Model Mayhem VII

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll won't even go there until tmw night.

Watch this one, upper level trends have been deeper each run, has a Miller B look.

[OceanStWx]

So for the weekend the GFS puts the H5 low over BOS, while the Euro decides to take it to RIC. Pretty close.

[OceanStWx]

EPS definitely has the mean 500 mb low farther north than the op, which is good. There is also a cluster of members with surface lows near the Cape. So that tells me there is a background pattern in a good chunk of the members that is leading to a farther north system. 

Think of it as phase two of the sensitivity analysis. Cluster groups of ensemble members together, then figure out what pattern leads to those clusters. Then you can really figure out what a tweak to the western ridge, or deeper shortwave might do to the operational runs.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well. we do it all over again this weekend it appears.

Signals of another one middle of next week

[weathafella]

Furious rush to the finish this year.  Weekend system is not far from a 100 hour look alike.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Furious rush to the finish this year.  Weekend system is not far from a 100 hour look alike.

The Euro is really nice mid level magic type of evolution. It just happens too far east on this run.

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Furious rush to the finish this year.  Weekend system is not far from a 100 hour look alike.

It's coming for everyone. We've seen these time and time again.

[moneypitmike]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's coming for everyone. We've seen these time and time again.

methinks something for easterners this go'round when all is said and done--at least those who can stave off the rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS will play catchup yet again 

http://

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GFS will play catchup yet again 

I'd hit a 70/30 compromise.

[ineedsnow]

6z gfs was close

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd hit a 70/30 compromise.

I'd put the GYX CWA as the place to be for this one--at least at this point in time.  Unfortunately, I don't think I'm going to be there this weekend.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's coming for everyone. We've seen these time and time again.

Timeframe?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

The Euro is really nice mid level magic type of evolution. It just happens too far east on this run.

Yeah it looks like BOS actually might be in a good spot on the OP euro. But the meat looks just to the east. This one has some potential. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it looks like BOS actually might be in a good spot on the OP euro. But the meat looks just to the east. This one has some potential. 

Memory says very similar setup to identical weekend in 1956.

[Hoth]

I kind of like Ginx up to Ray for this one, assuming it pans out. Mostly glad to see there's something worth tracking. It's always rough after a big storm to see endless sunshine days on the modeling.

[Morch Madness]

UKIE would probably be decent as well

[moneypitmike]

This is the time of year that regardless of the temp, the sun will feel warm and the snows will still be melting on the roads.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Meh, my back door is still unhinged after the abuse it took, needs until friday to recover. 

We watch out the window into the backyard though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This is the time of year that regardless of the temp, the sun will feel warm and the snows will still be melting on the roads.

Just did the final cleanup from yesterday. Temp is now 14F but with no wind it was fine.

winter won't die, despite some struggles.   It looks like this weekend is SE SNE bound...TAN, Foxborough, Brockton type o deal 

[weathafella]

Lol...the short drive to work didn't unfreeze my windows so I couldn't get them to open-getting out of the car to activate gate for parking lot access ftl.

[Whineminster]

It'll trend west just like the past storm, you know this. 

[Zeus]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, my back door is still unhinged after the abuse it took, needs until friday to recover.

I recommend Gun Oil next time!

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just did the final cleanup from yesterday. Temp is now 14F but with no wind it was fine.

winter won't die, despite some struggles.   It looks like this weekend is SE SNE bound...TAN, Foxborough, Brockton type o deal 

Nope..it's for everyone. Pattern ripe for the NW move..as our eyes get bigger each successive run and it comes NW

[ROOSTA]

Baby it's cold. Wind-chills in the 30's. Liking the prospects of leaf catching, fertilizing over shoveling, salting.
I84 would have been a great chase route.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

EPS definitely has the mean 500 mb low farther north than the op, which is good. There is also a cluster of members with surface lows near the Cape. So that tells me there is a background pattern in a good chunk of the members that is leading to a farther north system. 

Think of it as phase two of the sensitivity analysis. Cluster groups of ensemble members together, then figure out what pattern leads to those clusters. Then you can really figure out what a tweak to the western ridge, or deeper shortwave might do to the operational runs.

I agree with you on the mid level evolution (500 H) in principle.

I'm a little skeptical about the lower baroclinic tapestry for that weekend thing. 

To schools with that: 

-- The diabatic tsunamis has kicked in; March is a big differential month for that.  We can get away with a fetid polar air mass much easier on March 1 than we can the same air mass being assaulted by daily hemispheric insolation uptake at the end of the month.  That's true in February and April, too...but, March has the greatest difference from D1 to 31... Anyway, obviously you know this but my point is, I could see a light/moderate varying intensity fall rates we end up with light rain and parachutes do to decent mid level power spinning over top a diffused lower level baroclinicity...   It's one reason why early April 500 mb evolutions can look so delicious but then you look at the attending surface charts and you only have vague closures and ho-hum drabby weather. It's a timing game... where the cold needs to be fresh. It "looks" like we may not have that for this next ordeal.

-- This system is also not benefiting from a southern stream moisture advection.  If the baroclinic gradients end up week... lacking moisture limit things.  Again ... favors chilly rain and 'chutes, .. elevations may do better though -

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I'd put the GYX CWA as the place to be for this one--at least at this point in time.  Unfortunately, I don't think I'm going to be there this weekend.

Fortunately I will

[Southshorewx]

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol...the short drive to work didn't unfreeze my windows so I couldn't get them to open-getting out of the car to activate gate for parking lot access ftl.

Mine defrosted just in time as I pulled in the parking lot. Haha. 

[moneypitmike]

29 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It'll trend west just like the past storm, you know this. 

Dude, the last one trended east.

 

[Cold Miser]

East...Will be SE Mass