Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Closer to the coast compared to yesterday at 12z, but stronger cold air advection. Sweet! Dayum...look at that moist easterly flow straight into the Blue Ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I figured that run was a bit wonky. We toss the CMC. Probably a safe bet. Had the Euro wavered, I could understand giving the CMC a second glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I can hear thunder rumbling @ 12z tues....omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Still going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 12z EPS should be really fun to see.. I hope. Would this be the last time we look at the EPS? Or do we give it another run or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Yeah. Its a smooth foot plus for everyone DC and west. Obviously would expect some mixing issues east. But that is a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: With that kind of QPF I assume the timeline is longer than the GFS? Yes...doesn't taper until mid evening on Tuesday lol...Euro loves long storms...I doubt it will be that long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 What is the general start and stop time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Whole view QPF map through 06z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Given the pressure gradient, I would expect winds to be howling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Also, great example why the snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Surface is a non issue for sure. Below freezing with a ton on the ground before going above freezing. I'm skeptical in that even DC goes above freezing during the rakage. This is a sick run for everyone with an unusual jack over and SE of DC Even if slightly above freezing, we've already been hammered before then it looks like from what you relate here. Hate to bring up the "rates" thing, but when temps do get marginal by 12Z or so, I'd think that would overcome anything? Or maybe it's pretty well done by then anyhow. Looks like the mid-levels are good going by an 850 plot someone posted a short time ago, even if the surface goes somewhat above for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 This would rank pretty damn high on the NESIS. Metropolitan destruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I figured that run was a bit wonky. We toss the CMC. Agreed the NS troff is 300 miles east of any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Yes...doesn't taper until mid evening on Tuesday lol...Euro loves long storms...I doubt it will be that long... That's quite a bit later than the previous cycle, no? Though doubt it goes as far as into Tuesday evening too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Also, great example why the snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt was going to say, Ian seems way less excited about this than you guys...he was calling it "brutal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Are we sure that other snow map isnt TOO specific on what it takes to accumulate, I would garuntee that map that Ian posted would not verify if that run happened verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Hour 102 is just obscene. 0.7" QPF in 6 hours... with maybe 75-80% as snow. If there wasn't thundersnow in there, I'd be shocked. With 40+mph gusts along the bay... 30+mph as far west as 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 I can't speak for Ian, his twitter feed mentioned the inset was the SV high res snow map - his point was, as it always is, is that any snow-map is unreliable. Ian also wages an almost non-stop war against hypers on twitter and social media... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Will gladly take the EURO for win in west end RVA. 8-10 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 There must be a warm nose above 850. I wish I had those panels. Here's hr96. Crap. Embedded link won't show. Anyways, there's probably/likely some stuff going on upstairs that wxbell is clearly missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: There must be a warm nose above 850. I wish I had those panels. Here's hr96. You got a 700 panel? Could be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Also, great example why the snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt So verbatim this Euro run is a 95 west storm correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Also, great example why the snow maps should be taken with a grain of salt SV is a good cautionary tale. As Weatherbell is a bit silly sometimes with ignoring the surface. In this case, SV is a little silly. Even SV's own output has temps of 32-33 at DCA for the whole event. Never goes above 34. And the rest of the column seems to be fine. Doesn't mean there won't be surface issues or mixing, but with that amount of QPF and precip type snow, I don't care if it is 35. It's sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Is Ian correct that they are the same maps same run? They look almost nothing alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You got a 700 panel? Could be there. 700 is well below throughout. It's -5 to -6 at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Temps are really iffy along 95 and east. thus why I think the Storm Vista map isn't as gung-ho as that other place. Looking at Fairfax as an example From 00z Tuesday on 37 32 33 33 33 31 sure, with heavy rates those surface temps won't matter My post was an example why those snow maps shouldn't be taken verbatim. Gotta look at the levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Its a smooth foot plus for everyone DC and west. Obviously would expect some mixing issues east. But that is a monster storm. Looks textbook for us. Strong easterly moisture fetch is the one thing that rarely disappoints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: You got a 700 panel? Could be there. 700 is plenty cold door to door. Must be the dreaded 800mb warm nose in the mix. We're probably overthinking anyways. It's a sweet run if not tucked a little close. Going by past history there would be some mixing in the typical areas but a big hit likely most everywhere until you get a good bit SE of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: SV is a good cautionary tale. As Weatherbell is a bit silly sometimes with ignoring the surface. In this case, SV is a little silly. Even SV's own output has temps of 32-33 at DCA for the whole event. Never goes above 34. And the rest of the column seems to be fine. Doesn't mean there won't be surface issues or mixing, but with that amount of QPF and precip type snow, I don't care if it is 35. It's sticking Just now, mappy said: Temps are really iffy along 95 and east. thus why I think the Storm Vista map isn't as gung-ho as that other place. Looking at Fairfax as an example From 00z Tuesday on 37 32 33 33 33 31 sure, with heavy rates those surface temps won't matter My post was an example why those snow maps shouldn't be taken verbatim. Gotta look at the levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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