NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's not going to pan out like that lol. Meteorology, not modelology The EPS disagrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pretty colors at 500 FTL 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's not going to pan out like that lol. Meteorology, not modelology Where are these posts in the winter!? I agree the worst case scenario often doesn't happen, just like it usually doesn't in the winter when it comes to long range progs. You might have the best shot of nice-ish weather...I have my doubts in the mountains of any nice weather with upper level trough overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: ..spin a wheel that is loaded with far more crappy days than nice days. You'll prob get a nice day or two but you'll end up with more crappy ones and maybe even a few horrendous ones. This is typical of early May weather in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The EPS disagrees Glad we don't live in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad we don't live in NJ lol. As if it looks worse for NJ than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Heaviest rain tomorrow now appears to be RI to the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: lol. As if it looks worse for NJ than here. He's running out of quips ... Eventually the reality of what's in store will be so force fed he'll be left utterly speechless... or at best left entirely without an audience. 18z GFS flat out forgets what season it is and mid Febs a snow storm - 300 hours... It's like the closer we get to the solstice the planet wants to more and more winter like. Muse aside it's getting ridiculous... I remember 2005 and it wasn't this cold..It was unrelenting in the models and verified, but not this cold. It's really challenging what's physically possible when in the absence of a actual sulfur dioxide parasol over the stratosphere - something bizarre is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: He's running out of quips ... Eventually the reality of what's in store will be so force fed he'll be left utterly speechless... or at best left entirely without an audience. 18z GFS flat out forgets what season it is and mid Febs a snow storm - 300 hours... It's like the closer we get to the solstice the planet wants to more and more winter like. Muse aside it's getting ridiculous... I remember 2005 and it wasn't this cold..It was unrelenting in the models and verified, but not this cold. It's really challenging what's physically possible when in the absence of a actual sulfur dioxide parasol over the stratosphere - something bizarre is going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 That 18z GFS run is insane. That is like half of the entire 16 day run spent below 0C at 850mb for a large part of the northeast. Not bad for May 18th....definitely way over-done but agree with Tip, this is pretty nuts to see an entire run so cold for May. Not just one shot and done, but like re-enforcing shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: after may 05 this happened: It was +.06 here meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 that's june through august. one of nyc's warmest summers on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 That was a humid end to summer. There was nothing cool about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That was a humid end to summer. There was nothing cool about it. yea August was hot but lets just ignore what he was trying to portray Boston June +0.6 July -.01 August +2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that's june through august. one of nyc's warmest summers on record thank my lucky stars every day we don't live there, wrong subforum again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 hotter just west of boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: hotter just west of boston 2006 maps , cmon up to 2017 they actually make surface maps with great resolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 What a wheel of misfortune as progged on the major guidance. Is there a way to see monthly suicide rates for Boston/etc? Personally, I am fine with it being cool and gray until mid June( for work purposes), but I'm not in control of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Pretty clear and evident "improvements" across the suite of operational guidance overnight - quoted improvement because there are some that covet the gloom.. As a complete break-down in the prior persistent theme, day 8 in both the operaitonal Euro and GFS are completely in a different universe comparatively. The closed trough/refill/retrograde and singular node of misery hell has bifurcated (interesting that both models agree) into two distinct centers: one is split and retrograde to almost the MV, while the east node is S of NS by that day. That places the area in a "col" (or faux one) ...where a nondescript PP has variable wind under nil forcing aloft. IF the region can dry out and even half sun, that turns out to be a hugely acceptable day for those that don't secretly covet gloom. In fact, something rather abruptly ...though perhaps subtly ...seems to have swept over the guidance complexions et al, and that is that the 850 mb temperatures are warmer everywhere compared to that four days worth of extended runs we've been commiserating over prior to last night's runs. That day 8 above is +3 to +8 C, and should the sun shine heat that column we pop to 70 F ... This synoptic interpretation - mind you - is when previous runs were threatening summer snowing (haha); certainly cold mist interminably - So that's all pretty significant change... Now, we could argue that the continuity break means it's all dubious ...and it may be. However, as kind of a base-line deterministic course of lesser regret, breaking continuity to go back toward climatology is probably not as bad as the other way around ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 You know ... ? back in the 1990s I can recall occasional passing statements in middle and extended range forecast discussions, or AFDs of local offices et al, that alluded to '...THE WINTER ALGORITHMS...' Yeah, all operational weather disseminations from NWS offices, right on up to NOAA head quarters, used to be cap-locked. The words also abbreviated, too. The culture seems to have changed over the decades and now everything is written plain ...most importantly, 'intelligible' text. Not, "...THE WNTR ALGRTHM.." Imagine a winter-storm AFD discussing slantwise potential voriticity advection and elevated frontogenic forcing ... Anyway, I wonder if that's still the case, cold -vs- warm season algorithms? I'm inclined to say no. The advances in working physics after years of perturbation/ensembles and regression analysis, combined with orders of magnitude improvements in computer crunching speeds and depth therein in ...et al, probably makes the modeling side of operational Meteorology closer to seamless between the seasons. But I remember pretty clearly back in the day, that it was about May 5th actually the winter algorithms were flipped to warm season - i wonder if something similar could have taken place because ... even though the pattern still looks like dung for spring and warm enthusiasts, the complexion of 850 mb cold appears alleviated somewhat out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 6z GFS actually looks alright, brings 70 degree weather back next weekend and 80 degree weather in the clown range (300 hours). Definitely better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Muse aside it's getting ridiculous... I remember 2005 and it wasn't this cold..It was unrelenting in the models and verified, but not this cold. It's really challenging what's physically possible when in the absence of a actual sulfur dioxide parasol over the stratosphere - something bizarre is going on here. True for this next week, but I sure hope it's not true for later in the month. May 22-26, 2005 at my place had highs of 48,48,47,47,49 with 5.14" RA. It's hard to imagine a worse 4th week of May - maybe 1967 (especially NYC environs) would challenge it for unseasonally cold yuck. However, June 25, 2005 is my most recent day with 90+. That month also featured the one and only severe TS to hit my current domicile, on the 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, tamarack said: True for this next week, but I sure hope it's not true for later in the month. May 22-26, 2005 at my place had highs of 48,48,47,47,49 with 5.14" RA. It's hard to imagine a worse 4th week of May - maybe 1967 (especially NYC environs) would challenge it for unseasonally cold yuck. However, June 25, 2005 is my most recent day with 90+. That month also featured the one and only severe TS to hit my current domicile, on the 12th. Yeah...those were the truly abysmal days of that incredible stretch of injustice to all that is good and decent - That's precisely how I remember it, too. I was in Acton and I remember specifically the days were 46 to 49 F, and the nights were like 39 or 40 ...so the total departures cheated/shirked us on how cold it "felt" too - pure evil. hahhaha. The models modulated things overnight since I mused that post though. I wrote about it very recently this morning. I haven't seen any 12z guidance but the duration (this time) appears split in this recent cycle, which is a far cry better than end-to-end misery for 20 days or whatever. Honestly...driving around mid day errands and I was thinking that if things work out that way, I'm actually on-board with solid soaking or two... Put the drought debate to bed but good - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 0 wetbulb is like 950mb at 96 hours on the 12z GFS...that's totally game for some flakage under the ULL...esp higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 And models have a substantial cold shot after mid month too. Wheel of 'Rhea hopefully can produce some interesting wx in the form of flakes for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Should there be preparations for power outages next week in SNE with snow on leaves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Could be a rare May flip to a -KWO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 KWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Should there be preparations for power outages next week in SNE with snow on leaves? I'm glad I came in here to see this. The timing is perfect for me to use a bit of a laugh after watching this health care debacle unfold. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: And models have a substantial cold shot after mid month too. Wheel of 'Rhea hopefully can produce some interesting wx in the form of flakes for some. "Wheel of 'rhea" is a great name for that ULL, lol. That thing is just putrid...we'd probably love it if it were 2 months ago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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