• Member Statistics

    16,112
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Jerry Korkos
    Newest Member
    Jerry Korkos
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
NEG NAO

March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

Recommended Posts

The time has come to open a new thread as all models have been on board for a major potential for many runs in a row

gfs_z850_vort_us_18.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know this should belong in the vendor thread but since it is specific to this storm I wanted to post it here.

From John (Earthlight)

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2017/03/10/increasing-potential-significant-snowstorm-next-week/


Didn't say all that much tbh

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, USCG RS said:


Didn't say all that much tbh

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

And probably pretty smart, he is just laying out the potential. Did you expect specific details at this range?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, not at all. I just appreciate more when he goes into specifics. He always has good insight

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Morris said:

Ownage at 90. Further east.

Don't be fooled. It's not further East, just an illusion. The coastal just takes over faster. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Don't be fooled. It's not further East, just an illusion. The coastal just takes over faster. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

This run is colder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See, the storm still ends up over SNE

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_17.png

In nearly the same spot as 12z, it's slower with the track and the coastal takes over much sooner thanks to the improvements at H5.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i think the gfs is completely out to lunch. the southern wave is so quick to be absorbed by the PV lobe 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i think the gfs is completely out to lunch. the southern wave is so quick to be absorbed by the PV lobe 

Ok, be good enough to explain why that doesnt make physical sense. I know the combination of the Euro, EPS and Ukie is very solid so I know the GFS is being stubborn in its lack of comprehension of the info but why wouldnt the southern wave be absorbed?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, forkyfork said:

No snowmaps from this point forward.  Post them in the banter thread.

This

 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I95 is the 6" line it appears. 

Because of this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

3/4/2001 is the #7 analog. Honestly, the setup at H5 isn't far off.

030509.png
 
gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

That just gave me chills but I am not seeing the sling shot effect of the Miller B at play, which is what destroyed what was supposed to be an HECS for NY back then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

Ok, be good enough to explain why that doesnt make physical sense. I know the combination of the Euro, EPS and Ukie is very solid so I know the GFS is being stubborn in its lack of comprehension of the info but why wouldnt the southern wave be absorbed?

UKIE goes over land in SNE.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

That just gave me chills but I am not seeing the sling shot effect of the Miller B at play, which is what destroyed what was supposed to be an HECS for NY back then

Sure about that, look at the Euro.

f96.gif
030515.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, nyblizz44 said:

That just gave me chills but I am not seeing the sling shot effect of the Miller B at play, which is what destroyed what was supposed to be an HECS for NY back then

Hopefully that isn't what happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

3/4/2001 is the #7 analog. Honestly, the setup at H5 isn't far off.

030509.png
 
gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

::Closes eyes and covers ears:: :weep:

In all seriousness, there are some similarities there.  I'm cautiously optimistic about this one, but I stress "cautiously."  Model trends are in our favor, but they've fooled us before and, given this happy medium we must reach between a miss and a full phase, I think the chances for disappointment are higher than the excitement in here lets on.

All in all, we should be thrilled that we have such a beastly threat to track this late into the season, but we should keep our expectations tempered appropriately.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.