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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

This is my kind of weather. If you are one of the people who blames me for no snow after moving from Louisiana, consider early March severe to be my jello-mold present to all of you.

You'll be accepted with open arms if you can bring us real severe during spring, with the occasional supercells during our peak heat in the summer.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

6z  3km parallel NAM nest (to become ops in a few weeks) continues its idea of a lead northern line washing out and leaving a E-W boundary across DC metro, as a line of cells arrives an hour or two later.     It has a scary-looking supercell right over DC at 00z tomorrow evening.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_42.png

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I'm going for a discrete super cell that drops a wedge over Montgomery.  there are a couple things that need to fall into place this time of year for us to maximize our potential namely: clearing and warming at the surface.  We need good, regional clearing and temps to get well into the 70s.  There's still a chance this thing falls apart, but so far I'm still very much interested in this event.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm going for a discrete super cell that drops a wedge over Montgomery.  there are a couple things that need to fall into place this time of year for us to maximize our potential namely: clearing and warming at the surface.  We need good, regional clearing and temps to get well into the 70s.  There's still a chance this thing falls apart, but so far I'm still very much interested in this event.

I still have significant concerns we have significant cloud cover too late into the morning/afternoon. I think the clearing aspect is the biggest wild card (as it always is around here). Shear doesn't seem like it will be the problem. Would be cool to max potential.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I still have significant concerns we have significant cloud cover too late into the morning/afternoon. I think the clearing aspect is the biggest wild card (as it always is around here). Shear doesn't seem like it will be the problem. Would be cool to max potential.

Yea, that's my concern too.  It's nothing new, standard worry for severe around these parts.  

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm going for a discrete super cell that drops a wedge over Montgomery.  there are a couple things that need to fall into place this time of year for us to maximize our potential namely: clearing and warming at the surface.  We need good, regional clearing and temps to get well into the 70s.  There's still a chance this thing falls apart, but so far I'm still very much interested in this event.

for the guests reading -- do not take this part seriously... 

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21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I still have significant concerns we have significant cloud cover too late into the morning/afternoon. I think the clearing aspect is the biggest wild card (as it always is around here). Shear doesn't seem like it will be the problem. Would be cool to max potential.

The 4km NAM doesn't really clear us until mid-afternoon, but still has us at ~78/60.  Not sure I buy it, but we could work with that.

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The 4km NAM doesn't really clear us until mid-afternoon, but still has us at ~78/60.  Not sure I buy it, but we could work with that.

I think my test will be around 1pm tomorrow. If it looks like we are solidly socked in we'll probably fail. If clearing is nearby or overhead I'll say game on. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think my test will be around 1pm tomorrow. If it looks like we are solidly socked in we'll probably fail. If clearing is nearby or overhead I'll say game on. 

I'd bump that up to 11-12am.  Overnight convection in the Ohio Valley will be telling, if it shoves a ton of debris clouds our way then we're in trouble.  

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM soundings across the region have some serious low-level shear and SRH... even at 03z THURS... I would not be surprised to see ENH for us at the 1730 SPC Day 2 OTLK

I am also a lil concerned with the 0-3km MLCAPE being over 100 J/KG at both 00z and 03z THURS at DCA

Day 2 ENH wouldn't surprise me with the afternoon update, but I'm one of those weirdos that like to wake up on Day 1 with a slight and then get bumped up to ENH/MOD quickly as the day goes on.

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Day 2 ENH wouldn't surprise me with the afternoon update, but I'm one of those weirdos that like to wake up on Day 1 with a slight and then get bumped up to ENH/MOD quickly as the day goes on.

Yes those are the best days. When you get upgraded on day 2 it's a recipe for a letdown. 

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26 minutes ago, TheWeatherPimp said:

(FYI:  This is from the Lakes/Ohio Valley severe thread)

Never seen this model run before... going to watch it to see what it does as it updates later today

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3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

If 1:00 is the cutoff for clearing, it's gonna be tough with this look out west. Most of that will end up north of course, but debris clouds and at least some of it ending up south of the mason/Dixon could really screw us here.

IMG_3608.PNG

That shows me mostly clear skies with some clouds nearby... and he meant 1 PM as the cutoff ;)

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