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Bob Chill

Winter 2017-18 Disco

722 posts in this topic

No time like the present to start discussing next winter. Met winter 16-17 is in the books (good f'n riddance). Enso models are pointing towards another Nino but until we get beyond the spring barrier we really won't have any idea which way things will break in the enso regions. 

Feb ECMWF plumes look pretty good to me. March should be out shortly. 

ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119

 

March CFS plots look pretty good too

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

Current SSTA's are already pointing towards an easy trip to Ninoland

anomnight.2.27.2017.gif

 

The best case scenario is obviously a west based mod nino. I can envision the warm anomalies building in Nino 1-2 and propagating westward then 1-2 can cool right into fall. LOL

 

March CanSips is showing a pretty classic DJF nino progression with the LW pattern. Aleutian low in place in Dec with lower heights in the west half of the conus. Arctic is already primed with higher heights in the AO/NAO domain space:

cansips_z500a_nhem_10.png

 

Jan shows a transition towards split flow with a nice sag in heights across the southern tier and ridging in NW canada

 

cansips_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

Feb is looking really good with an active southern stream and blocking over the top. Miller A parade on tap. 

 

cansips_z500a_nhem_12.png

 

 

DJF mean precip anomaly looks just like you would expect with a nino:

 

cansips_apcpna_multimonth_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

If it's time to open this thread, then it's time to open a new Panic Room also.

I'm still waiting for some of the stragglers to croak so I can clean up the premises and add another coat of paint in the rooms. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm still waiting for some of the stragglers to croak so I can clean up the premises and add another coat of paint in the rooms. 

This gave me an instant mental picture of Norman Bates wandering around the Bates Motel with a checklist of things to do.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This gave me an instant mental picture of Norman Bates wandering around the Bates Motel with a checklist of things to do.

Hillarious!!!!

I am actually hoping for an ENSO neutral winter. At least they tend to be wet around here and we end up on the fall line. There was never any excitement this entire winter. As a matter of fact. This is no doubt the worst winter of my lifetime.

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34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Hillarious!!!!

I am actually hoping for an ENSO neutral winter. At least they tend to be wet around here and we end up on the fall line. There was never any excitement this entire winter. As a matter of fact. This is no doubt the worst winter of my lifetime.

Yeah, I don't share enthusiasm for NINO's.  Weak, OK, but last year shows just how bad they can be.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm still waiting for some of the stragglers to croak so I can clean up the premises and add another coat of paint in the rooms. 

 

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This gave me an instant mental picture of Norman Bates wandering around the Bates Motel with a checklist of things to do.

I laughed WAY too hard at this. 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ok, enough banter This thread is only for serious discussion about 249 day CFS surface plots and stuff. 

Looks like a cutter to me.

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4 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Hillarious!!!!

I am actually hoping for an ENSO neutral winter. At least they tend to be wet around here and we end up on the fall line. There was never any excitement this entire winter. As a matter of fact. This is no doubt the worst winter of my lifetime.

I think I am a lot older than you, and I am currently debating if this might be the worst winter I have experienced.  2017-18 can't come soon enough.  Long, long months of swelter to get through first, but hopefully we see some changes emerging from the last year+ wretched warm/dry pattern.

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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

ECMWF march plumes are in. Mod west based nino incoming. Get your shovels ready. 

ps2png-atls12-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e8

I like it !  

Please can we get the QBO to cooperate.  

If we can get a Easterly QBO and a moderate West Based Nino I could care less about snow advance and all that.  

Wonder how this effects the summer as well. I read most very warm winters here have cooler summers 2/3 of the time.   

 

 

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24 minutes ago, frd said:

I like it !  

Please can we get the QBO to cooperate.  

If we can get a Easterly QBO and a moderate West Based Nino I could care less about snow advance and all that.  

Wonder how this effects the summer as well. I read most very warm winters here have cooler summers 2/3 of the time.   

 

 

You probably already know this but long range nino forecasting is notoriously poor until we cross the spring barrier. Just recently we've seen quite a few flips in guidance until we get to June'ish leads. 

My super simpleton thoughts are that the current run of anomalous +AO winters has probably run its course. That would go along with the QBO changing as well. Multi year base states of the AO are actually fairly common through time. We're up to 4 years in a row now. Certainly not unprecedented. The 90's had a really bad run too. But it did break down and deliver one for the books (95-96). The 60's had a very long duration -AO run as well but that broke down in the early 70's so the first half of the decade pretty much sucked around here. 

We escaped the current +AO run unscathed. That is kinda unprecedented. We hit 3 climos in a row with hostile high latitudes. Chaos at its finest. lol.

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23 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

You probably already know this but long range nino forecasting is notoriously poor until we cross the spring barrier. Just recently we've seen quite a few flips in guidance until we get to June'ish leads. 

My super simpleton thoughts are that the current run of anomalous +AO winters has probably run its course. That would go along with the QBO changing as well. Multi year base states of the AO are actually fairly common through time. We're up to 4 years in a row now. Certainly not unprecedented. The 90's had a really bad run too. But it did break down and deliver one for the books (95-96). The 60's had a very long duration -AO run as well but that broke down in the early 70's so the first half of the decade pretty much sucked around here. 

We escaped the current +AO run unscathed. That is kinda unprecedented. We hit 3 climos in a row with hostile high latitudes. Chaos at its finest. lol.

Yep, all true,  and I expect you to keep this thread updated during the summer as the El Nino comes into better focus :-)

We can all thank the -EPO for helping us all the last several years. I am eager to follow this thread as the months proceed. 

I share your thoughts that the NAO and AO domains are ready to shift, and that the changes only deepens in next couple years.

 

 

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I'm sure some of you get tired of hearing "when was the last time x happened?"...but I'm convinced that analogs are becoming a big thing for the future of nwp.  The following chart says it all.  If we go super +enso, we'd (again) be in unseen territory!  No two strong nino events have ever occurred within 5 years of one another.  There were a few moderate ninos squished together with 63-66 and 86-88 from a quick glance, but it's interesting to see the stronger ninos of those years were after the slightly weaker moderates.  Good data from that site! http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

oni.png

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On 3/17/2017 at 1:06 PM, BTRWx said:

I'm sure some of you get tired of hearing "when was the last time x happened?"...but I'm convinced that analogs are becoming a big thing for the future of nwp.  The following chart says it all.  If we go super +enso, we'd (again) be in unseen territory!  No two strong nino events have ever occurred within 5 years of one another.  There were a few moderate ninos squished together with 63-66 and 86-88 from a quick glance, but it's interesting to see the stronger ninos of those years were after the slightly weaker moderates.  Good data from that site! http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

 

I wouldn't jump to a super nino conclusion. That chart argues that the chances are slim. Yes, I agree that the background warmer base state we're in now carries a subset of increased unpredictability but IMHO the chances of another strong Nino are pretty small. We'll know a lot more this summer when LR nino guidance has much more skill than pre-spring barrier progs. Right now the most likely outcome is somewhere between warm neutral to moderate. A collapse back towards cold neutral or even nina territory is very much on the table but will become much less likely if progs continue to show warmth across all ENSO regions over the next 3 months or so.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I wouldn't jump to a super nino conclusion. That chart argues that the chances are slim. Yes, I agree that the background warmer base state we're in now carries a subset of increased unpredictability but IMHO the chances of another strong Nino are pretty small. We'll know a lot more this summer when LR nino guidance has much more skill than pre-spring barrier progs. Right now the most likely outcome is somewhere between warm neutral to moderate. A collapse back towards cold neutral or even nina territory is very much on the table but will become much less likely if progs continue to show warmth across all ENSO regions over the next 3 months or so.

I wonder if we see Nino at all.  Each of the high end Ninos in that graph are followed by multi-year cool cycles

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Still in the spring barrier but should have a better idea how things will progress this summer in the next month or so. Last couple CFS runs are backing down a bit with the latest being the lowest. Updated ECMWF won't be out for a few weeks. nino34Mon.gif

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Still in the spring barrier but should have a better idea how things will progress this summer in the next month or so. Last couple CFS runs are backing down a bit with the latest being the lowest. Updated ECMWF won't be out for a few weeks. nino34Mon.gif

Betcha a couple of beers at a Nats game that we end up neutral/slight nina.

 

 

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