Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll won't even go there until tmw night. Watch this one, upper level trends have been deeper each run, has a Miller B look. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2017 So for the weekend the GFS puts the H5 low over BOS, while the Euro decides to take it to RIC. Pretty close. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2017 EPS definitely has the mean 500 mb low farther north than the op, which is good. There is also a cluster of members with surface lows near the Cape. So that tells me there is a background pattern in a good chunk of the members that is leading to a farther north system. Think of it as phase two of the sensitivity analysis. Cluster groups of ensemble members together, then figure out what pattern leads to those clusters. Then you can really figure out what a tweak to the western ridge, or deeper shortwave might do to the operational runs. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2017 Well. we do it all over again this weekend it appears. Signals of another one middle of next week Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weathafella Posted March 15, 2017 Furious rush to the finish this year. Weekend system is not far from a 100 hour look alike. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Furious rush to the finish this year. Weekend system is not far from a 100 hour look alike. The Euro is really nice mid level magic type of evolution. It just happens too far east on this run. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2017 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Furious rush to the finish this year. Weekend system is not far from a 100 hour look alike. It's coming for everyone. We've seen these time and time again. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moneypitmike Posted March 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's coming for everyone. We've seen these time and time again. methinks something for easterners this go'round when all is said and done--at least those who can stave off the rain. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2017 GFS will play catchup yet again http:// Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OceanStWx Posted March 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GFS will play catchup yet again I'd hit a 70/30 compromise. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ineedsnow Posted March 15, 2017 6z gfs was close Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moneypitmike Posted March 15, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I'd hit a 70/30 compromise. I'd put the GYX CWA as the place to be for this one--at least at this point in time. Unfortunately, I don't think I'm going to be there this weekend. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cold Miser Posted March 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's coming for everyone. We've seen these time and time again. Timeframe? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ORH_wxman Posted March 15, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: The Euro is really nice mid level magic type of evolution. It just happens too far east on this run. Yeah it looks like BOS actually might be in a good spot on the OP euro. But the meat looks just to the east. This one has some potential. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weathafella Posted March 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it looks like BOS actually might be in a good spot on the OP euro. But the meat looks just to the east. This one has some potential. Memory says very similar setup to identical weekend in 1956. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoth Posted March 15, 2017 I kind of like Ginx up to Ray for this one, assuming it pans out. Mostly glad to see there's something worth tracking. It's always rough after a big storm to see endless sunshine days on the modeling. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Morch Madness Posted March 15, 2017 UKIE would probably be decent as well Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moneypitmike Posted March 15, 2017 This is the time of year that regardless of the temp, the sun will feel warm and the snows will still be melting on the roads. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 15, 2017 Meh, my back door is still unhinged after the abuse it took, needs until friday to recover. We watch out the window into the backyard though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 15, 2017 20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This is the time of year that regardless of the temp, the sun will feel warm and the snows will still be melting on the roads. Just did the final cleanup from yesterday. Temp is now 14F but with no wind it was fine. winter won't die, despite some struggles. It looks like this weekend is SE SNE bound...TAN, Foxborough, Brockton type o deal Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weathafella Posted March 15, 2017 Lol...the short drive to work didn't unfreeze my windows so I couldn't get them to open-getting out of the car to activate gate for parking lot access ftl. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Whineminster Posted March 15, 2017 It'll trend west just like the past storm, you know this. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zeus Posted March 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Meh, my back door is still unhinged after the abuse it took, needs until friday to recover. I recommend Gun Oil next time! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted March 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just did the final cleanup from yesterday. Temp is now 14F but with no wind it was fine. winter won't die, despite some struggles. It looks like this weekend is SE SNE bound...TAN, Foxborough, Brockton type o deal Nope..it's for everyone. Pattern ripe for the NW move..as our eyes get bigger each successive run and it comes NW Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ROOSTA Posted March 15, 2017 Baby it's cold. Wind-chills in the 30's. Liking the prospects of leaf catching, fertilizing over shoveling, salting. I84 would have been a great chase route. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted March 15, 2017 5 hours ago, OceanStWx said: EPS definitely has the mean 500 mb low farther north than the op, which is good. There is also a cluster of members with surface lows near the Cape. So that tells me there is a background pattern in a good chunk of the members that is leading to a farther north system. Think of it as phase two of the sensitivity analysis. Cluster groups of ensemble members together, then figure out what pattern leads to those clusters. Then you can really figure out what a tweak to the western ridge, or deeper shortwave might do to the operational runs. I agree with you on the mid level evolution (500 H) in principle. I'm a little skeptical about the lower baroclinic tapestry for that weekend thing. To schools with that: -- The diabatic tsunamis has kicked in; March is a big differential month for that. We can get away with a fetid polar air mass much easier on March 1 than we can the same air mass being assaulted by daily hemispheric insolation uptake at the end of the month. That's true in February and April, too...but, March has the greatest difference from D1 to 31... Anyway, obviously you know this but my point is, I could see a light/moderate varying intensity fall rates we end up with light rain and parachutes do to decent mid level power spinning over top a diffused lower level baroclinicity... It's one reason why early April 500 mb evolutions can look so delicious but then you look at the attending surface charts and you only have vague closures and ho-hum drabby weather. It's a timing game... where the cold needs to be fresh. It "looks" like we may not have that for this next ordeal. -- This system is also not benefiting from a southern stream moisture advection. If the baroclinic gradients end up week... lacking moisture limit things. Again ... favors chilly rain and 'chutes, .. elevations may do better though - Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted March 15, 2017 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: I'd put the GYX CWA as the place to be for this one--at least at this point in time. Unfortunately, I don't think I'm going to be there this weekend. Fortunately I will Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Southshorewx Posted March 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol...the short drive to work didn't unfreeze my windows so I couldn't get them to open-getting out of the car to activate gate for parking lot access ftl. Mine defrosted just in time as I pulled in the parking lot. Haha. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
moneypitmike Posted March 15, 2017 29 minutes ago, Whineminster said: It'll trend west just like the past storm, you know this. Dude, the last one trended east. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cold Miser Posted March 15, 2017 East...Will be SE Mass Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites