .. in fact, built right into the functionality of this social media's offerings is the ability to 'block' a poster.  wow!

Hey, does anyone have any specific bias infor and/or experience working with these speciated NAM runs...like the "3KM NAM" ?   I'm asking because that run shift west by a larger margin frankly, and has a sub-960 entity about 40 Mi east of Cape May NJ at 60 hours (actually.. make that 80 or so Mi).  It's also widened the circulation envelope considerably...

In addition, it and it's brothers the 12 and 32 KM ...all thread a massive flood concern. .. just though I'd throw that out there. Even the Euro and UKMET solutions would suggest some sort of PRE should set up, ..even if the actual bands don't arc in -

I don't see a PRE... as those are typically many hundreds of miles away from a TC and not related to the storm's actual circulation.

 

Still, a lopsided storm with rain well to the north with a bit of synoptic assist should be present. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z GFS should be a bit NW I think of 00z and 6z. Definitely faster than 6z.

Yes, looks well NW

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Yes, looks well NW

Yeah more and more with each frame. Maybe the Ukie and Euro weren't so far off?

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah more and more with each frame. Maybe the Ukie and Euro weren't so far off?

Yeah maybe not. That Hudson Bay s/w has always been key IMO. That's what beats up the W Atlantic ridge and provides the escape hatch. 

[jbenedet]

The other thing also worth noting is the ridging to his west has been trending weaker, so you really have seen both trends since 18z yesterday work in favor of a track closer to the coast.