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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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As mentioned above -- SPC moves the Enhanced risk to cover most of the area. 

 

From SPC

...KY-TN eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states...
   Radar imagery early this morning shows an extensive squall line from
   the upper OH Valley southwestward into portions of west-central KY
   and middle TN.  The southern portion of the squall line has had a
   several-hour history of widespread measured severe gusts as it
   tracked from eastern AR into western KY/TN.  A MCV associated with
   this part of the line is forecast to move downstream within a belt
   of 80-90 kt 500-mb flow.  It seems likely the greatest concentration
   of severe gusts and swaths of wind damage will align from near the
   I-65 corridor in TN/KY to the spine of the Appalachians by late this
   morning (16z)---resulting in higher wind probabilities and a
   moderate risk.  It appears increasingly likely destabilization will
   not be inhibited by prior storm activity from the southern half of
   WV east-northeastward into the D.C and DelMarVa areas.  CAM
   guidance, in particular the 01/00z NSSL WRF, appears to have a
   relatively good depiction of the evolving convective lines through
   12z this morning.  Storm-scale guidance moves a squall line into the
   I-95 corridor during the early afternoon (roughly 18-21z) coincident
   with appreciable diurnal destabilization and steepening of low-level
   lapse rates and becoming more favorable for momentum transfer.  In
   addition to the risk for widespread damaging winds, the
   stronger/longer-lived mesovortices embedded within the line may
   yield a weak tornado risk.

MD_swody1.png

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3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

What do you mean by hatching?

Everything you need to know about the risk areas and hatching.  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/about.html

 

The short of it is that hatched areas are really the target zone for either hail, tornadoes or wind.  You'll see the area defined with this black outlined area and little dashed inside (see image below). CjZYPQWUoAAzm7m.jpg)

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I thought yesterday you were all meh ;)

I was 'mehing' out yesterday, but this morning has me reinvigorated.  Only thing that could ruin us would be timing, but it's really nice to see this activity persist overnight and stay energized through Kentucky.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Clearing looks good to our SW.  Good low level jet should help push that out of here.  I'm bigly excited.

What's the ETA on clearing around the DMV? The sooner the better! I want sun to bake us good for a few hours.  Might as well go big today.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I was 'mehing' out yesterday, but this morning has me reinvigorated.  Only thing that could ruin us would be timing, but it's really nice to see this activity persist overnight and stay energized through Kentucky.

just giving you a hard time. :) 

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

What's the ETA on clearing around the DMV? The sooner the better! I want sun to bake us good for a few hours.  Might as well go big today.

I'm thinking 10am to noon.  It's encouraging to see breaks all the way up in to the panhandle of WV.  

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51 minutes ago, mappy said:

As mentioned above -- SPC moves the Enhanced risk to cover most of the area. 

 

From SPC


...KY-TN eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states...
   Radar imagery early this morning shows an extensive squall line from
   the upper OH Valley southwestward into portions of west-central KY
   and middle TN.  The southern portion of the squall line has had a
   several-hour history of widespread measured severe gusts as it
   tracked from eastern AR into western KY/TN.  A MCV associated with
   this part of the line is forecast to move downstream within a belt
   of 80-90 kt 500-mb flow.  It seems likely the greatest concentration
   of severe gusts and swaths of wind damage will align from near the
   I-65 corridor in TN/KY to the spine of the Appalachians by late this
   morning (16z)---resulting in higher wind probabilities and a
   moderate risk.  It appears increasingly likely destabilization will
   not be inhibited by prior storm activity from the southern half of
   WV east-northeastward into the D.C and DelMarVa areas.  CAM
   guidance, in particular the 01/00z NSSL WRF, appears to have a
   relatively good depiction of the evolving convective lines through
   12z this morning.  Storm-scale guidance moves a squall line into the
   I-95 corridor during the early afternoon (roughly 18-21z) coincident
   with appreciable diurnal destabilization and steepening of low-level
   lapse rates and becoming more favorable for momentum transfer.  In
   addition to the risk for widespread damaging winds, the
   stronger/longer-lived mesovortices embedded within the line may
   yield a weak tornado risk.

MD_swody1.png

Mappy, do you have the link to create the state specific maps like the one above. Never seem to find where I can do that.....thanks in advance.

 

Thin clouds here in Spotsylvania....64/61

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