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2017 Severe Thread


mappy

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

(FYI:  This is from the Lakes/Ohio Valley severe thread)

Never seen this model run before... going to watch it to see what it does as it updates later today

 

            It's a HRRR time-lagged ensemble, where they take the previous (I believe) 3 HRRR runs and make means and probabilities from them.   Not sure exactly what defines a tornado occurring in the post processing here, but it's likely something tied in to updraft helicity.

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Looks like the line could be passing through NW MontCo just as I get off the MARC train.  That happened with a nasty storm last summer -- I felt like I was in a washing machine for the 50-yard sprint to the car.  Umbrella was no help as it was raining sideways; and a bolt hit real close by just before I got to the car.  I have never been so soaked LOL!

 

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25 minutes ago, yoda said:

That shows me mostly clear skies with some clouds nearby... and he meant 1 PM as the cutoff ;)

Yoda, remember that is IR so just because there are not pretty colors over us does not mean mostly clear necessarily! 

And yes I did mean 1pm :lol:

We are going to have clouds - I don't think anybody is questioning that - but the thickness and coverage is what is in question.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Yoda, remember that is IR so just because there are not pretty colors over us does not mean mostly clear necessarily! 

And yes I did mean 1pm :lol:

We are going to have clouds - I don't think anybody is questioning that - but the thickness and coverage is what is in question.

I made that post knowing you meant 1 pm lol. I was just pointing out 10 hours to move even most of that out will be tough. 

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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

MOD risk appears in 1630 OTLK... large hatched 10% with small area of 15%... hail probs increased to 45% hatched... this leads me to believe we will likely be in the ENH risk in the 1730 Day 2 OTLK

I'm not sure your logic carries :P

Just because they get bumped today doesn't mean we will - in fact, couldn't more intense/widespread storms out there mean more debris clouds for us? Not saying we wont' get nudged to ENH but just saying I'm not entirely certain the two are linked.

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Looks like the line could be passing through NW MontCo just as I get off the MARC train.  That happened with a nasty storm last summer -- I felt like I was in a washing machine for the 50-yard sprint to the car.  Umbrella was no help as it was raining sideways; and a bolt hit real close by just before I got to the car.  I have never been so soaked LOL!

I'll be perfectly satisfied with it waiting until after 4:30, which is when I get off my VRE train.

Last year, I got stuck for about 45 minutes at the station before mine due to a tornado warning out near Manassas. Once the warning was lifted, we continued on our merry way, only to get rocked about halfway between the stops. That was fun!

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33 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like SPC just went 10% hatched close to Chicago (don't agree - lake breeze will probably kick in and kill that threat), and MOD risk for parts of MO, IL.

Synoptic gradient looks strong enough to keep lake breeze at bay.  Bigger question/issue is getting enough instability that far north, hence the better probabilities down around I-80.

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We stay in the Day 2 slight per SPC.  Good move.

 

Quote

 ...East of the Appalachians from southern New York/New England into
   the Carolinas and Georgia... 
   Over the northern part of this area, several rounds of strong/severe
   storms may spread eastward across the region before the threat ends
   with passage of the cold front.  Farther south, the primary
   convective threat is expected to remain closer to the cold front
   where a line of storms is likely to develop and progress
   eastward/southeastward through the afternoon into the overnight
   hours.

   Low-level moisture is expected to gradually increase, especially
   from the Atlantic, with surface dew points of 60-65F from the
   Delmarva region southward, and 50-60F extending northward into
   southern parts of New York and New England.  The limited moisture
   will be offset to some extent by an plume of modestly steeper
   mid-level lapse rates spreading over the area, with MUCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg possible over the area.  Strong winds aloft and
   associated vertical shear will enhance storm organization, with
   potential for some rotating updrafts and bowing  line segments to
   develop through the night.  Damaging wind gusts are expected to be
   primary severe threat, although a tornado cannot be ruled out given
   the large clockwise low-level hodograph structure indicated in
   forecast soundings.

   ..Weiss.. 02/28/2017

 

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27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like Ian is not in on this event per his Twitter account.

His rationale seems to be that the forcing lags. - It's a high bust potential for sure - but if we somehow find a way to max potential it could be nasty. I'm not on board yet. 

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX HWO for tomorrow is pretty 'meh'.  "isolated severe"

Could be good for your "surprise on the day of" mentality. I could see tomorrow being pretty mundane with a few isolated severe reports to be honest. I am NOT expecting those sigtor params to be realized by any means. Only rarely do we get two good events in a row...let alone in February/early March. 

A lot folks buy into parameters too much (myself included). I'm about 30% buying into something more substantial - we bust well...

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13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX HWO for tomorrow is pretty 'meh'.  "isolated severe"

Its been that way for the past two days... on Sunday (when high risk mentioned we were in the D4 severe on SPC) it stated that there was no hazardous weather for the upcoming week at all

And spotter activation is not expected at this time... uh what?

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Eskimo Joe was giddy yesterday about tomorrow

Yeah IF we get sunshine. 

The 4k NAM clears us starting around 18z but it's a pretty small pocket centered right over our area. If that pocket does not materialize then we don't get sig severe. Pretty precarious as it always is. I'm not banking on sig clearing. 

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26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

@WxWatcher007 - Your scale might be at odds with itself if Eskimo Joe bites on this one at some point. I'm super hesitant to go in on it and it sounds like Ian doesn't like this for a big event either. Always count on Yoda, though ;)

I'm in on this event, but not weeneing out yet.  

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10 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So what are some streams some of you will have up to watch today's threat? It's looking pretty rough.

depends who is out chasing. if you have twitter, you can easily find storm chasers and other people to follow who will give you plenty of real time updates/information so you can couch chase (as I call it).

also (incoming shameless plug) be sure to follow @ustornadoes ;) 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

depends who is out chasing. if you have twitter, you can easily find storm chasers and other people to follow who will give you plenty of real time updates/information so you can couch chase (as I call it).

also (incoming shameless plug) be sure to follow @ustornadoes ;) 

I'll check them out. I'm really bummed TVN isn't around anymore. I don't think Severestudios is nearly as good.

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