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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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11 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Mappy, do you have the link to create the state specific maps like the one above. Never seem to find where I can do that.....thanks in advance.

 

Thin clouds here in Spotsylvania....64/61

yup

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/

One for each state, only the main SPC outlooks, no individual maps for wind, hail or tornadoes. 

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      So, a mid-afternoon squall line is getting close to being locked in, but I'm still curious if there will be a part 2 this evening.   In theory, the main show will trash the environment with little chance to recover, and that's what is shown by the latest HRRR and NAM ops and para nests.    But the front won't come through until late evening, and mid-level cooling and a strong jet core will overspread the area just in advance.    The overnight NAM nest runs (including the fire wx nest) and the ESRL HRRR parallel show a round 2, although it seems like the southern part of DC metro might have the best shot, if there really is a second round.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I don't know, discrete cells firing in a 2-3 STP environment (1000 CAPE+shear).  They don't merge until after 95, but so be it. 

Oh I know. Doesn't look awful, just you know... after it passes most people here. Shrug. 

Just now, high risk said:

      So, a mid-afternoon squall line is getting close to being locked in, but I'm still curious if there will be a part 2 this evening.   In theory, the main show will trash the environment with little chance to recover, and that's what is shown by the latest HRRR and NAM ops and para nests.    But the front won't come through until late evening, and mid-level cooling and a strong jet core will overspread the area just in advance.    The overnight NAM nest runs (including the fire wx nest) and the ESRL HRRR parallel show a round 2, although it seems like the southern part of DC metro might have the best shot, if there really is a second round.

I feel like second rounds never work out well here. But we shall see. Also, saw someone on twitter mention today as a derecho. sigh. 

Just now, Scuddz said:

*headdesk*

I warned you. 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The northern Maryland cell might have a chance, but the one near D.C. might not have enough space to get going. 

 

If you look at the UH swaths (I know), the most impressive one is just south of the Beltway.  Not dissimilar from the track from the other day, frankly. 

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