Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Different set up .. .but, the physics are identical there to the Dec 2005 ... Very steep frontal slopes with thickness compression co-located under very superb q-vector forcing causes that excessive deepening deal and tho it looks extreme and probably is, the model is likely tapping into it for over 90% efficiency - off the charts. Anyway, if something like that took place you can count on some sort of isob wind bomb ... and perhaps one also augmented by entrainment from high aloft, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, met_fan said: ALY has 1" for Albany while 45 minutes away it's 8"-12"...that area gets boned every storm Been tough for them since Feb/Mar 2007....they did have a couple goodies like Feb 13-14, 2014 and I think Boxing Day 2010 was pretty decent there...but the recent decade of coastal storms hasn't been kind to them. They did well in the early to mid 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: LOL, i was thinking the same thing, i thought there might be another Nantucket in RI, but probably not. I was poking fun that James always says what state places are in. He mentioned Nantucket, MA. So I asked him his thoughts on Nantucket, RI. That RGEM is looking nice for central MA and SE. Hopefully some of those dynamics can deal a good hand to us in GC. I'm also wondering if my board meeting in Boston might be postponed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That's starting to become my concern as well. 4-8" BOS pvd SE.... with more NW just stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That's starting to become my concern as well. 4-8" BOS pvd SE.... with more NW reread your last 250 posts and look for the pattern. seek therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: just stop lol...I don't see very much evidence of getting 4" in SE MA...they'd have to mix or change to rain, which isn't happening outside maybe parts of the cape and islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I was poking fun that James always says what state places are in. He mentioned Nantucket, MA. So I asked him his thoughts on Nantucket, RI. That RGEM is looking nice for central MA and SE. Hopefully some of those dynamics can deal a good hand to us in GC. I'm also wondering if my board meeting in Boston might be postponed...... Not in range yet for you and here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not in range yet for you and here I'd really like to be up in Bath for this one. Alas, I'll be up there on Friday to shovel instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: lol...I don't see very much evidence of getting 4" in SE MA...they'd have to mix or change to rain, which isn't happening outside maybe parts of the cape and islands. Right, but i could see us outside of the major banding down this far (TBlizz will be in a better spot). Instead of 2-3" rates, we'll be flipping back and forth between 1/2" to 1"/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Right, but i could see us outside of the major banding down this far (TBlizz will be in a better spot). Instead of 2-3" rates, we'll be flipping back and forth between 1/2" to 1"/hr rates. Maybe I should have revised that to 6-8".. I agree we'll get more than 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd really like to be up in Bath for this one. Alas, I'll be up there on Friday to shovel instead. Pretty good bet on that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, NECT said: Was just thinking the same thing. The block island boys have imperial designs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: just stop There will be a pretty substantial subsistence zone... where it sets up could def hold totals under 8". Not sure why that is so ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Right, but i could see us outside of the major banding down this far (TBlizz will be in a better spot). Instead of 2-3" rates, we'll be flipping back and forth between 1/2" to 1"/hr rates. Yes that is very possible. But over 10-12 hours you'll still get like 7" if that happened. You might even get lucky near dryslot and get into a more convective band for a couple hours. It's better than playing chicken with a borderline scraper I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 18Z RGEM is ridiculous. 972 at 48 hours It has that look to it at hour 48 that maybe just maybe we could get 500 to close off and slow this sucker down for a little bit. 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Different set up .. .but, the physics are identical there to the Dec 2005 ... Very steep frontal slopes with thickness compression co-located under very superb q-vector forcing causes that excessive deepening deal and tho it looks extreme and probably is, the model is likely tapping into it for over 90% efficiency - off the charts. Anyway, if something like that took place you can count on some sort of isob wind bomb ... and perhaps one also augmented by entrainment from high aloft, too - He mention Dec 2005. Sound the alarms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: lol...I don't see very much evidence of getting 4" in SE MA...they'd have to mix or change to rain, which isn't happening outside maybe parts of the cape and islands. My biggest issue I see is subsidence and that may be around for a few hours. ML deformation band looks to be N & W of here but it won't rot there so I feel comfortable on 6-10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes that is very possible. But over 10-12 hours you'll still get like 7" if that happened. You might even get lucky near dryslot and get into a more convective band for a couple hours. It's better than playing chicken with a borderline scraper I think. there might even be a secondary max nearer the coast, these guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nice E MA jack on the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There will be a pretty substantial subsistence zone... where it sets up could def hold totals under 8". Not sure why that is so ridiculous take a break kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Will there be bands feeding in off the water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Yeah I don't think POU is going to be the jack. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, CarverWX said: Will there be bands feeding in off the water? Definitely ocean enhanced banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 FWIW GFS is further SE and weaker than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CarverWX said: Will there be bands feeding in off the water? Yes most likely as northeasterly winds transport arctic air into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z GFS delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z GFS is colder and 2mb weaker than the 12z at the same position right over the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 18z GFS delivers the colder airmass, but is strong still, not as strong as the GGEM/RGEM combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blizz said: FWIW GFS is further SE and weaker than 12z run. Well that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I know it comes off as hysterical fretting to people who don't live down in these specific regions, but the snow hole/relative snow hole look starts to get modeled as we close in, and this is starting to be the case now. These beastly bands being advertised will tend to choke us off, if they set up as currently modeled, which is typical. Still will be happy, because even within RI, I expect to do worse than most, and pretty much everyone in New England gets snow with this one, which is what we want. I'll be psyched with some wind and a decent snowfall, but I tend to guess on the low end IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Congrats E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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