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March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential


NEG NAO

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

January 87 however was more developed earlier further south down the coast, so there was more room for heavy snow in advance of the changeover it was snowing heavily already here with the low off N NC.  In this case despite the track being further east almost for sure compared to 1987 the margin for error is a bit less since the front end I don't think is as good if we get into a changeover scenario

Yes, and it also being later in the season.

I think the warmer than normal winter will play a role here too with this marginal late season event (the story would be different if this was, say, March 2015.)  It will also limit back end snow as the pattern this whole season has been for fast moving systems.

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9 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Yes, and it also being later in the season.

I think the warmer than normal winter will play a role here too with this marginal late season event (the story would be different if this was, say, March 2015.)  It will also limit back end snow as the pattern this whole season has been for fast moving systems.

Back end snows here really only occur with a closed off vertically stacked system that tracks with a NE trajectory from off ACY to New England, any sort of component in track that takes it straight northward into New England or the HV results in downslope flow and no change back.

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Obviously a wide range of possible outcomes for NYC, LI and CT, more definite snow for n NJ and HV. But I think the storm is on a good track for heavy snow anywhere west of ISP to PVD. It will try to push back warm air to the west but the steady advance of the ULL and the strong dynamics will keep most of the precip snow, so I am going for 15-20 inches in NYC and western LI, 17-24 in HV and parts of n NJ. I think there is some potential for this to deepen even more than models currently depict and to reach 965 mbs before landfall in se MA. The fastest development will take place from Hatteras to 39N. 

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25 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Obviously a wide range of possible outcomes for NYC, LI and CT, more definite snow for n NJ and HV. But I think the storm is on a good track for heavy snow anywhere west of ISP to PVD. It will try to push back warm air to the west but the steady advance of the ULL and the strong dynamics will keep most of the precip snow, so I am going for 15-20 inches in NYC and western LI, 17-24 in HV and parts of n NJ. I think there is some potential for this to deepen even more than models currently depict and to reach 965 mbs before landfall in se MA. The fastest development will take place from Hatteras to 39N. 

Technically, that is what I expect also, west of ISP is where to expect mostly/all snow.  More of a concern west of there is a dry slot and a fast moving system.

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 00Z GEM LAM never changes NYC over at all, the sleet line stalls or even inches back south from 10-13Z from Sandy Hook to JFK.  Long Island does mix for central and ERN areas.

So JFK mixes for a very brief time?

Also, what is "LAM"

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49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Back end snows here really only occur with a closed off vertically stacked system that tracks with a NE trajectory from off ACY to New England, any sort of component in track that takes it straight northward into New England or the HV results in downslope flow and no change back.

3/01 was good for back end snows, most of us got warning criteria from back end snows, and that was the entire storm for us.

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22 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Mt.Holly keeps the Winter Storm Warning for my area but increased accumulations to 18-24" wow.

Edit: Just upgraded to a Blizzard Warning

So what do you think? Went to bed with a bunch of people here honking historical snowstorm for the city, wake up to people jumping of bridges....this is really tiresome and makes me wonder if it is productive to even bother to look until the storm is here....

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And maps are up - a little surprised they're this bullish having seen the Euro, as they only seem to be heavily factoring in sleet/rain for coastal Ocean and southward and for eastern LI, but they're the experts - and there are all the other models east of the Euro showing 12-20" or more nearly everywhere in this forum, so I guess they're going with that. Let's hope it verifies and we aren't on a west trend...

 

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