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Model Mayhem VII


Typhoon Tip

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26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

QPF was too high up here....very few amounts over 1.70". Slicing about 25-30% off QPF forecasts was probably the best move. Ironically, the GFS was the closest to QPF in this area of SNE...but it had a track that was too far east, so its QPF amounts were probably horrible out west, esp in NY State.

Cocorahs totals were pretty high up here (1.50"-2.00"+). I didn't check Mass, but I sorta tossed the ASOS liquid numbers. CON reported 0.96" from the ASOS, but they went with a straight 10:1 of 1.56" from the observer's 15.6" report.

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35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Great post. Regarding group think I believe the worst trap gets set when guidance and group (forecaster) consensus are aligned inside 48 hrs. You, the individual may be incredulous -- but do you have enough to go against the herd (model consensus + forecaster consensus)? 

Another issue is overestimating the power of ensemble forecasts. How many times do we see a final solution that was outside the envelope of solutions inside 48 hr...All too often.

Yes, our ensembles are underdispersive. That said there were EPS members that did show a far western solution - a handful on Monday (both 00z and 12z) did bring the sfc low west of BID/FOK. 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

After 50's tuesday in SNE with hacky sack games breaking out winter flys in again with windchills below zero Wed To Fri on the Euro, yuck

Gotta tell you....I'm done, man....at this point, the reward isn't event worth it.

I just want warmth...although I would like to scrape another inch together just to verify the low end of  my seasonal range.

Kev is in the middle of my forecast range.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta tell you....I'm done, man....at this point, the reward isn't event worth it.

I just want warmth...although I would like to scrape another inch together just to verify the low end of  my seasonal range.

Kev is in the middle of my forecast range.

that cold punch surprised me, damn cold for March, probably the last one then misery mist shows up. I would not be surprised if there is one more snow "event". Traditionally after I get home from vacation we start baseball practices, may be a delay .....

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